UK Covid death toll

[billybassett]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

1% of us won't reach our next birthday.

Covid mortality is a small factor of that. Like seasonal influenza. The stuff you've posted has zero context. We live in a world where each year there are a multitude of killers. Nearly every year up to 20000 people die of flu. We don't lock down every year.

It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary.

This is why we are where we are. Sensationalist number throwing with no context to scare us.

What is 1% if not a sensationalist number? I agree it has to be taken in context, just like Covid figures.  The UK mortality rate has been rising since 2014 - something that should really worry a lot of people but politicians, or at least this lot, has chosen to ignore. I stated that I'm not sure what should be done with regard to policy on Covid, and would agree that wholesale lockdowns are not the answer, but I still would like you to elucidate on what Everyone who can should get back to normal” means.

Which section of the population lies the "normal" and what should be done with them? Do teachers over the age of 55 for example continue in schools, an environment where they will almost certainly be exposed to large children with the virus, etc., etc? Your is too simplistic and fraught with variables.  Just like Covid.

I'm not interested in nit-picking I only know that the answer to the problems we face is not a straightforward/simple one as you seem to imply.  And back to the fact that one of the main reasons for what passes as strategy so far is to protect NHS staff and try to keep hospital admissions to a minimum. The present course seems not to be working but the one you advocate would, I suggest, result in a nightmare that I hope I never have to encounter or deal with.

1% is all Deaths in a year not just Covid. Circa 600,000 people.

What Everyone who can should get back to normal means in my mind is effectively doing what we do each year in Flu epidemic. We live with it we manage it, those who are more vulnerable take precautions but we have to live with the risk that something may happen and we each take an individual responsibility for it. What we don't do, even though we know 12-20,000 people a year die of flu is stop kids from educating, kill businesses, stop people who need treatment for other things getting that treatment and ignore mental health issues (see the spike in suicides).

[billybassett]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

My final comment I think as I'm getting massively agitated about all this.

It's not a roll of the dice. Do you roll the dice when you get in a car? It's less of a risk than doing that.

No one is saying we should let the vulnerable die. In 2018 an ineffective flu jab was reported to have been the cause of upto 50000 excess deaths (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa...o2017final).

Did we lockdown, did we review infection rates of flu that year, did we stop people getting other treatment, did we kill businesses. Was the view to let the vulnerable and those with underlying conditions fend for themselves - must have been so because I don't remember any such measures.

Somehow we're now locked into this mindset that this is a one off event and it's lethal - it's not and it's not

[PeakBaggie]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

It's not a roll of the dice. Do you roll the dice when you get in a car? It's less of a risk than doing that.

Billy - First all of all not everyone drives or wants to drive, but everyone has the need to take in Oxygen.

Of course you roll the dice everytime you drive off in a car, but you can mitigate your risk by any number
of measures, speed, awareness and careful driving and of course if you give up driving completly your 
risk will be zero. Giving up breathing is not much of an option for the living.

[Shabby Russian]

I think the problem here is not so much how many people will die - although of course that is important.

But what happens to the economy and our public services if we just 'let it rip'

Days lost through sickness will rise and it won't be even throughout the country, it will be specific to geographical location and maybe to certain types of industry.

There may be interruption to public services due to staff absences - schools closed, home care notavailable.

The there is the real threat to the NHS - what happens when demand outstrips supply in the NHS. When there isn't enough doctors, nurses to attend to everyone who requires urgent medical attention. And it won't just be covid patients who may not get attention, patients with strokes, heart attacks, severe accidents etc.

I don't know how long it would take for a country the size of the UK to achieve herd immunity but we are not talking weeks - it may be a very uncomfortable period in our history if we decide to just let it rip.

[billybassett]

I think the problem here is not so much how many people will die - although of course that is important.

But what happens to the economy and our public services if we just 'let it rip'

Days lost through sickness will rise and it won't be even throughout the country, it will be specific to geographical location and maybe to certain types of industry.

