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The problem as I see it Oss is that we have stopped the number of hospitalisations increasing but we haven't reduced them. The decision to implement the 'firebreak' period should have been done when the numbers were low (and starting to rip) in order to keep them low. And until we get a vaccine we would need to keep doing that in short sharp shocks. When we entered lockdown on the 5th Nov there were 10,344 in hospital in England, as of the 29th there were 12,837, if we'd have locked down from a lower number at an earlier date we would now be at a lower number with room to take in more. We don't have that luxury now and are therefore having to enter into the tiers at such a high level that it is effectively an extension of the lockdown.
Labour called for the lockdown on 13th October when the hospitalised number was 3,905 and Sage called for it on the 21st September when the number was 1,381. More dithering by this bunch of morons has cost us in many ways.
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(12-01-2020, 12:03 PM)Ossian Wrote: It seems to have taken almost the full duration of this most recent partial lockdown to impact significantly on the infection and mortality rates.
Impossible, lockdowns don't work.
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(12-01-2020, 12:47 PM)Ted Maul Wrote: (12-01-2020, 12:03 PM)Ossian Wrote: It seems to have taken almost the full duration of this most recent partial lockdown to impact significantly on the infection and mortality rates.
Impossible, lockdowns don't work.
 Why I aughta........
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12-01-2020, 12:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2020, 01:00 PM by Ossian.)
(12-01-2020, 12:47 PM)baggy1 Wrote: The problem as I see it Oss is that we have stopped the number of hospitalisations increasing but we haven't reduced them. The decision to implement the 'firebreak' period should have been done when the numbers were low (and starting to rip) in order to keep them low. And until we get a vaccine we would need to keep doing that in short sharp shocks. When we entered lockdown on the 5th Nov there were 10,344 in hospital in England, as of the 29th there were 12,837, if we'd have locked down from a lower number at an earlier date we would now be at a lower number with room to take in more. We don't have that luxury now and are therefore having to enter into the tiers at such a high level that it is effectively an extension of the lockdown.
Labour called for the lockdown on 13th October when the hospitalised number was 3,905 and Sage called for it on the 21st September when the number was 1,381. More dithering by this bunch of morons has cost us in many ways.
My feeling - seeing the direction the figures were already heading in by the end of September - was that there were three helpful breaks already available to be utilised: October half-term, Christmas/New Year and February '21 half-term.
That's 4 weeks of schools shut-down already locked in. Adding a week to the two half-terms would have created the possibility of three possible 'fire breaks' of two weeks each, roughly evenly spaced out and with minimal disruption to children' education. The October one would have had the advantage of being an earlier intervention than the one the government eventually plumped for.
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(12-01-2020, 11:37 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Week 47 data is now out (to the 20th November) and again unfortunately there are over 2k more deaths than the 5YA. 12,535 people died in that week compared with the 5YA of 10,380 and 2019 figures of 10,882. If ever there was any confusion that this virus causes a considerably higher number of deaths than would normally occur then the past 6 weeks should convince everyone otherwise. In that time we have had over 8,000 more deaths than is normal at this time of year, when this started to occur back in April and May the comments included that these people were just dying early and it would even out, it hasn't and it doesn't look like it will whilst we have this with us.
In total, compared with 2019, we have 67.6k more deaths and when you look at the over 65s that accounts for 60k of that number. To put that into context, in 2019 there 445k deaths in the over 65 age group in total. With 5 weeks to go in the year we have added over 13% to that figure, and that is with restrictions in place don't forget.
The good news is that the numbers of people in hospital has started to fall slightly but it must be remembered that we are entering into the peak season for respiratory hospitalisations and we are already at a high level of occupancy of ICU beds. Also it must be remembered that if the decrease in hospital numbers follows the same path as in the summer it takes months to get down to the very low numbers we saw at the end of August.
All of these figures are just for England and Wales.
Yeah but can you say they are all down to Covid and not down the tooth fairy being a bit more active this year 
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(12-01-2020, 01:07 PM)strawman Wrote: (12-01-2020, 11:37 AM)baggy1 Wrote: Week 47 data is now out (to the 20th November) and again unfortunately there are over 2k more deaths than the 5YA. 12,535 people died in that week compared with the 5YA of 10,380 and 2019 figures of 10,882. If ever there was any confusion that this virus causes a considerably higher number of deaths than would normally occur then the past 6 weeks should convince everyone otherwise. In that time we have had over 8,000 more deaths than is normal at this time of year, when this started to occur back in April and May the comments included that these people were just dying early and it would even out, it hasn't and it doesn't look like it will whilst we have this with us.
In total, compared with 2019, we have 67.6k more deaths and when you look at the over 65s that accounts for 60k of that number. To put that into context, in 2019 there 445k deaths in the over 65 age group in total. With 5 weeks to go in the year we have added over 13% to that figure, and that is with restrictions in place don't forget.
The good news is that the numbers of people in hospital has started to fall slightly but it must be remembered that we are entering into the peak season for respiratory hospitalisations and we are already at a high level of occupancy of ICU beds. Also it must be remembered that if the decrease in hospital numbers follows the same path as in the summer it takes months to get down to the very low numbers we saw at the end of August.
All of these figures are just for England and Wales.
Yeah but can you say they are all down to Covid and not down the tooth fairy being a bit more active this year
This is true
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Has Billy left the building?
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It does appear so. His user id is black whatever that means.
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Pfizer vaccine approved for use in the UK.
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Another piece of good news, as much as this is really shit at the moment there really is light at the end of the tunnel. We just need a bit more patience because this won't be overnight and we are heading into winter which is the worst time for these viruses.
My wife had a FaceTime with her mate in Perth, WA last night and they have no restrictions at all. They were all out celebrating her 50th over the weekend in bars with no issues. Here's hoping we will be doing that next summer
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