UK Covid death toll

[JOK]

The government imo have either misjudged the public mood.

“The government imo have either misjudged the public mood.” Or what?
 
Aren’t you always telling us (quite correctly) that government shouldn’t legislate from public opinion? Surely the government should make judgement calls based on all criteria involved.
Could you tell us where that poll is published and does it give the sample size and age ranges of respondents? All relevant to the outcome.
 
I shall still wear a mask when shopping and will be happy to comply if the sites I volunteer at ask me to continue doing so. 

As your other, perceived, nemesis writes “people can make their own mind up”. This thing is not going to be eradicated any time soon, so we have to, eventually, play the percentages.

[Ossian]

 I shall still wear a mask when shopping and will be happy to comply if the sites I volunteer at ask me to continue doing so. 

As your other, perceived, nemesis writes “people can make their own mind up”. This thing is not going to be eradicated any time soon, so we have to, eventually, play the percentages.

I don't anticipate changing my behaviour when it comes to mask-wearing and distancing just yet. Also I haven't used public transport for nigh on 18 months and that's not likely to change in the foreseeable future, much as I miss using the train into Birmingham, Worcester and Malvern.

With regards to the highlighted part, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Covid-19 outlives us as a species (assuming a pathogen counts as a species). Obviously if it does I won't be around to confirm that suspicion.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

The relaxation of all rules does seem counter intuitive

[Derek Hardballs]

So his two top scientific aids and experts say they shall be wearing their masks, socially distancing, and that we should be doing everything we can to suppress the surge in the virus and yet Johnson has clearly thrown the most vulnerable under a bus to appease the rabid nut jobs in his own party. This is a purely ideological decision not an economic one because things could still be in place to allow events to happen safely etc. This is a truly appalling PM and government. No matter how many replies to this post is going to alter my position so carry on.

[JOK]

So his two top scientific aids and experts say they shall be wearing their masks and still socially distancing and yet Johnson has clearly thrown the most vulnerable under a bus to appease the rabid nut jobs in his own party. This is a purely ideological decision not an economic one because things could still be in place to allow events to happen safely etc. This is a truly appalling PM and government. No matter how many replies to this post is going to alter my position so carry on.

You don't say !
 
You say "things could be in place to allow events to happen safely etc"  Give us your ideas. 
How do you get Stadia, clubs, pubs, theatres etc. to use their full capacity 'safely' AND be economically  viable? 
How would you fill up a venue in a timely fashion that the public will accept? 
How would you suggest guided tours at indoor heritage sites are run at the required capacity? 
How would you, 'safely', organize a music festival? (they never strike me as being overly hygienic at the best of times)  
How do you suggest care homes allow unlimited access again for all loved ones?
How would you manage a traditional wedding reception? 
Are you in favour of Covid passports? 
How is all this going to be policed ?
 
You say it is not an economical decision but ideological. What is the ideology that prompted the decision? Civil liberty?  If that is so, it runs counter to everything you have said Tories stand for. Explain.
 
As to “throwing the most vulnerable under the bus”;
There were many people, young and mature, before the pandemic who had to take great percussions and even self-isolate because of their conditions, we didn’t take them into consideration, before this time, when going about our daily lives. The only difference now is Covid puts a few more at risk, relatively speaking. So, in effect it is just an argument of degrees.  Sad, but true.
Given that this is going to be with us for some time, which I think most people accept, how long do you want us to have restrictions going on for?

[Derek Hardballs]

So his two top scientific aids and experts say they shall be wearing their masks and still socially distancing and yet Johnson has clearly thrown the most vulnerable under a bus to appease the rabid nut jobs in his own party. This is a purely ideological decision not an economic one because things could still be in place to allow events to happen safely etc. This is a truly appalling PM and government. No matter how many replies to this post is going to alter my position so carry on.

You don't say !
 
You say "things could be in place to allow events to happen safely etc"  Give us your ideas. 
How do you get Stadia, clubs, pubs, theatres etc. to use their full capacity 'safely' AND be economically  viable? 
How would you fill up a venue in a timely fashion that the public will accept? 
How would you suggest guided tours at indoor heritage sites are run at the required capacity? 
How would you, 'safely', organize a music festival? (they never strike me as being overly hygienic at the best of times)  
How do you suggest care homes allow unlimited access again for all loved ones?
How would you manage a traditional wedding reception? 
Are you in favour of Covid passports? 
How is all this going to be policed ?
 
You say it is not an economical decision but ideological. What is the ideology that prompted the decision? Civil liberty?  If that is so, it runs counter to everything you have said Tories stand for. Explain.
 
