Covid Vaccination ID

[TETLEY74]

Everybody seems obsessed with false positives with these tests ,the other side of the coin is how many false negatives are there too, id be more worried about them.

[Sliced]

Everybody seems obsessed with false positives with these tests ,the other side of the coin is how many false negatives are there too, id be more worried about them.

False negatives are generally not an issue as the tests are designed on the basis of having high sensitivities primarily, and high specificities secondarily coupled with the fact that the vast majority of people don't have COVID at any given time. 

For example, currently in the population its estimated around 0.27% had COVID last week. With the sensitivity and specificity of the current NHS testing system which could be around 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity (it's a conservative estimate, the government claims it's higher than this but I really don't think so), if we test a RANDOM sample of 100000 people, nearly 3000 will give false positive results. 

By contrast, an estimated 3 people out of 100000 will give false negative results.

The above also highlights why mass testing just isn't a good idea. The false positive rate isn't as high when you're testing symptomatic patients, which is why all the cries of "BUT WHAT ABOUT THE FALSE POSITIVES" hasn't really been that valid for the past year, however it's about to become more valid if they decide that we're going to be repeatedly testing the whole UK for COVID regardless of symptom status.

[baggy1]

It seems a nonsense really when we have a perfectly good indicator of where the country is at in the hospitalisations figure. In theory there is a two week delay between getting covid and needing hospital treatment if you have a bad dose, which means that we will see an increase in hospitalisations which will be the first alarm bell. The cost and effort of getting the whole population tested twice each week for the sake of giving us a potential two week heads up seem excessively cautious in my opinion.

We have better treatment for covid now plus, hopefully, more immunity following the vaccinations. The money would be better spent monitoring and controlling those coming into the country rather than those already here.

[baggiebuckster]

This is basically Operation Moonshot but 6 months after it was mooted.

[baggiebuckster]

Anyone fancy being a lab rat?

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-56730526?

[baggy1]

UK: "The vulnerable have been vaccinated, why can't we just get back to normal. It's not a risk to the under 50s" 

Covid: "Hold my pint"


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-lati...a-56723439

[backsidebaggie]

Lockdowns ain’t stopping. Boris prepping for more yesterday with his words IMO.

Got called a doom merchant weeks ago for saying this but that’s how I see it going.

[baggy1]

Lockdowns will be used where they are needed and if they are needed. If the numbers in hospital rise above 5k again then I'd expect to see them introduced, that really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. I've said many times, the more get vaccinated, the more we reduce the spread, the less likely we have a lockdown. It really is as simple as get vaccinated or we will likely see lockdowns.

Brazil has shown that this isn't just the over 50s anymore, time for people to start taking collective responsibility here before it s too late.

[Derek Hardballs]

UK: "The vulnerable have been vaccinated, why can't we just get back to normal. It's not a risk to the under 50s" 

Covid: "Hold my pint"


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-lati...a-56723439

That was always bollocks, 100s perhaps 1000's of vulnerable young people with underlying health and disabilities are not vaccinated. Before anyone links to vulnerable over 12's been vaccinated at the discretion of a specialist or GP etc, that still does not help those under twelve or their families. Until the vaccine is approved for that age group the notion of 'going back to normal' isn't an option.

[backsidebaggie]

Lockdowns will be used where they are needed and if they are needed. If the numbers in hospital rise above 5k again then I'd expect to see them introduced, that really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. I've said many times, the more get vaccinated, the more we reduce the spread, the less likely we have a lockdown. It really is as simple as get vaccinated or we will likely see lockdowns.

Brazil has shown that this isn't just the over 50s anymore, time for people to start taking collective responsibility here before it s too late.

Lockdown back in full next winter IMO. I was told that I was ignoring the vaccine programme when myself and Nick said this. Now strangely Boris said the majority of the drop in cases is due to lockdown, not vaccinations. While on the same day Hancock said the vaccine has saved over 10k lives. I don’t get that, it seems a ridiculous contradiction.

We are fucked IMO. I really don’t think people are grasping the severity of the economic situation (or mental health).