UK Covid death toll

[billybassett]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

You have a new party to vote for. The Brexit Ltd Company ahem sorry party is to be an anti-lockdown party called Reform (opportunist or what?). That’s who you’ve aligned yourself with and the quotes I posted were from the delightful Julia Hartley-Brewer but they sound very familiar.

Aligned myself with them? What the fuck are you on about you wind up merchant.

I've been on here for 2 months saying the same thing over and over whilst you have been sucking up the Tory line..

You never post anything of material use that's relevant . You're just a smearer not a thinker.

You aren’t a public health spokesman or expert but you seem to want or don’t realise you’re portraying yourself up as such. As much as I dislike this government and as much as I’ve criticised them over their handling of the situation I don’t think it’s helpful for people to start undermining the central premise of trying to keep the NHS from being overwhelmed or keeping others as safe as possible. 

I posted the quotes from Hartley-Brewer because the language you have used is so similar to hers that your claim to be a free thinker amongst sheep rings hollow. The wider point I was trying to make was if you’re opinion is similar to Farage and Hartley-Brewer’s you might question it to some extent.

I’m not in a cushy job on furlough, I have a family and I know that the situation is doing harm but I will not agree with you that going back to a normal is a valid argument or even possible without significant harm.

What you were doing Derek was painting me as some right wing loon by posting Farage or whoever she is likenesses to me.

My wife works for a massive pharma. Now that doesn't make me an expert but it gives me access to info and a sounding board with many who are.

I'd like to hear what your argument is then for getting us out of this in a way that does the least damage overall. I've told you what I think. It's a normal to high respiratory season we have to deal with it. Delaying dealing with it will just kick the can down the road.

Please tell...

[billybassett]

Baggy1

I too hope there's no excess.deaths.

Facts are that the data govt used on Saturday was 3 weeks old. Today based on those assumptions there should be 1000 deaths. They haven't bothered to update their models.

Taking "cases" at face value for now : MRCU shows cases flatlined, Kings College who had million respondents shows cases flatlined.

Write to your MP. I'm not asking you to suspend your beliefs , but ask him to request that forecasts are updated using the latest data , to wait 7 days maybe . This sledgehammer to crack a nut that is getting smaller by the day will end up killing us all.

[baggy1]

My MP's Julian Knight - as big a cunt and Tory party toer of lines as you will ever get. I wouldn't ask him to piss on me if I was on fire.

Tomorrow will be an important day in terms of data with the figures for deaths up to 23rd October, on Wednesday we'll get more of an idea about hospitalisations to compare with the weekly figures of those in hospital.

[Ted Maul]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

[Derek Hardballs]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

[Protheroe]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

[Borin' Baggie]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

We don't have the welfare system to support that, a market based approach wouldn't work unless there's full compensation enabling those who do want to lock down to actually do that otherwise you're restricting choice through finances.

[baggy1]

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

I'm not certain that there are as many 'lockdown junkies' as there were (if there ever were many). I get the impression that everyone sees the damage that is caused by lockdown, but they also see the lack of choices that should be in placer after 8 months of empty promises and billions spent.

[The liquidator]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

We don't have the welfare system to support that, a market based approach wouldn't work unless there's full compensation enabling those who do want to lock down to actually do that otherwise you're restricting choice through finances.

What about doing the right thing remember those days putting others first??

[baggy1]

Week 43 (week ended 23rd Oct) figures are now out. Against the 5YA for the week the figures are up by 980 (10% higher than normal) and compared with 2019 they are up 718 (7.2% higher than last year). In a small period of time where we've seen increase in hospitalisations (since mid September) we are now seeing an increase in 'normal' deaths (since mid October). Again the majority of those excess deaths are in the over 65s group. Week 42 showed an increase on the 5YA of 7%, week 43 is showing an increase of 10%, so unfortunately not only are the numbers growing (669 excess in week 42 vs 980 in week 43) the % of the deaths for those weeks compared with the 5YA are also growing.

This is running slightly below the numbers that we saw at the time of the 1st lockdown. On the 23 Oct we had 6,518 in hospital with covid, that compares directly with the 27th / 28th March and the excess deaths for that week (week 13) was 1,011 against the 5YA and 1,274 against 2019, compared with this week of 980 and 718. So 5YA figure similar and compared with 2019 just above half. 

The problem comes with week 14 which shows a big jump, if we mirror that then we will be following a similar pattern and this leads me to believe might have bee the cause for the big government decision at the weekend when as they will have seen the provisional figures for Week 44 (we will see them next week). If week 44 follows a similar course to week 14 (as week 43 is comparable to week 13) then that would spook them rightly. This is me theorising as I don't know what they show.

Keep safe folks.