UK Covid death toll

[foreveralbion]

B1 the stat man!

are thse figures you use people actually in hospital or people who were admitted at some point that week?

is there any data that shows how many people are in hospital purely for covid?

[Derek Hardballs]

Who said this?

Genuinely, I have never despaired more for my wonderful country than I do today. If we give in to the madness of a second lockdown, what on earth is the point of anything? Not a single life will be saved in the long run. Giving up our freedom & our rights for NOTHING. I despair.

You do realise that a vaccine won't be 100% effective - more likely 50% - so we still have to live with the virus, right? Do you even bother reading any research by actual experts in their fields?

Yes, that was the point of the first lockdown. We now have all the extra capacity we need. No second waves with any other coronavirus. These are normal level respiratory infections and deaths for this time of year. You're welcome.

[baggy1]

B1 the stat man!

are thse figures you use people actually in hospital or people who were admitted at some point that week?

is there any data that shows how many people are in hospital purely for covid?

They're the figures from the gov website of people in hospital with covid. There have been some on here that say that these are just people in hospital for anything (broken leg) that have had a covid test and were positive, however I struggle to see the big conspiracy whereby everyone wants to overinflate the figures. 

I'm going with the figures reported as being those in hospital (at the point of reporting) being treated for covid. One thing to note though there are less people on ventilators this time round which is possibly because of different treatment and possibly also because it is less severe this time.

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/...%20Kingdom

[billybassett]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

[Derek Hardballs]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

You have a new party to vote for. The Brexit Ltd Company ahem sorry party is to be an anti-lockdown party called Reform (opportunist or what?). That’s who you’ve aligned yourself with and the quotes I posted were from the delightful Julia Hartley-Brewer but they sound very familiar.

[billybassett]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

You have a new party to vote for. The Brexit Ltd Company ahem sorry party is to be an anti-lockdown party called Reform (opportunist or what?). That’s who you’ve aligned yourself with and the quotes I posted were from the delightful Julia Hartley-Brewer but they sound very familiar.

Aligned myself with them? What the fuck are you on about you wind up merchant.

I've been on here for 2 months saying the same thing over and over whilst you have been sucking up the Tory line..

You never post anything of material use that's relevant . You're just a smearer not a thinker.

[Derek Hardballs]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

You have a new party to vote for. The Brexit Ltd Company ahem sorry party is to be an anti-lockdown party called Reform (opportunist or what?). That’s who you’ve aligned yourself with and the quotes I posted were from the delightful Julia Hartley-Brewer but they sound very familiar.

Aligned myself with them? What the fuck are you on about you wind up merchant.

I've been on here for 2 months saying the same thing over and over whilst you have been sucking up the Tory line..

You never post anything of material use that's relevant . You're just a smearer not a thinker.

You aren’t a public health spokesman or expert but you seem to want or don’t realise you’re portraying yourself up as such. As much as I dislike this government and as much as I’ve criticised them over their handling of the situation I don’t think it’s helpful for people to start undermining the central premise of trying to keep the NHS from being overwhelmed or keeping others as safe as possible. 

I posted the quotes from Hartley-Brewer because the language you have used is so similar to hers that your claim to be a free thinker amongst sheep rings hollow. The wider point I was trying to make was if you’re opinion is similar to Farage and Hartley-Brewer’s you might question it to some extent.

I’m not in a cushy job on furlough, I have a family and I know that the situation is doing harm but I will not agree with you that going back to a normal is a valid argument or even possible without significant harm.

[baggy1]

There are no facts in what you are saying there Billy, just speculation and interpretation. You are gambling on a theory that covid isn’t going to impact on the country in the way that it did earlier in the year. And as much as I dislike the government I don’t think they are blaming last years NHS problems on covid.

Plenty of facts but you refuse to listen.

Still nothing from you on the shocking PCR tests

Still nothing from you on how we could have possibly cured the 4 other seasonal respiratory viruses and pneumonia.

Still nothing from you on classing deaths from covid tests as Covid deaths even though they were either nosocomial or comorbid.

Still nothing from you on why the lockdown and masks will work this time but they didn't for 10 weeks before.

Still nothing on our comparison with Sweden.

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

You are losing it mate, I have tried throughout this to keep the facts simple and not run off looking at red herrings or fall for the 'look over here' fantasist theories around testing, Sweden and whatever distraction tactic is being used by the twitterati today.

Let's take this back to basics, Lockdown is a blunt instrument, one that should be used as a last resort, it doesn't cure covid, it delays it and buys time to fix the other tools in the armoury. Unfortunately we have a government that are an absolute shambles who have spend more time looking after their mates than the people of the UK. We should have had an effective test and trace system in place, we should have been able to identify where a flare up was and close that locality, for this failure alone we should have had resignations from at least the health secretary, or the head of test and trace, or the prime minister himself. Instead we are arguing amongst ourselves about which sock to put on first. And to be clear, I don't agree with a lockdown or want one, but we have been put in a position where there really is no choice. It is damaging to the economy and peoples health but you seem to be directing your anger at me rather than those in power.

If you want examples of effective lockdowns look at South Korea, Australia, and in fact virtually every country in the world that is now managing it with, at worst regional lockdowns. However it is pointless comparing us with anywhere else because we have different demographics. And as for Sweden, FFS man look at how they compare with their neighbours not us - they are twice our size geographically and have one sixth of our population. Their biggest city has 1 million people, we are not comparable. 