There may be interruption to public services due to staff absences  - schools closed, home care notavailable.

The there is the real threat to the NHS - what happens when demand outstrips supply in the NHS. When there isn't enough doctors, nurses to attend to everyone who requires urgent medical attention. And it won't just be covid patients who may not get attention, patients with strokes, heart attacks, severe accidents etc.

I don't know how long it would take for a country the size of the UK to achieve herd immunity but we are not talking weeks - it may be a very uncomfortable period in our history if we decide to just let it rip.

The consensus is that the HIT is nearly here.

[billybassett]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

It's not a roll of the dice. Do you roll the dice when you get in a car? It's less of a risk than doing that.

Billy - First all of all not everyone drives or wants to drive, but everyone has the need to take in Oxygen.

Of course you roll the dice everytime you drive off in a car, but you can mitigate your risk by any number
of measures, speed, awareness and careful driving and of course if you give up driving completly your 
risk will be zero. Giving up breathing is not much of an option for the living.

So you think we should all go into our homes and breathe our own oxygen and to hell with the outcome?

[Fido]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

It's not a roll of the dice. Do you roll the dice when you get in a car? It's less of a risk than doing that.

Billy - First all of all not everyone drives or wants to drive, but everyone has the need to take in Oxygen.

Of course you roll the dice everytime you drive off in a car, but you can mitigate your risk by any number
of measures, speed, awareness and careful driving and of course if you give up driving completly your 
risk will be zero. Giving up breathing is not much of an option for the living.

You can be as careful as you like but it only takes Mr HGV to drop off at the wheel or some fugger to run a red light and it's out of your control. Same as with Covid - someone else is not as hygienically disposed as yourself goes around sniffling and handling stuff all around the supermarket and you can be stuffed. Politicians, having gone through an initial lockdown are now petrified of pressing the release button, so to speak, in case things do go horribly wrong. But then, of course, politics is a short term game and to fugg with not even future generations but those that are still around after the next election.

[Derek Hardballs]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

1% of us won't reach our next birthday.

Covid mortality is a small factor of that. Like seasonal influenza. The stuff you've posted has zero context. We live in a world where each year there are a multitude of killers. Nearly every year up to 20000 people die of flu. We don't lock down every year.

It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary.

This is why we are where we are. Sensationalist number throwing with no context to scare us.

The whole point of this data was to show the difference between the mortality rates due to Covid 19 compared to the flu and pneumonia. Something that those who are arguing loudly to abandon lock down measures frequently compare as proof that the risks are over stated. It’s on the money rather than out of context. I don’t know how you can draw from those figures that the virus is ‘rather ordinary’. What are are you comparing them to? The data is straight from the ONS site and not simply opinion to suggest they are sensational is daft. 

Also just looking at deaths is a blunt instrument how many people suffer medium and long term ill effects from the flu compared to Covid 19? We are currently putting plans in place for those recovering from Long Covid in the form of specific clinics. This isn’t ordinary or sensationalist. No government would put their economy under such strain particularly as it will inevitably see their popularity nosedive as a result.

[PeakBaggie]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

It's not a roll of the dice. Do you roll the dice when you get in a car? It's less of a risk than doing that.

Billy - First all of all not everyone drives or wants to drive, but everyone has the need to take in Oxygen.

Of course you roll the dice everytime you drive off in a car, but you can mitigate your risk by any number
of measures, speed, awareness and careful driving and of course if you give up driving completly your 
risk will be zero. Giving up breathing is not much of an option for the living.

So you think we should all go into our homes and breathe our own oxygen and to hell with the outcome?

eh ... I think comparing the risk of driving to that of a vrius is a tad bonkers

[Birdman1811]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?

Considering how 'society' has treated me over the last few years, I really don't give a shit about anyone past my immediate family and close friends. You'll never see the kindness and love from me, cynicism and suspicion, yes.

However we have to be balanced, letting it just go is stupid for many reasons.