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(01-21-2025, 07:22 PM)Everything Zin Wrote: And Brexit hasn’t “cost us billions”. Funny how people quote projections as somehow factual, particularly given the woeful inaccuracy of most of them in the past.
As that Brexit loving FT reported a few weeks ago, it’s actually cost far less than expected, and possibly less than our saved contributions.
The LSE study you're referring to says Brexit has cost us £27bn on imports and £20bn on exports with a 13.2% hit to exports to the EU in terms of value, and that it's absolutely crippled small businesses that don't have the scale to efficiently navigate the stupid red tape.
If that's your idea of good news I don't want to hear your idea of bad news.
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If Brexit has cost us billions, how come UK growth had matched Italy and France post Brexit and was significantly higher than Germany? These "studies" suggest that without Brexit the UK would have grown significantly faster than any other European economy while operating under exactly the same constraints, something that had never happened before and that no economist can explain. I think you'll also find taht the LSE study only looked at the negative aspcts of Brexit and took no account of increased business outside the EU.
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You'll probably need to put some context on that with base figures and time periods. Also don't forget that France, Germany and Italy will also have taken a hit with Brexit, they will have had extra costs put on exports to us, it isn't one way. And also if your argument is that we were forced to go and find new markets, then that could have happened in or out of the EU.
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01-23-2025, 06:01 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-23-2025, 06:11 PM by Borin' Baggie.)
Because Germany, Italy and France have serious economic failings and should not be used as a benchmark for the UK if we actually want a strong economy. A far cry from Denmark or Spain though, would much rather they were the benchmark as their economies are doing quite well.
And I brought up the LSE study because that is what the FT article you referred to was reporting on, and in spite of your assertion it explicitly says the cost is billions of pounds on just goods thanks to red tape.
And those studies are trying to quantify a known effect, introducing massive amounts of NTBs on the largest source of imports and exports obvious to anyone with a brain and that's exactly what Brexit has done - the greatest act of British protectionism since the Tariff Reform League. The fact that you're championing a study that says the cost of Brexit is already billions as an endorsement of Brexit on the basis that larger companies have utilised their economies of scale to mitigate some aspects as well as delays on critical sectors says it all to be honest.
(01-23-2025, 05:51 PM)baggy1 Wrote: You'll probably need to put some context on that with base figures and time periods. Also don't forget that France, Germany and Italy will also have taken a hit with Brexit, they will have had extra costs put on exports to us, it isn't one way. And also if your argument is that we were forced to go and find new markets, then that could have happened in or out of the EU.
The context is that Germany is undergoing an industrial crisis because of stupid energy policy, France is undergoing a crisis because it has a serious structural deficit and sets itself on fire every time somebody tries to fix that and Italy has an average age of about 150 now. They're not healthy economies, but because they aren't people who bought into the stupidity that is Brexit are now selectively using them as though they're the entire EU to pretend that Brexit isn't the stupid mistake it actually is and pretend that the UK isn't in a group of four with those countries with very weak economic foundations that closer cooperation on investment to address some of those fundamental problems would massively help.
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It really is time that the loons realised that it is, has been, and probably always will be a fucking big millstone on our economy.
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(01-23-2025, 07:37 PM)baggy1 Wrote: It really is time that the loons realised that it is, has been, and probably always will be a fucking big millstone on our economy.
That’s never going to happen, their egos are far more precious and delicate to ever admit they were wrong.
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I was ridiculed when I described major EU economies as aging & sclerotic.
Hmm
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(01-23-2025, 10:02 PM)Derek Hardballs Wrote: (01-23-2025, 07:37 PM)baggy1 Wrote: It really is time that the loons realised that it is, has been, and probably always will be a fucking big millstone on our economy.
That’s never going to happen, their egos are far more precious and delicate to ever admit they were wrong.
No amount of evidence will ever convince an idiot that they are wrong.
Think it was Mark Twain said that.
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(01-23-2025, 10:39 PM)Protheroe Wrote: I was ridiculed when I described major EU economies as aging & sclerotic.
Hmm
No you weren't, you were ridiculed for thinking Brexit would magically fix the UK being aging and sclerotic.
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(01-24-2025, 06:53 AM)Borin' Baggie Wrote: (01-23-2025, 10:39 PM)Protheroe Wrote: I was ridiculed when I described major EU economies as aging & sclerotic.
Hmm
No you weren't, you were ridiculed for thinking Brexit would magically fix the UK being aging and sclerotic.
I'm not sure he ever said that it would fix an aging nation. There was the opportunity (and still is) to sort out the second but is somewhat hampered by dreadful government over the last however many years that ties our hands.
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