PCR tests - what the fuck has that got to do with anything I have ever posted. I have avoided using cases or number of tests completed because they are useless statistics. like I've said keep it simple, look at the number of people being kept in hospital on covid wards, that number is increasing at a rate of 1.4 a week for the last six weeks, if we carry on doing what we are doing, what makes you think that will change? I said weeks ago that we would have 10k in hospital by the end of the month, we had 9.2k in hospital on the 31st - I'm not some magic soothsayer, I just followed an obvious path that we were on because it's blindingly fucking obvious. 

Masks - what is the problem with wearing one, if it does absolutely fuck all good and no harm what is the problem? As the jury is out on hard evidence but we have the basic evidence that doctors and nurses have been wearing them for decades in protecting against respiratory diseases, lets go with it instead of crying like babbies because it infringes your civil liberties.

And classification of deaths - what the actual fuck again. I've simply posted the excess deaths this year, they are at 55k in England and Wales for 2020 against the 5 year average (against 2019 it is 62K). If you know of any reason other than covid that would have caused this then let us know. Earlier on in the year some on here were saying "it will average out over the year, they are just dying early" but that hasn't happened. You are banging on about the excess deaths since June have been none existent - it was the fucking summer, of course respiratory diseases tend not to kill too many people at that time of year. Since the start of June there have been 169 people less died in 2020 compared with 2019; compared with the 5 year average there have been 1,983 more people die in 2020. We will find out from this point forward if there is a problem, not comparing with the summer months.

And finally I've tried to debate with you at all points, we've both had minor jabs at each other but nothing more than teasing and playground stuff. By taking it up a level and having a go at me personallywhen all i have done is post simple stats and extrapolating them then you are out of order. I try and be civil on all matters but if you want to take it up a level then I'm more than happy to ridicule you and your loony tune ideas - that would be counterproductive and stupid, so take a step back from insulting me so that we can continue the debate.

[billybassett]

Thank you for actually replying to the points. I wasnt insulting you I was actually interested to hear what you think about the points I made because you're continually posting about cases and excess deaths and have until now refused to engage on some of the other key points.

Now I know where you come from so fine. The fact you skip over the PCR tests is telling.

PCR tests have replaced the virus. In Sep and Oct people dying of respiratory illness is lower this year than the 5 yr average.

I've never once said there have been less excess deaths this year. I've not said I didn't think on balance a lockdown earlier in the year wasn't the right thing to do. But now we know what the virus is, we know it cannot be stopped. It makes no sense and protecting the NHS at all costs is simply a ridiculous approach.

You've not said anything about flu disappearing. Some great data out there across the world Ankit this.

We already hear that lockdown may go on longer. I'm sure Dom has it planned where Boris comes out of Nr10 the week before Christmas like Santa giving us a big present of some freedom.

I think I'll draw a line.here..I'm a single voice at the head of a massive cave shouting to the thousands in the dark all scared to come out.

[baggy1]

On a side note, can we put something else to bed here. Was it the 2018-19 winter period that people keep talking about excess deaths being through the roof but nobody was calling for a lockdown then. December 2018 had total deaths of 39,084 and Jan / Feb 2019 had 104,284 - total 143,368; the 5 year average for December at that point was 40,280 and for Jan / Feb was 108,841 - total 149,121. So 2018 / 19 winter had about 6k less deaths than the 5 year average.

If I've got the year wrong let me know and I'll try and dig out the data.

---

You've been sold one and your pants are down. Your facts are the facts of the madhouse. Carry on locking eh? Goodbye Britain I'm.sure you'll be happy picking through the ashes.

Thank you for actually replying to the points. I wasnt insulting you I was actually interested to hear what you think about the points I made because you're continually posting about cases and excess deaths and have until now refused to engage on some of the other key points.

Now I know where you come from so fine. The fact you skip over the PCR tests is telling.

PCR tests have replaced the virus. In Sep and Oct people dying of respiratory illness is lower this year than the 5 yr average.

I've never once said there have been less excess deaths this year. I've not said I didn't think on balance a lockdown earlier in the year wasn't the right thing to do. But now we know what the virus is, we know it cannot be stopped. It makes no sense and protecting the NHS at all costs is simply a ridiculous approach.

You've not said anything about flu disappearing. Some great data out there across the world Ankit this.

We already hear that lockdown may go on longer. I'm sure Dom has it planned where Boris comes out of Nr10 the week before Christmas like Santa giving us a big present of some freedom.

I think I'll draw a line.here..I'm a single voice at the head of a massive cave shouting to the thousands in the dark all scared to come out.

Yes you were, it's very clear what you were saying. 

And I'll go back to what I've said every time, the hospitalisations are increasing week on week and we have to do something to stop that trend otherwise it will continue. Or are you saying that that the figures of people in hospital with covid are exaggerated, and if so can you put a figure on that exaggeration or is it just a gut feeling?

Lockdown is a farce that should never have had to be used, the fact that we are having to use it shows how useless this bunch are.

As for flu, it might be mixed up with the covid figures, we may be in a situation that covid sits on top of it, who knows, i'll go back to what I keep saying, the hospital beds are filling up, i don't give a fuck if that is with covid, flu or the clap; if beds fill up with respiratory diseases then there are less beds for other procedures. If we see the cases use in the way they have been for weeks then that will happen.

I pray to God (if I did that) you are right and that we won't see an increase in excess deaths, but you don't know and neither do i.