UK Covid death toll

[Derek Hardballs]

There are going to be deaths Dekka, that is unavoidable, there are with many other virus including Flu and especially at this time of year. The point being made on all the other posts is that it isn't getting out of control as it was at the start of the year. That graph is telling me there we about 75 deaths from Covid in a month in the west midlands, it isn't telling me much else - age for instance. It is also showing that the deaths are rising - again that ties in with what we are saying but again not in the numbers that we had in March / April. That figure will probably carry on going up btw as we get further into the winter, but that is in line with all other deaths at this time of year. For example (including the week ended 29th Sept these are the following weeks in 2019 total figures)
9,517 9,799 9,973 10,156 10,021 10,164 10,697 10,650 10,882 10,958 10,816 11,188 11,926 7,533

It really is a case of monitoring this week by week and dealing with the best data we can get our hands on. Where did that graph come from btw?

And looking again I'm not certain what the link is to the quote you have on there - help me out here.

B1 I meant to just put the graph up but inadvertently posted as a reply. There isn’t any link but I think it’s important to note local data. It’s from Lisa McNally who is the lead in Public Health Sandwell.

[baggy1]

Nice one thanks Dekka,

[baggy1]

Week 39 figures (week ended 25th September) are out and again a (high) average week. Figures for week 39 are 9,634 deaths compared with 9,517 in 2019 and the 5YA of 9,377 (all for England and Wales). The deaths for the week are above average but only just and are now running at about average figures for the last 16 weeks overall (back to week ended 12th June). Excess deaths for the year against the 5 Years average (for E&W) is just short of 54k and against 2019 is 61.3k.

As a side note, in all of the figures there is one outlier that if I were analysing it, and that is week 36 which only registered 7,739 deaths  which was a massive 1.5k below that weeks average (no real issue with the figure but I would be looking at it as an anomaly) as that is also below the average for any week during the year at a point where you would be expecting it to rise.

The patients admitted to hospital figures continue to rise but again slowly compared with the earlier part of the tear and show 386 admitted in England on the 3rd October, again still below the figure when they started measuring properly on March 19th which was 586. It is rising though and something to watch carefully.

Aldo the same with patients in hospital with 2,593 in England on the 5th Oct. This is virtually the same as the figure on the 22nd March but not rising as quickly as at that point (21st March was 2,092 and the 4th Oct was 2,329).

Patients on ventilators is also rising with 331 on the 5th October, a long way off the April figures of 1,494 on the 1st April.

All in all this shows that it is still with us and I would expect it to be rising at this time of year with the weather changing meaning more time indoors, students returning and other seasonal factors but nothing that shouldn't have been predicted.

Keep safe folks - keep wearing the masks, washing hands and social distancing where possible.

[billybassett]

Thanks baggy1.

Useful video here https://youtu.be/LrRijSa8494

There's also some good data showing that none of the local lockdowns have actually worked and that they are counter productive in the long term.

The govt doesn't have a clue, it had a 1-5 system, a 3 word catchphrase and now it's a daily free for all.

We need to flip this on it's head now. Everyone who can should get back to normal.

[Brentbaggie]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

[Derek Hardballs]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

[billybassett]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

1% of us won't reach our next birthday.

Covid mortality is a small factor of that. Like seasonal influenza. The stuff you've posted has zero context. We live in a world where each year there are a multitude of killers. Nearly every year up to 20000 people die of flu. We don't lock down every year.

It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary.

This is why we are where we are. Sensationalist number throwing with no context to scare us.

[Baggie_Nick]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

1% of us won't reach our next birthday.

Covid mortality is a small factor of that. Like seasonal influenza. The stuff you've posted has zero context. We live in a world where each year there are a multitude of killers. Nearly every year up to 20000 people die of flu. We don't lock down every year.

It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary.

This is why we are where we are. Sensationalist number throwing with no context to scare us.

Less and less people will stick to restrictions now anyway. People have had enough. And with no exit strategy what is their motivation? Yes I know about saving lives but lots of people I've spoken to who are 'at risk' are now saying 'fuck it'.