As to “throwing the most vulnerable under the bus”;
There were many people, young and mature, before the pandemic who had to take great percussions and even self-isolate because of their conditions, we didn’t take them into consideration, before this time, when going about our daily lives. The only difference now is Covid puts a few more at risk, relatively speaking. So, in effect it is just an argument of degrees.  Sad, but true.
Given that this is going to be with us for some time, which I think most people accept, how long do you want us to have restrictions going on for?

Gov says something is a good idea, you defend it. This could have been a gradual relaxing of restrictions, instead the everything must go decision is a needless risk given millions still need their first or second jab and at a time where rates of infection are rising at a very significant rate. When did following the science not dates become obsolete? At least Richard Madeley (Alan Partridge), Right Said Fred, the twonk from Lewis think it’s a good idea…

[baggy1]

The relaxation of all rules does seem counter intuitive

This is where I am. I'm comfortable with giving people the choice to do certain things, if people want to go to the pub where there is unrestricted standing at the bar and mingling then that is ok, that comes with an obvious risk that they will take any virus away with them and continue the spread but that seems to be the way some people want it. I suspect the businesses will find that they won't get back to capacity because people will be uncertain and simply not go out, that is their choice. Having said that I see no logic in not mandating masks on public transport and in shops, there doesn't appear to be any downside to continuing to do that.

The other big question I have is for weeks Johnson has been proclaiming that this is irreversible, but logic tells me that it probably will need to have some form of reversing at some point in the next few months. When that point arrives, because of what has been said, some people will be demanding their civil rights and stating that they were told it is irreversible etc. and making it difficult to control any future issues.

The whole press conference last night was bizarre, we had Johnson stating that all restrictions are being removed and then Valance and Whitty telling us numbers are increasing in all metrics. Johnson's view is 'if not now. when?' but surely the answer to that is 'not when the numbers are going up'. Hospitalisations are going up at 20% each week at the moment, removing all restrictions logically says that there will be more spread and therefore more hospitalisations. If that continues at the current rate we will have 10k in hospital around mid-september, that will put strain on other services and put us back to cancellations of treatments causing more long term problems. If the removal of restrictions increases spread then we will get there sooner than September.

In Johnson we have a leader of extremes, he either gambles everything or nothing. In this case he is gambling everything on the chance that the virus spread will slow down as we reach herd immunity, lets hope he knows something that we don't and that it will be different this time, his experts didn't appear to have his confidence last night. We appear to be making the exact same mistake for the 2nd year running, opening up to get businesses back on their feet. We know where that went, those same businesses had more long term damage because of the opening up.

For what it's worth my view is continue with the current restrictions until we get over 90% of the population double vaccinated, then keep some minor impositions in place such as masks in public spaces with the exception of hospitality venues.

[Ossian]

B1, my suspicion with Johnson is that he's looked at what happened to the numbers during last year's school holidays (summer) and thought that if we can just muddle through until then the natural 'firebreak' will give the impression of justifying his decision. The problem he will then have created for himself is that within a couple of weeks of schools returning in September infection rates were climbing exponentially - quickly leading to a second surge more lethal than the first. An error he compounded by simply refusing to recognise that schools are, at any time, hotbeds of infection and spread (for all manner of sicknesses - not just Covid).

Vaccination levels should mitigate against things becoming that serious again this year, but to me it still smacks more of winging it than coherent strategy.

[baggy1]

I think you're right Oss, the problem he will have is that this time last year numbers were falling and didn't start rising again until September, because of the decision to keep the travel corridor open with India therefore allowing the virus back in then the numbers are already rising and are exactly the same number as they were on 7th July 2020 but going in the opposite direction.

That's quite an incredible coincidence btw - last years numbers in hospital in England on the 8th July were 1,888. Yesterdays number was exactly the same, the only difference was that number was coming down last year it is already going up this year.

[Ted Maul]

It was always going to be a risk reopening, but with 2/3 fully vaccinated and 9/10 with one jab then he obviously feels it's a risk worth taking. Whitty and Valance weren't quite as bullish but there seems to be a general consensus that the NHS will be able to cope with whatever is coming it's way. The longer we progress through the summer, the more vaccines we will have in arms, if people with one jab are sensible it should only be another month or so until a good proportion of the over-25s have had both jabs. Whilst it is a risk, I think the hospitalisation data despite the increase is positive as too is the lack of movement on deaths. Much of the modelling now suggests there is little further benefit to be obtained by delaying further into the autumn and winter months, so I can understand why the decision has been made. Ultimately, I think for the majority of us life wont change too much for us in the near future, it just means if I forget my mask I can still go in the shop instead of having to trek home to fetch it!