Next Season

[backsidebaggie]

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

No chance 2m. Death rate will be max 1% overall when everything is factored in

Agreed, absolutely no chance it’ll be even close to 2M.

I think you’ll be fairly close with your prediction of 1% overall for those who catch it.

[74bus]

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

Exactly. 

[Remi_Moses]

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

Exactly. 

Here we go ??? 1% is that stupid it's almost laughable. Predictions from those that say "no one has any idea". 

[Fulham Fallout]

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

No chance 2m. Death rate will be max 1% overall when everything is factored in

I agree with you on around 1% fatality rate (using Germany’s stats).  
So 1% of say 65m UK population is 650k deaths.  
As the fatality rate to the number requiring hospitalisation is 1/10, that means 6.5m people would require hospital treatment.  And you think I’m scaremongering?  <shakes head>

[backsidebaggie]

Remi_Moses

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

Exactly. 

Here we go ??? 1% is that stupid it's almost laughable. Predictions from those that say "no one has any idea". 

1% is a figure quoted by many experts for percentage who will die if they get corona (not 1% of the population). Its not stupid at all. Some think higher, some lower. Hence its difficult to make an accurate prediction. It'll be nowhere near 2M. Even the worst estimates at the beginning if there were no measures taken were much less than 2M (600k).

[Remi_Moses]

I think you 1% people need to have a look at the official figures not mine or yours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Out of 970,618 which have either recovered or died - 20% have died 195,114
That's 20% - how anyone thinks that will end up at 1 % in the UK is beyond me.
Have a look for yourselves at the facts.

[billybassett]

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

No chance 2m. Death rate will be max 1% overall when everything is factored in

I agree with you on around 1% fatality rate (using Germany’s stats).  
So 1% of say 65m UK population is 650k deaths.  
As the fatality rate to the number requiring hospitalisation is 1/10, that means 6.5m people would require hospital treatment.  And you think I’m scaremongering?  <shakes head>

What youve completely missed is that a large proportion of those people would be hospitalised anyway due to underlying conditions. In fact taking out those already with 1or 2 additional conditions eeduces those figures significantly.

[Remi_Moses]

Remi_Moses

We also don’t know the number of asymptomatic cases. Reports are varying wildly as to what the percentage may be. If that’s a reasonably high percentage, then it’s very possible it could be 50 tines the number reported that have had Covid, given most who have had mild symptoms just stayed at home and didn’t get tested and therefore aren’t in the confirmed cases numbers either.

There’s so many statistical variables it’s a nightmare trying to make accurate predictions.

When you have variables - you guess high on some numbers and low on others - so your results are never miles 
away from the real number. As long as you are reasonable you won't be far out. 

Long term with no vaccine, the UK can expect approaching 2 million deaths from CV19 directly or indirectly.

Exactly. 

Here we go ??? 1% is that stupid it's almost laughable. Predictions from those that say "no one has any idea". 

1% is a figure quoted by many experts for percentage who will die if they get corona (not 1% of the population). Its not stupid at all. Some think higher, some lower. Hence its difficult to make an accurate prediction. It'll be nowhere near 2M. Even the worst estimates at the beginning if there were no measures taken were much less than 2M (600k).

The general thought is 3% of those that catch will die, it is certainly not 1% - if it was 1% and we have had approx 30,000 deaths your suggesting   over 3 million have already been infected within the UK . I wish people would do the sums before posting. Unless you genuinely believe that over 3 million have already had it ?

[backsidebaggie]

I think you 1% people need to have a look at the official figures not mine or yours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Out of 970,618 which have either recovered or died - 20% have died 195,114
That's 20% - how anyone thinks that will end up at 1 % in the UK is beyond me.
Have a look for yourselves at the facts.

I'm aware of the facts. I'll explain. Feel free to do a bit of research on this and you'll see (some of these points have even been discussed on this thread).

The 20% figure is deaths per confirmed case. Not deaths per case.

At present only those with symptoms in hospital are being tested (and now health workers). Its widely known that a very decent percentage (most say 80% of sufferers) have had mild symptoms. Virtually none of those have been tested, so they're not confirmed cases. As such, there's multiple times more people had corona compared to those who have tested positive for corona (which is where the 20% figure comes from). This bring the 20% down massively (to 4% perhaps, but just a ball park figure to illustrate the way it'll be calculated properly in the end).

In addition, we still don't know how many people have had it who are asymptomatic. None of these people are likely to have been tested, and are therefore also not included in the figures. Research has shown wide variations in the percentage who get it who show no symptoms. Some studies suggest it may be really high, some low. Iceland's official stats indicate 50%. However many it is, this also brings the proportion down significantly again (if it was 50% it would half the mortality rate again, so ball park, purely for illustrative purposes we're at 2%).

Then you get improvements in treatment as the months go on, so the mortality rate drops further as time goes by. So then we're arriving towards 1% (again purely to illustrate).

That's how it gets worked out. A quick google and you'll find this is how experts are arriving at figures around 1%, some higher, some lower.

Therefore have a look yourself at why the facts now (20%) will bear no resemblance to the final mortality rate. It'll be miles smaller.

[billybassett]

I think you 1% people need to have a look at the official figures not mine or yours.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Out of 970,618 which have either recovered or died - 20% have died 195,114
That's 20% - how anyone thinks that will end up at 1 % in the UK is beyond me.
Have a look for yourselves at the facts.

I'm aware of the facts. I'll explain. Feel free to do a bit of research on this and you'll see (some of these points have even been discussed on this thread).

The 20% figure is deaths per confirmed case. Not deaths per case.

At present only those with symptoms in hospital are being tested (and now health workers). Its widely known that a very decent percentage (most say 80% of sufferers) have had mild symptoms. Virtually none of those have been tested, so they're not confirmed cases. As such, there's multiple times more people had corona compared to those who have tested positive for corona (which is where the 20% figure comes from). This bring the 20% down massively (to 4% perhaps, but just a ball park figure to illustrate the way it'll be calculated properly in the end).

In addition, we still don't know how many people have had it who are asymptomatic. None of these people are likely to have been tested, and are therefore also not included in the figures. Research has shown wide variations in the percentage who get it who show no symptoms. Some studies suggest it may be really high, some low. Iceland's official stats indicate 50%. However many it is, this also brings the proportion down significantly again (if it was 50% it would half the mortality rate again, so ball park, purely for illustrative purposes we're at 2%).

Then you get improvements in treatment as the months go on, so the mortality rate drops further as time goes by. So then we're arriving towards 1% (again purely to illustrate).

That's how it gets worked out. A quick google and you'll find this is how experts are arriving at figures around 1%, some higher, some lower.

Therefore have a look yourself at why the facts now (20%) will bear no resemblance to the final mortality rate. It'll be miles smaller.

Wonder when the penny will drop....i'll keep listening