Next Season

[backsidebaggie]

I think you 1% people need to have a look at the official figures not mine or yours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Out of 970,618 which have either recovered or died - 20% have died 195,114
That's 20% - how anyone thinks that will end up at 1 % in the UK is beyond me.
Have a look for yourselves at the facts.

I'm aware of the facts. I'll explain. Feel free to do a bit of research on this and you'll see (some of these points have even been discussed on this thread).

The 20% figure is deaths per confirmed case. Not deaths per case.

At present only those with symptoms in hospital are being tested (and now health workers). Its widely known that a very decent percentage (most say 80% of sufferers) have had mild symptoms. Virtually none of those have been tested, so they're not confirmed cases. As such, there's multiple times more people had corona compared to those who have tested positive for corona (which is where the 20% figure comes from). This bring the 20% down massively (to 4% perhaps, but just a ball park figure to illustrate the way it'll be calculated properly in the end).

In addition, we still don't know how many people have had it who are asymptomatic. None of these people are likely to have been tested, and are therefore also not included in the figures. Research has shown wide variations in the percentage who get it who show no symptoms. Some studies suggest it may be really high, some low. Iceland's official stats indicate 50%. However many it is, this also brings the proportion down significantly again (if it was 50% it would half the mortality rate again, so ball park, purely for illustrative purposes we're at 2%).

Then you get improvements in treatment as the months go on, so the mortality rate drops further as time goes by. So then we're arriving towards 1% (again purely to illustrate).

That's how it gets worked out. A quick google and you'll find this is how experts are arriving at figures around 1%, some higher, some lower.

Therefore have a look yourself at why the facts now (20%) will bear no resemblance to the final mortality rate. It'll be miles smaller.

Wonder when the penny will drop....i'll keep listening

Dunno, I can't explain it any clearer than that

[74bus]

I think you 1% people need to have a look at the official figures not mine or yours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Out of 970,618 which have either recovered or died - 20% have died 195,114
That's 20% - how anyone thinks that will end up at 1 % in the UK is beyond me.
Have a look for yourselves at the facts.

I'm aware of the facts. I'll explain. Feel free to do a bit of research on this and you'll see (some of these points have even been discussed on this thread).

The 20% figure is deaths per confirmed case. Not deaths per case.

At present only those with symptoms in hospital are being tested (and now health workers). Its widely known that a very decent percentage (most say 80% of sufferers) have had mild symptoms. Virtually none of those have been tested, so they're not confirmed cases. As such, there's multiple times more people had corona compared to those who have tested positive for corona (which is where the 20% figure comes from). This bring the 20% down massively (to 4% perhaps, but just a ball park figure to illustrate the way it'll be calculated properly in the end).

In addition, we still don't know how many people have had it who are asymptomatic. None of these people are likely to have been tested, and are therefore also not included in the figures. Research has shown wide variations in the percentage who get it who show no symptoms. Some studies suggest it may be really high, some low. Iceland's official stats indicate 50%. However many it is, this also brings the proportion down significantly again (if it was 50% it would half the mortality rate again, so ball park, purely for illustrative purposes we're at 2%).

Then you get improvements in treatment as the months go on, so the mortality rate drops further as time goes by. So then we're arriving towards 1% (again purely to illustrate).

That's how it gets worked out. A quick google and you'll find this is how experts are arriving at figures around 1%, some higher, some lower.

Therefore have a look yourself at why the facts now (20%) will bear no resemblance to the final mortality rate. It'll be miles smaller.

Wonder when the penny will drop....i'll keep listening

Dunno, I can't explain it any clearer than that

Good post, mate, but there'll still be people on here who know more than the experts.

[Fulham Fallout]

Anyhow, back to the OP, I still can’t see next season going ahead. Well, not with any fans being allowed inside the grounds.

[DAVE]

Love armchair epidemiologists. Remi has it pretty fucking close. Nobody knows.

[Fulham Fallout]

Love armchair epidemiologists. Remi has it pretty fucking close. Nobody knows.

Seeing as social distancing is envisaged to be here until at leat the end of the year I can’t see how large gatherings will be allowed.

[Remi_Moses]

Love armchair epidemiologists. Remi has it pretty fucking close. Nobody knows.

Nobody knows we are all guessing - But the 1% does equate to 3 million having already have been infected in the UK.
Nobody believes that even them? I think most people accept approx 20,000 declared hospital deaths are true and upto 
10,000 others, from care homes and normal home, etc, etc
So I'm guesstimating approx 30,000 have passed and a complete shot in the dark by me that 1 million have been infected.
If for example you thought 1/2 million had been infected the death rate would be 6% 
Anyway that's where I get my 3% from. Hence I cannot see 1% being anywhere near the mark.
I'm sorry but the other posters numbers make no sense even to a numerical idiot like me.
If you believe 3 million have been infected the death rate is 1%
If you believe 1 million have been infected the death rate is 3%
Take your pick.  
My penny is fine.

[coxy134]

Just been reading what Gary Neville has to say.An employer cannot put  players livelihoods at risk He says as part owner of a football club, there will be liability issues. we have players who have diabetes and asthma do you think I would put there lives at risk for a game of football, no chance .As for testing players he says as for football clubs getting tens of thousands of testing kits when the front line can’t get them it ain’t gonna happen.  I still believe football in this country is finished for the foreseeable future.

Not sure why Diabetes is an issue? 
My son is type 1.

[backsidebaggie]

Love armchair epidemiologists. Remi has it pretty fucking close. Nobody knows.

Nobody knows we are all guessing - But the 1% does equate to 3 million having already have been infected in the UK.
Nobody believes that even them? I think most people accept approx 20,000 declared hospital deaths are true and upto 
10,000 others, from care homes and normal home, etc, etc
So I'm guesstimating approx 30,000 have passed and a complete shot in the dark by me that 1 million have been infected.
If for example you thought 1/2 million had been infected the death rate would be 6% 
Anyway that's where I get my 3% from. Hence I cannot see 1% being anywhere near the mark.
I'm sorry but the other posters numbers make no sense even to a numerical idiot like me.
If you believe 3 million have been infected the death rate is 1%
If you believe 1 million have been infected the death rate is 3%
Take your pick.  
My penny is fine.

That’s not taking into account improvements in treatment as the months go by. Plus the figures are death with corona, not from corona. 1% seems to be the average predicted by scientists if you look it up. Even less if anything. So if it is laughable, there’s a hell of a lot of scientists seem to have a laughable opinion.

[Remi_Moses]

Just been reading what Gary Neville has to say.An employer cannot put  players livelihoods at risk He says as part owner of a football club, there will be liability issues. we have players who have diabetes and asthma do you think I would put there lives at risk for a game of football, no chance .As for testing players he says as for football clubs getting tens of thousands of testing kits when the front line can’t get them it ain’t gonna happen.  I still believe football in this country is finished for the foreseeable future.

Not sure why Diabetes is an issue? 
My son is type 1.

Increases risk and severity according to the medics.

[74bus]

Love armchair epidemiologists. Remi has it pretty fucking close. Nobody knows.

How you can say 'Remi has it fucking close' and 'Nobody knows' in the same post is beyond me.  I don't know either, but I'd prefer to listen to the scientific experts who've analysed every bit of available data, rather than some bloke throwing out random numbers on a football forum.