UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

The only unsubstantiated bollox comes from you and your theories that you cut and paste from twitter, the second you started with the Wakey Wakey line was when you were lost, you can't stand the fact that you post something - excess deaths 'adjusted for population growth', referrals to NHS mental health services, excess deaths in the wrong area, etc etc etc' and they all turn out to be bollox. And when asked about each one of those you simply ignore it or back it up with vague answers.

I'll ask you a simple question again - where did you get the data from for the referrals to NHS Mental Health services? I can't find anything so a link would be great.

And the bit above about South Korea not having a serious outbreak: turns out that's bollox as well.

I tried time and again to keep my stats simple and tried to be polite with you but you simply ignore it when you get proven wrong and brush onto the next bollox from twitter. So fuck it, I'll give as good as what I get. You talk about pulpits and know fuck all, if you read my posts you would see that all I do is put together basic facts that can be explained with common sense and not tin hat theories from blokes in garages.

And your constant misunderstanding of excess deaths is simply thick - it is simply a stat that shows how many people died, it can't be used to say what of and was never meant to be.

[billybassett]

Well that last sentence is ridiculous in it's own right.

Thick. You're the one peddling the line that lockdowns are in everyone's interest and keep posting deaths as a mantra to it. If you honestly believe that this lockdown has worked and that more people have benefited from it than not then you're as thick as pigshit and frankly I wouldn't give you the steam off my piss.

So do one - no doubt you'll disappear off into the sunset when the 2.7m jobless, the cancelled apptmts and other deaths start stacking up in 12-18mths. You'll be happy because you all told us so. Fook me Wakey Wakey indeed

[baggy1]

You haven't got a clue - I've never said that lockdowns are in everyones interest but add that to your list of lies, made up facts and conspiracy theories. The virus doesn't respect what jobs people have got, the constant bullshit from idiots like you mean that the other fucking idiots in charge of this country were afraid to call a fire break when it was needed.

This lockdown (late as it was) has stopped the increase in hospitalisations, unfortunately it is still too high to say go back to normal because, and I know this is too much logic for you, it will most likely start to increase again from a higher level if we just opened up this time. The fact that 3 weeks after the lockdown hospitalisations have stopped increasing should tell you something, but it won't because you refuse to see. The fact that the week ended 13th November had 2k excess deaths (at a time where hospitalisations were rising) must only be a coincidence as well.

Why don't you dig out some randomers theory about Sweden or South Korea instead of looking at pure hard facts. Or better than that why don't you cut and paste the 20 questions that will mean you don't have to provide any solution.

And on that note, what is your solution? You've been all wind so far about what to do with no actual solution whilst whinging like a babby.

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Nov - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)
11th Nov - 11,990 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 13,626 (1.14 x pw)

The rate of increase seems to be gradually slowing and now is below 1.15 pw, continuing the trend will see us reach the following figures

25th November - 15,533 (however this will be three weeks after lockdown and following the pattern in April which peaked at 17,172 three weeks after lockdown)

All of this relates just to England as ever. If we do start to see a drop after next week we will be able to show a pattern of these waves with any lockdown taking three weeks to impact which will allow us to plan them better.

The rate of growth this time has been much shallower and although we are approaching the same levels of hospitalised I'm not seeing the same levels of problems as last time. Added to all of that we have some vaccines close to helping the situation there are some real positives to be taken from the potential future state..

I know this is pretty shit and grinding everyone down but keeping disciplined for a while longer will hep improve the situation.

Some good news coming out of this painful lockdown is that the rate of increase has stopped (slightly negative now) and the number of hospitalisations in England on the 25th is 13,337. Hopefully by next weeks figures we should start to see that figure dropping.

Whether you believe a lockdown works or not it is hard to argue with the stats that they were rising until the lockdown started and it has slowed down and plateaued now. That could just be a coincidence of course but it does mirror the timings of the lockdown in the 1st wave. 

It should also be pointed out that the rate actually started to reduce before the lockdown was introduced and that could be read that the local tiered lockdowns were the reason for that. Whichever way it appears that the peak has been reached and hopefully will start to reduce again.

[PeakBaggie]

https://www.bitchute.com/video/LBeo24BvA5PU/

Is this Billy in disguise? Worth a listen if you have time. It very much supports much of what Billy says on here and its from the mouth of someone with a very strong respiratory pharmacol background.

I genuinely don't know who I believe any more. Vallance and Van Tam or Yeadon and Gupta. All vastly experienced in their fields but seem to be poles apart.

I find myself distrusting Vallance more and more given they are working so closely with the most untrustworthy and corrupt govt in my lifetime.

Compelling evidence on the face of it, but I still maintain that if you torture the stats enough
you can produce data or graphs that supports any view either side of the debate.