[Brentbaggie]

Er, the lockdowns don’t work, cases are rising rapidly and health authorities in the north are warning about the danger of hospitals being unable to cope and you argue we should return to normal. I don’t get your logic. What do we dispense with? Do you mean everyone over 56 say just stays in their houses but everyone else do as they wish? The figures above are up to the 26th September. Numbers are rising exponentially every 11 days so I’m not sure you’re recommendation will help. It’s no longer the case that numbers admitted with Covid are low or those on ventilatiors are rising slowly as of the last few days. I’m not sure how we peg them back to safeguard hospitals and NHS staff but I don’t understand what or who “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means or refers to.

This is a cyclical debate on here now, with no real answer to the question what happens to the most vulnerable if everyone goes back to normal (It’s not going to be normal as a pandemic isn’t what we are used to) ! It’s not just the over 55s it’s thousands of people confined to their homes for ex amount of months / years. If that is the answer then society is fecked!

---

For the tin eared...

Here’s a stat I’ve just released by the ONS so can we please stop chatting crap!

Of all death occurrences between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) compared with 13,619 deaths due to pneumonia and 394 deaths due to influenza.

Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020.

The highest number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurred in January 2020, however influenza and pneumonia deaths were below the five-year average (2015 to 2019) in every month.

Deaths due to COVID-19 were higher than deaths due to influenza and pneumonia between March and June.

Age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for deaths due to COVID-19 were statistically significantly higher than mortality rates due to influenza and pneumonia when compared with the five-year average and 2020 rates.

The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes due to COVID-19 was almost double the proportion of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia (30.0% and 15.2% respectively).

In comparison with the deaths due to influenza and pneumonia occurring in the year to 31 August 2020, deaths due to COVID-19 have been higher than every year monthly data are available (1959 to 2020).
Statistician's comment

“More than three times as many deaths were recorded between January and August this year where COVID-19 was the underlying cause compared to influenza and pneumonia."

“The mortality rate for COVID-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average."

“Since 1959, which is when ONS monthly death records began, the number of deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in the first eight months of every year have been lower than the number of COVID-19 deaths seen, so far, in 2020.”

Sarah Caul, Head of Mortality Analysis

1% of us won't reach our next birthday.

Covid mortality is a small factor of that. Like seasonal influenza. The stuff you've posted has zero context. We live in a world where each year there are a multitude of killers. Nearly every year up to 20000 people die of flu. We don't lock down every year.

It is already clear that, far from being an unusually virulent & lethal virus, improving estimates of the morbidity & mortality associated with covid19 show it to be rather ordinary.

This is why we are where we are. Sensationalist number throwing with no context to scare us.

What is 1% if not a sensationalist number? I agree it has to be taken in context, just like Covid figures.  The UK mortality rate has been rising since 2014 - something that should really worry a lot of people but politicians, or at least this lot, has chosen to ignore. I stated that I'm not sure what should be done with regard to policy on Covid, and would agree that wholesale lockdowns are not the answer, but I still would like you to elucidate on what “Everyone who can should get back to normal” means.  

Which section of the population lies outwith the "normal" and what should be done with them? Do teachers over the age of 55 for example continue in schools, an environment where they will almost certainly be exposed to large numbers of children with the virus, etc., etc? Your answer is too simplistic and fraught with variables.  Just like Covid. 

I'm not interested in nit-picking I only know that the answer to the problems we face is not a straightforward/simple one as you seem to imply.  And I come back to the fact that one of the main reasons for what passes as strategy so far is to protect NHS staff and try to keep hospital admissions to a minimum. The present course seems not to be working but the one you advocate would, I suggest, result in a nightmare that I hope I never have to encounter or deal with.

[PeakBaggie]

The truth is that you can torture stats until you reach the facts that best suit your agenda or viewpoint, this
is happening all over social media and beyond. It has almost become an obsession for some.

The real truth is that the virus spreads person to person and in the worst cases can and will kill, in other cases
it will hardly cause a sniffle. This call for herd immunity is really a call to let the virus rip, roll the dice and hope that
you, your loved ones and friends can weather the spread. It is a huge risk. Have we really got to the point where 
we dont care about the most vunerable in our society, that pints down the pub are worth putting those on the medical 
front line at risk along with our older family members?

What happened to the kindness and love of a few months ago?