UK Covid death toll

[Ossian]

Why does a huge part of me think that they are shouting this NEW variant from the rooftops to assure Londoners  that tier 3 is necessary? The virus will always mutate and has almost certainly been doing so all along.

The cynic in me is inclined to think that Boris regrets his 5-day 'shackles off' promise and now wishes he'd kept his trap shut. It's a recurring problem for him, this need to promise jam tomorrow and risk the chances (high) and consequences (negligible, apparently) of it not materialising.

This Covid variant isn't surprising, nor is it particularly new; mutations were foreseen from the outset. It might be a handy get out clause though, for a man-child conflicted by the need to be popular and the reality of being completely out of his depth.

[baggy1]

Week ended 4th Dec (which takes up up to the end of lockdown) figures are out and show another 1608 excess deaths against the 5YA, and 1,487 more than 2019 with the majority of those being over 65 (1,211) plus 254 from the 45-65 group.

Looking at the stats from both the 1st and 2nd wave there is a pattern with hospitalisations. With the tier system in place the number increases at 1.4 times each week, with the lockdown it increases 1.2 times a week at first until peak and then reduces at 0.8 times a week. Using this the govt can plot and manage the outbreaks. Unfortunately by leaving it late and not going for long enough for this 2nd lockdown (we locked down with about 11k in hospital and reopened at about 13k) we have done the worst of both worlds - we've not reduced the number or contained it so that it is manageable and managed to fuck businesses at the same time.

I've heard the Captain hindsight line being used and it does piss me off, I started putting the hospital figures on this thread on the 23rd Sept because I could see a problem and I'm just looking at data, Sage originally called for a lockdown on the 21st Sept when the figures in hospital were 1300. Using the 1.2 and 0.8 calculations from above we could have had 6 weeks lockdown to the start of November and then opened up into tier 2 until the start of January - taking the 1.4 times growth figure that would have put us a 10.5k by Jan 2nd. We have another lockdown until mid Feb and we then have the number below 8k and we have the vaccine being rolled out.

So basically the govt has both fucked jobs and fucked lives with their dithering, and in the meantime they've got away with it to a degree because we're all arguing amongst ourselves about which is worse, death or jobs, or vaccine vs antivax, or is covid real or is it just a control mechanism, or mask or no mask. Really pissed off.

[Derek Hardballs]

Week ended 4th Dec (which takes up up to the end of lockdown) figures are out and show another 1608 excess deaths against the 5YA, and 1,487 more than 2019 with the majority of those being over 65 (1,211) plus 254 from the 45-65 group.

Looking at the stats from both the 1st and 2nd wave there is a pattern with hospitalisations. With the tier system in place the number increases at 1.4 times each week, with the lockdown it increases 1.2 times a week at first until peak and then reduces at 0.8 times a week. Using this the govt can plot and manage the outbreaks. Unfortunately by leaving it late and not going for long enough for this 2nd lockdown (we locked down with about 11k in hospital and reopened at about 13k) we have done the worst of both worlds - we've not reduced the number or contained it so that it is manageable and managed to fuck businesses at the same time.

I've heard the Captain hindsight line being used and it does piss me off, I started putting the hospital figures on this thread on the 23rd Sept because I could see a problem and I'm just looking at data, Sage originally called for a lockdown on the 21st Sept when the figures in hospital were 1300. Using the 1.2 and 0.8 calculations from above we could have had 6 weeks lockdown to the start of November and then opened up into tier 2 until the start of January - taking the 1.4 times growth figure that would have put us a 10.5k by Jan 2nd. We have another lockdown until mid Feb and we then have the number below 8k and we have the vaccine being rolled out.

So basically the govt has both fucked jobs and fucked lives with their dithering, and in the meantime they've got away with it to a degree because we're all arguing amongst ourselves about which is worse, death or jobs, or vaccine vs antivax, or is covid real or is it just a control mechanism, or mask or no mask. Really pissed off.

Apparently (WHO figures) we are still 6th worst in terms of confirmed cases currently and we are an island! I remember the posters sneering at comparing us to Italy and Spain in terms of how we are handling the situation and now we are ahead of them, they are conspicuous by their absence. English Exceptionalism is a powerful thing it seems. It's able to withstand reason and fact without batting an eyelid. 

The last 4.5yrs has made me realise how gullible and easily manipulated some of our population are not to mention pathologically selfish. People would rather look to conspiracy theorists on Twitter and Facebook, or seek out marginalised science and medical professionals to back up their BELIEF as it's just easier to accept. When the dust settles on this and other matters linked to this administration it won't look favourably on them or some in society. By then of course it won't matter to them as they will be long gone.

[JOK]

The last 4.5yrs has made me realise how gullible and easily manipulated some of our population are not to mention pathologically selfish. People would rather look to conspiracy theorists on Twitter and Facebook, or seek out marginalised science and medical professionals to back up their BELIEF as it's just easier to accept. When the dust settles on this and other matters linked to this administration it won't look favourably on them or some in society. By then of course it won't matter to them as they will be long gone.

More ageist bile from you.

[Protheroe]

And your 40% revenue down is meaningless as your costs will have also reduced - In theory you get your profits which have been subsidised, surely.

My business revenue is down 40%, my costs are down by 10%. My business receives no support whatsoever from the government.

None at all?

No, nothing.

[Protheroe]

Does anyone else find the faux hand wringing of right wingers suddenly caring about the poorest and most vulnerable hugely hypocritical? They cut public health by 40%, cut support for the disabled, placed millions on Universal Credit plunging many into further debt, allowed the gap between rich and poor to grow, cut youth services, slashed budgets to local government who in turn cut budgets in libraries, front line services, support for local charities etc but now we are to believe they care!

I don’t recall any concern during the austerity years, in fact some seemed to enjoy slashing budgets as some sort of righteous campaign against the undeserving poor. I say bah him bug to their ‘concern’.

Before Covid

Straight from the warm moist comfort of The Guardian letters page.

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)

The figures for those in hospital have changed over the last week to now include Acute Trusts, Mental Health Trusts and Independent Sector Hospitals which has increased the numbers in hospital which I have updated each week above to make sure we don't get a big jump all of a sudden. The increase pw figures haven't changed very much as a %.

The number of people in hospital in England with covid as of today is now 15.5k. The peak in April was 18,974 using the new stats and the increase for the week to the 16th has been 15% increase. With the same rate of increase seen last week and in the weeks just before the lockdown we will reach the peak of April in 8 days time (Christmas Eve).

I leave it up to you to draw your own conclusions. Stay safe folks.

[Protheroe]

My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

[Derek Hardballs]

My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

Yeah of course it’s no worse than the flu! Ffs

[Brentbaggie]

I think it's reasonable to ask the question. And no, I don't believe it's just like the flu. It would be interesting to see what deaths are ascribed to flu and whether it has been appearing on death certificates since the flu season began.