UK Covid death toll

[foreveralbion]

Seems a strange time to protest when we are only weeks away from complete normality within the UK.

I think we could have opened up a bit earlier but we are where we are and it looks like the vaccines have worked

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Seems a strange time to protest when we are only weeks away from complete normality within the UK.

I think we could have opened up a bit earlier but we are where we are and it looks like the vaccines have worked

I'm in the same space.

This lot yesterday are as bad as the BLM lot last year

[Kit Kat Chunky]

ONS stats today say antibodies at 68.3% of population at 11th April. This has to be above 70% today.

Is that herd immunity now?

[keef]

ONS stats today say antibodies at 68.3% of population at 11th April. This has to be above 70% today.

Is that herd immunity now?
[/qu

ONS stats today say antibodies at 68.3% of population at 11th April. This has to be above 70% today.

Is that herd immunity now?

according to a bbc horizon documentary  80 % minimum of the population for herd immunity

[Kit Kat Chunky]

ONS stats today say antibodies at 68.3% of population at 11th April. This has to be above 70% today.

Is that herd immunity now?
[/qu

ONS stats today say antibodies at 68.3% of population at 11th April. This has to be above 70% today.

Is that herd immunity now?

according to a bbc horizon documentary  80 % minimum of the population for herd immunity

my crude maths suggests that with the lag for the vax to take effect (3 weeks) and 25% of the population already having A/Bs from infection (thus meaning 25% of those vaxed already have A/Bs) then we are probably at 75% once everyone vaxed has developed A/Bs. So probably around another 6 weeks before we reach that 80% level. That just about ties in with the earliest date of June to release all restrictions.

[baggy1]

Far too early to say KKC as there are too many variables with this virus. We don't know how long the antibodies last for those that have had either covid or the jab at this point and the 25% of the population figure is another unknown as there could have been many more that didn't show symptoms. The telling point will be this winter when we will get a better picture if the hospitalisations start to rise significantly again.

In the meantime all is looking good and when I get today's figures it should show that we are still on that nice '20% reduction in hospitalisations a week' rate meaning that the relaxations are not causing a slow down in the recovery. Looking at how the rest of the world is coping, India obviously but Turkey and Germany in lockdown, France under heavy restrictions and the UK ploughing ahead with the vaccination program. If we ease up now by either speeding up the relaxations of the lockdown and / or start to hit resistance / reluctance to take the jab by the under 50s then it could put a spanner in the works.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Far too early to say KKC as there are too many variables with this virus. We don't know how long the antibodies last for those that have had either covid or the jab at this point and the 25% of the population figure is another unknown as there could have been many more that didn't show symptoms. The telling point will be this winter when we will get a better picture if the hospitalisations start to rise significantly again.

In the meantime all is looking good and when I get today's figures it should show that we are still on that nice '20% reduction in hospitalisations a week' rate meaning that the relaxations are not causing a slow down in the recovery. Looking at how the rest of the world is coping, India obviously but Turkey and Germany in lockdown, France under heavy restrictions and the UK ploughing ahead with the vaccination program. If we ease up now by either speeding up the relaxations of the lockdown and / or start to hit resistance / reluctance to take the jab by the under 50s then it could put a spanner in the works.

The under 50's is the problem. The number of over 50's taking the jab is fantastic. Hopefully this will continue through the age groups.

JVT is sounding positive. He has been the best communicator through this situation.

[baggy1]

Far too early to say KKC as there are too many variables with this virus. We don't know how long the antibodies last for those that have had either covid or the jab at this point and the 25% of the population figure is another unknown as there could have been many more that didn't show symptoms. The telling point will be this winter when we will get a better picture if the hospitalisations start to rise significantly again.

In the meantime all is looking good and when I get today's figures it should show that we are still on that nice '20% reduction in hospitalisations a week' rate meaning that the relaxations are not causing a slow down in the recovery. Looking at how the rest of the world is coping, India obviously but Turkey and Germany in lockdown, France under heavy restrictions and the UK ploughing ahead with the vaccination program. If we ease up now by either speeding up the relaxations of the lockdown and / or start to hit resistance / reluctance to take the jab by the under 50s then it could put a spanner in the works.

The under 50's is the problem. The number of over 50's taking the jab is fantastic. Hopefully this will continue through the age groups.

JVT is sounding positive. He has been the best communicator through this situation.

Definitely, I've been impressed with his approach. There may be a horrible irony in the disaster that is taking place in India which may cause the take up in the Asian population to be higher. From what BB and others were saying there was a resistance to taking the jab for many reasons in that community, I wonder if the current tragedy will change their views on that.

[baggy1]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)

Another week, another 20% fall in the numbers in hospital. This is despite the relaxations on April 12th for shops, gyms, barbers and outdoor dining and eating all being brought into the mix, they have not impacted in the continued reduction of those in hospital - All good news. The next relaxation on 17th May will be interesting and hopefully continue on the same path.

The biggest difference this year compared to last Autumn is the vaccination programme which continues at a good speed and is now open for anyone over 42 (it did make me wonder why they chose 42 and not 45 or 40 but finding out that Matt Hancock is 42 got rid of that question as why wouldn't he fix it so that he was looked after   ). Currently 65% of the adult population have had the 1st jab and nearly 27% have had both - these are impressive numbers as they have managed to keep the volume up. 

It will be interesting to see what the uptake is going forward especially with the news from around the globe of outbreaks and lockdowns. Hopefully it will continue to be high.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)

Another week, another 20% fall in the numbers in hospital. This is despite the relaxations on April 12th for shops, gyms, barbers and outdoor dining and eating all being brought into the mix, they have not impacted in the continued reduction of those in hospital - All good news. The next relaxation on 17th May will be interesting and hopefully continue on the same path.

The biggest difference this year compared to last Autumn is the vaccination programme which continues at a good speed and is now open for anyone over 42 (it did make me wonder why they chose 42 and not 45 or 40 but finding out that Matt Hancock is 42 got rid of that question as why wouldn't he fix it so that he was looked after   ). Currently 65% of the adult population have had the 1st jab and nearly 27% have had both - these are impressive numbers as they have managed to keep the volume up. 

It will be interesting to see what the uptake is going forward especially with the news from around the globe of outbreaks and lockdowns. Hopefully it will continue to be high.

You make a good point on the Asian community. Hopefully they will buy in. We are still running at 850K 1st jabs a week, and hopefully that will increase when we are over the hump of second jabs. Given the large number of Pfizer doses announced yesterday, I think they believe that a boost of Pfizer for everyone should keep this at bay (at least that's what I'm hoping).