Generational politics… well done Millennials

[Protheroe]

What's most interesting is how housing dominates voting intention amongst young adults in the UK. In France and Germany where housing is less of an issue - particularly outside the largest cities there is huge support amongst Millennials for the National Front and AfD.

Younger people in Germany were significantly more likely to vote FDP or Die Gruenen, and were less likely to vote AfD. What are you on about?

As for France, young people were most likely to vote for frog Corbyn a.k.a. Jean-Luc Mélenchon who was the plurality for the under 34s.

The point I was making, which you chose to ignore, is that there is huge support for parties of the far right amongst young people in Germany - particularly outside the largest cities (as I noted and you ignored) and particularly in former East Germany. In 2019 AFD (24%) led the under 30 vote in Thuringia ahead of Die Linke (22%) and the Greens (11%). It was also ahead in Saxony and in 2021 AFD led the under 30 vote in Saxony Anhalt.

I call a quarter of the Under 30 vote "huge support" - particularly for a party of the Far Right, and particularly in a country such as Germany. There is (thank goodness) no equivalent party in the UK, at least in terms of electoral appeal.

The vote for Le Pen in the presidential run-off from those aged 18-34 was in excess of 40%. Again, I call that "huge support" - what would you call it if more than 4 in 10 young voters here decided to cast their ballot for the BNP?

https://theconversation.com/how-marine-l...ght-181937

[Borin' Baggie]

What's most interesting is how housing dominates voting intention amongst young adults in the UK. In France and Germany where housing is less of an issue - particularly outside the largest cities there is huge support amongst Millennials for the National Front and AfD.

Younger people in Germany were significantly more likely to vote FDP or Die Gruenen, and were less likely to vote AfD. What are you on about?

As for France, young people were most likely to vote for frog Corbyn a.k.a. Jean-Luc Mélenchon who was the plurality for the under 34s.

The point I was making, which you chose to ignore, is that there is huge support for parties of the far right amongst young people in Germany - particularly outside the largest cities (as I noted and you ignored) and particularly in former East Germany. In 2019 AFD (24%) led the under 30 vote in Thuringia ahead of Die Linke (22%) and the Greens (11%). It was also ahead in Saxony and in 2021 AFD led the under 30 vote in Saxony Anhalt.

I call a quarter of the Under 30 vote "huge support" - particularly for a party of the Far Right, and particularly in a country such as Germany. There is (thank goodness) no equivalent party in the UK, at least in terms of electoral appeal.

The vote for Le Pen in the presidential run-off from those aged 18-34 was in excess of 40%. Again, I call that "huge support" - what would you call it if more than 4 in 10 young voters here decided to cast their ballot for the BNP?

https://theconversation.com/how-marine-l...ght-181937

The point I was making that you declined to mention and are now ignoring is that older people in Germany are significantly more likely to vote AfD than younger people whereas they're more likely to vote FDP and Die Gruenen, that translates consistently across the country. Look at the 2019 state election in Saxony, the hotbed of the German far right; the voter breakdown for under 30s supporting AfD was lower (22%) than the overall numbers voting AfD (27.5%) in 2019 thereby showing that under 30s were less likely to vote AfD than older voters. If that wasn't the case then how could the percentage be lower? So even in the heartlands of the AfD younger people were less likely to vote AfD than older people.

As for France, that can be explained by the huge drop off in young voter turnout from the first election to the second election. Je le sais parce que je maîtrise assez bien le français et que je lis les journaux francophones. Les jeunes en France ont été significativement moins enclins à participer à la seconde élection et je le sais parce que les journaux français n'ont parlé que de cela lors de l'élection française. Pardonnez mon mauvais français. They were generally pissed off at both choices and stayed at home. It's even specifically referenced in the article you linked, 30% abstaining in the first round (in line with the national turnout) rising to 40% in the second round. That's massively down on the 72% turnout overall from the second round, they stayed at home.

Finally, you can't ignore cities because that's where younger people live. Look at Germany's median age distribution from the last census:



The former GDR, a.k.a. where the AfD are popular, is significantly older than the rest of Germany and younger people are overwhelmingly more likely to live in metropolitan population centres. If 90% of younger people live in cities why would you putting emphasis on 10%? It makes no sense as you're deliberately ignoring the data from the overwhelming majority of your sample.

[CarlosCorbewrong]

And that's where politicians for decades have been cosseted to a certain extent as they always had that umbrella government sitting above them so they've not really had to make many bold, key decisions. Would be nice to see just one or two real visionaries to take advantage of a freer rein but at the moment we have fear driving most political direction.

Managerialism took over radicalism in politics back in the 1990s. Most MPs are in politics for a career, rather to actually change anything.

Kwasi and Liz want a word.

[Shabby Russian]

The polling data you cite backs my contention Dekka. Those with a stake in capitalism are more likely to vote Conservative and always have been. Those without a stake are less likely to vote Conservative, particularly if it doesn’t appear they’ll be able to attain a stake.

A home of your own has a far greater influence on ontological security and voting intention than pretty much anything else.

This is true, but there is a sting in the tail for the Conservatives.

At the last election, the %  of home ownership in a constituency was a clear indicator of how likely a red wall seat would fall to the Conservatives.

The sting in the tail, is that there is some evidence that this is less important for the current 18 to 40 age group, where even those who have got on the property ladder are reluctant to back the Conservatives.

[Derek Hardballs]

The polling data you cite backs my contention Dekka. Those with a stake in capitalism are more likely to vote Conservative and always have been. Those without a stake are less likely to vote Conservative, particularly if it doesn’t appear they’ll be able to attain a stake.

A home of your own has a far greater influence on ontological security and voting intention than pretty much anything else.

This is true, but there is a sting in the tail for the Conservatives.

At the last election, the %  of home ownership in a constituency was a clear indicator of how likely a red wall seat would fall to the Conservatives.

The sting in the tail, is that there is some evidence that this is less important for the current 18 to 40 age group, where even those who have got on the property ladder are reluctant to back the Conservatives.

Well that was the whole point of the thread that Proth wants to ignore. Whether a house owner or not, younger voters don’t want to vote Tory for numerous reasons even as they are getting older. Who knew that lurching towards UKIP and Britain First territory would be such a turn off for younger voters.

[Protheroe]

Who knew that lurching towards UKIP and Britain First territory would be such a turn off for younger voters.

I can't imagine how awful it must be to live with someone so shrill and prone to hyperbole.

[Derek Hardballs]

Who knew that lurching towards UKIP and Britain First territory would be such a turn off for younger voters.

I can't imagine how awful it must be to live with someone so shrill and prone to hyperbole.

I can’t imagine how awful it would be to live with a Tory blowhard who is trying to distance himself from his own party.

[Protheroe]

Who knew that lurching towards UKIP and Britain First territory would be such a turn off for younger voters.

I can't imagine how awful it must be to live with someone so shrill and prone to hyperbole.

I can’t imagine how awful it would be to live with a Tory blowhard who is trying to distance himself from his own party.

We're getting on better than ever at home tbh Bud. Albion winning, Lions winning, me not giving a shit about active politics so I can do more DIY. All good here. All positive vibes.

[Borin' Baggie]

Exempting over-50s from income tax being floated to the Times this morning.

I'm sure that will endear younger voters to the Tories. Not only do you get a marginal rate of 50% at £27k for daring to do a masters degree but you also need to prop up the Treasury on your own.

[Fido]

Exempting over-50s from income tax being floated to the Times this morning.

I'm sure that will endear younger voters to the Tories. Not only do you get a marginal rate of 50% at £27k for daring to do a masters degree but you also need to prop up the Treasury on your own.

What? Who did that come from?