I prefer to put what faith I have in those on the front line in this battle against the virus. They
tell me that they have never faced anything like what they have been fighting for the past 9
months in ICU. Winters have come and gone, but they have witnessed illness and deaths like
no other year since they can remember. In point of fact, the second wave that so many deny is
happening, has claimed more victims that the first wave back in April/May. One said to me that
the politicians and SAGE are not in charge anymore than those that oppose, the virus is in
control again and only the advances in treatment and much more effective PPE is preventing
the situation becoming out of control.

As counterintuitive as that might sound because we clearly have less deaths this time, you can see that when you look at the attachment which is for people in hospital. Even though the peak isn't as high, the rising increase in numbers is spread over a longer period than earlier in the year. This means that people are taking up hospital beds for longer (for a good reason btw - they aren't dying) and if the decrease of the wave is the same as before then it will mean that this has taken more resource (staff time and beds) than the 1st wave although the 1st wave was more deadly.

In simple terms it took 24 days to get from 1,500 in hospital to the peak of 17k, whereas this time it has taken 60 days to reach this peak from 1,500 to 13.5k. It will have taken a lot more resource and stamina from NHS staff this time.

Baggy1 - I was not referring to national stats but to the facts from the local trust, where they have more beds occupied
than in the first wave and also have more deaths this second wave sadly. I will balance that by adding that so far in this
wave they have not lost any staff to the virus, they lost 3 earlier in the year but with the correct PPE that at least seems
to have been corrected.
Thankfully both infection control and advanced theraputics seems to be helping many of those in ICU and the red wards
despite the increase in deaths The toll on staff numbers is seriously concerning. Last night for example one nurse was looking 
after multiple ICU beds and that is a dangerous practice but reflects the pressure on the team. 
Cue the seasonal flu bollocks to be mentioned by someone...

[baggy1]

It's important to keep hearing the news from the frontline PB so cheers for that, I was trying to badly explain that the toll on the staff this time because of the longevity of the upward trend this time. What gets missed in all of the stats is exactly what you point out - there are some regions really getting hit badly and this is very real.

[baggiebuckster]

Trust the scientists is the mantra isn't it. Good job they gave a half dose by mistake and not double eh?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020...sing-error

Many scientific breakthroughs are as a result of ‘mistakes’. I’d rather trust them than some very loud blowhards on SM. The vaccine makers have just said it wasn’t a mistake they did tests with different dosages (there’s a better word but I can’t remember it. Along the lines of regiment).

So it possibly emerges this 90% effective figure is based on 2700 people of which none were over 55. As a result more testing will be done yet it won't hold up regulatory approval. Is this the jab they were planning on rolling out to the vulnerable in December? 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-astr...y-12143150

[strawman]

Trust the scientists is the mantra isn't it. Good job they gave a half dose by mistake and not double eh?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020...sing-error

Many scientific breakthroughs are as a result of ‘mistakes’. I’d rather trust them than some very loud blowhards on SM. The vaccine makers have just said it wasn’t a mistake they did tests with different dosages (there’s a better word but I can’t remember it. Along the lines of regiment).

So it possibly emerges this 90% effective figure is based on 2700 people of which none were over 55. As a result more testing will be done yet it won't hold up regulatory approval. Is this the jab they were planning on rolling out to the vulnerable in December? 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-astr...y-12143150

Think it was the Pfizer one that is expected to be the first to be approved

Which COVID-19 vaccines are lined up for roll-out on the NHS? | GPonline

[baggy1]

Week 47 data is now out (to the 20th November) and again unfortunately there are over 2k more deaths than the 5YA. 12,535 people died in that week compared with the 5YA of 10,380 and 2019 figures of 10,882. If ever there was any confusion that this virus causes a considerably higher number of deaths than would normally occur then the past 6 weeks should convince everyone otherwise. In that time we have had over 8,000 more deaths than is normal at this time of year, when this started to occur back in April and May the comments included that these people were just dying early and it would even out, it hasn't and it doesn't look like it will whilst we have this with us.

In total, compared with 2019, we have 67.6k more deaths and when you look at the over 65s that accounts for 60k of that number. To put that into context, in 2019 there 445k deaths in the over 65 age group in total. With 5 weeks to go in the year we have added over 13% to that figure, and that is with restrictions in place don't forget.

The good news is that the numbers of people in hospital has started to fall slightly but it must be remembered that we are entering into the peak season for respiratory hospitalisations and we are already at a high level of occupancy of ICU beds. Also it must be remembered that if the decrease in hospital numbers follows the same path as in the summer it takes months to get down to the very low numbers we saw at the end of August.

All of these figures are just for England and Wales.

[Ossian]

It seems to have taken almost the full duration of this most recent partial lockdown to impact significantly on the infection and mortality rates.