UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Nov - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)
11th Nov - 11,990 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 13,626 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 13,337 (0.98 x pw) 

Over the past few weeks I've been showing how the virus has grown by the numbers of people in hospital in England and also how it has flattened over the last couple of weeks. The figures for the last week show a slight reduction again with the figure now at 12,333 (0.92 x pw),

The 2nd lockdown started on the 5th November and at that point was flattening slightly and that figure took 3 weeks to stop increasing. If the pattern is followed that infections take a couple of weeks to start reflecting in hospital admissions that means that the number should fail a bit before the relaxing of measures starts to rise the number again. My concern is that after a couple of weeks we will be only down to 10k approx and if we start to see an increase on the same level as before lockdown that hospitalisation figure could begin to rise to the peak levels very quickly.

In theory it should be subdued by us staying in tiers but that in itself is in question and may be relaxed further.

This way of measuring shows that from the point of lockdown (5th Nov - 10,344) to the peak (23rd Nov - 13,767) there was an increase of a third in those in hospital. If we'd have locked down earlier this would have been more manageable, if it was when sage said in September the numbers could have been kept very low, if it had been in October when Starmer said then that number could have been kept below 7.5k, but it looks like we are going to struggle to keep that figure below 10k for winter now which is concerning IMO. 

Fingers crossed on this vaccine because it really is going to be needed (and for it to work effectively). Keep safe folks.

[richbaggie]

Hopefully, people not being at work for a week or so, schools and unis not being open will help keep transmission down enough to counterweight those 5 days.

[baggiebuckster]

Just read the official document for health professionals about the vaccine.

Bit worrying that it states:

4.5 Interaction with other medicinal products and other forms of interaction
No interaction studies have been performed.

Fertility
It is unknown whether COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT162b2 has an impact on fertility.

Wont most vulnerable people be on other medications?

[keef]

you take anadin and there are side effects
you can take iberfurin tablets and they will have side effects nothing is 100%

[baggy1]

And herein lies the problem, the authorities have had to rush through a vaccine, alternatively we go into extended lockdowns until full testing (and if you are talking about fertility that will take a time to measure) is completed. The quickest vaccine developed previously was for mumps and that took 4 years.

However, and this is the key part, they are being tested and the speed that everything is getting completed is driven by the need for these. I have no doubt that corners are being cut, or at least they are filling in the blanks at a later date where corners have been cut, but, and this is a big but, no vaccine developer will want to be found out to be the one that caused death, illness or long lasting problems because that will put them out of business.

One point though - the target audience won't be too worried about fertility.

There is still and awful lot to learn, will transmission still occur in the vaccinated, will it actually work, but unfortunately due to the circumstances we really are learning on the job here.

[foreveralbion]

the interaction one will be a major concern id guess.

most vunerable (me included) will mostly already be on some drugs.

i personally would rather stay unvaccinated rather than the drugs im on now be effected by the vaccine.

[baggiebuckster]

you take anadin and there are side effects
you can take  iberfurin tablets and they will have side effects nothing is 100%

I would class fertility as a bit more than a side effect

[baggy1]

you take anadin and there are side effects
you can take  iberfurin tablets and they will have side effects nothing is 100%

I would class fertility as a bit more than a side effect

The drug isn't absolutely brand new, it is an existing SARS/MERS type drug that has been adapted I believe, and as there are no issues with fertility on those what leads you to believe there are any with this one?

[baggiebuckster]

you take anadin and there are side effects
you can take  iberfurin tablets and they will have side effects nothing is 100%

I would class fertility as a bit more than a side effect

The drug isn't absolutely brand new, it is an existing SARS/MERS type drug that has been adapted I believe, and as there are no issues with fertility on those what leads you to believe there are any with this one?

I didn't say I believe there are issues. I said that the official gov paperwork for health officials for the Pfizer jab states they don't know. And this is a new type of jab that has never been used on humans before so there are differences to SARS//MERS. It is the Oxford jab that is an adapted version not Pfizer.

[baggy1]

Strictly speaking it has been used on humans in the trials but I guess you mean widespread use. And for the fertility point I'll repeat what I said earlier, the target group won't be too worries about fertility - I'm basically the youngest group on the initial list and it's a bit late to affect my fertility if the truth be known, imagine having to get up for night feeds in your 50s, god forbid.

By the time that it filters down to the younger groups they will have more data.

Here are some of the side effects known from the testing:
Very Common (more than or equal to 1 in 10 people) - Headache, Arthralgia (joint pain), Myalgia (muscle pain), Injection site pain, fatigue, chills, pyrexia (raised temperature),
Common (more than 1 in 100 but less than 1 in 10) - Redness at injection site, injection site swelling, Nausea
Uncommon (more than 1 in 1000 but less than 1 in 100) - Lymphadenopthy (disease affecting the lymph nodes)