UK Covid death toll

[JOK]

So, extrapolated, that’s nearly 6800 people who have Covid in Liverpool now, since testing began. Carrying that on that is going to be 68 people dying and countless others with long term, possibly permanent, health problems. In this short period. 
So you are suggesting these people and their loved ones do not exist? Or not “worth” taking precautions for? Charming person!

[billybassett]

So, extrapolated, that’s nearly 6800 people who have Covid in Liverpool now, since testing began. Carrying that on that is going to be 68 people dying and countless others with long term, possibly permanent, health problems. In this short period. 
So you are suggesting these people and their loved ones do not exist? Or not “worth” taking precautions for? Charming person!

Think you missed the pt JOK. But it's nice to know you're in Deko's camp about me actively wanting people to die - charming indeed.

There is a 0.7% positive test rate as described by 162 people out of 23K "with covid". But the false positive rate is higher than 0.7%. So if the false positive test rate is 0.7% then all 162 people actually are false positives and this there are 0 cases in 23K.

Now 3 things:

1. We know the false positive test rate for this LHR test is higher than 0.7% probably 1-1.5%
2. We know that the false positive test rate for the PCR test is therefore much higher than than the LHR test
3. We know Covid is still around

The ONS carry out random population screening to determine how many Covid ‘cases’ there are currently in the population. They do this using PCR tests in the same laboratories as community tests which are therefore subject to the same serious false positive problems. For this reason, the regions with laboratories with the highest false positive rate have the highest ONS predicted case rate and the most ‘cases’ in community testing. The ONS predicted 2.2% of the population of the North West had Covid in the last week of October. Their prediction for the week of November 1st to 7th will be published on Friday 13th. Assuming the later prediction is not dramatically different to before, this means that the Army tests have shown only one third of the ONS predicted cases. The Government will be left with a choice when faced with the gap between the 2.2% figure from PCR testing and the 0.7% figure found by the Army using the new test:

- They could argue that cases fell by two thirds, from 2.2% to 0.7% in a week, and risk being proved wrong with the next round of ONS testing.

- They may claim that these new tests are missing two thirds of cases, and then be forced to abandon the new test as defective. They will then be left with the contradiction of there being no cases being diagnosed in the Liverpool community, but apparently continuing problems in hospitals where everyone is tested.

- They will have to admit that the 0.7% test is actually more accurate and that therefore there are serious problems with false positives from the PCR test results and finally start addressing those problems.

[Tom Joad]

FWIW, I'm one of the randomly chosen folk that do a monthly ONS/Oxford Uni test. It was weekly for 4 weeks, now monthly. I asked if it would tell me if I'd had Covid, (I'm fairly certain I did in the days when tests were rarer than hens teeth), I was told no. But I was also told I would know pretty damn quick if I tested positive. So no false positives yet, in around 7 or 8 tests.
Anyway I'm back to work now, keep it civil lads, this thread is more informative than all the papers put together.

[baggy1]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

[billybassett]

When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

[billybassett]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

[Derek Hardballs]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

I’m still trying to fit the figures to what I believe rather than fact.

---

So, extrapolated, that’s nearly 6800 people who have Covid in Liverpool now, since testing began. Carrying that on that is going to be 68 people dying and countless others with long term, possibly permanent, health problems. In this short period. 
So you are suggesting these people and their loved ones do not exist? Or not “worth” taking precautions for? Charming person!

Think you missed the pt JOK. But it's nice to know you're in Deko's camp about me actively wanting people to die - charming indeed.

There is a 0.7% positive test rate as described by 162 people out of 23K "with covid". But the false positive rate is higher than 0.7%. So if the false positive test rate is 0.7% then all 162 people actually are false positives and this there are 0 cases in 23K.

Now 3 things:

1. We know the false positive test rate for this LHR test is higher than 0.7% probably 1-1.5%
2. We know that the false positive test rate for the PCR test is therefore much higher than than the LHR test
3. We know Covid is still around

The ONS carry out random population screening to determine how many Covid ‘cases’ there are currently in the population. They do this using PCR tests in the same laboratories as community tests which are therefore subject to the same serious false positive problems. For this reason, the regions with laboratories with the highest false positive rate have the highest ONS predicted case rate and the most ‘cases’ in community testing. The ONS predicted 2.2% of the population of the North West had Covid in the last week of October. Their prediction for the week of November 1st to 7th will be published on Friday 13th. Assuming the later prediction is not dramatically different to before, this means that the Army tests have shown only one third of the ONS predicted cases. The Government will be left with a choice when faced with the gap between the 2.2% figure from PCR testing and the 0.7% figure found by the Army using the new test:

- They could argue that cases fell by two thirds, from 2.2% to 0.7% in a week, and risk being proved wrong with the next round of ONS testing.

- They may claim that these new tests are missing two thirds of cases, and then be forced to abandon the new test as defective. They will then be left with the contradiction of there being no cases being diagnosed in the Liverpool community, but apparently continuing problems in hospitals where everyone is tested.

- They will have to admit that the 0.7% test is actually more accurate and that therefore there are serious problems with false positives from the PCR test results and finally start addressing those problems.

I never said you wanted people to die. Your idiotic idea that ‘it’s just the flu’ and we should all just ‘go back to normal‘ would / will lead to more people dying and becoming seriously ill if we follow the nonsense you are preaching. 

You seem to think the needs of the fittest should be paramount a charming perspective indeed!

[strawman]

When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

Nicely misses the point that even taking your point that excess deaths are  equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal, it hasn't been a NORMAL virulent flu year. Firstly most of the excess deaths, in this country anyway, are out of flu season and then there have not been any mass gatherings at football matches, gigs etc - people have been restricting the amount of people they visit etc in order to reduce the circumstances where people could be infected and be hospitalised and possibly die. How many more hospitalisations and deaths would there have been if we had carried on like a normal year ?

[billybassett]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

I’m still trying to fit the figures to what I believe rather than fact.

Wow you really are a bitter twat aren't you? Some of us are trying to keep people employed and businesses running amid this mockery as well as try to hold the govt to account on this rather than have their belly rubbed and tickled by them.

I've never once hidden my view from months ago. I've always tried to present sources and data from other websites as best I can. I always think hard before posting stuff. The post I have made was an honest post.

Like I say you're locked into a world view. By the looks of it I'm lucky enough to be a lot cleverer than you, obviously have way more self-awareness, an ability for self reflection and my first pt of call is to read about the things that most jar with my world view. I can happily say having done those things I'm happy with my view.

Your contribution to this bored generally is to sit in stalker mode waiting to be rude and fatuous and not add anything to an argument.

Call me arrogant - I don't care - but wow I'm so happy I'm me with my outlook and not you - a bitter and twisted conservative-liberal.

---

When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

Nicely misses the point that even taking your point that excess deaths are  equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal, it hasn't been a NORMAL virulent flu year. Firstly most of the excess deaths, in this country anyway, are out of flu season and then there have not been any mass gatherings at football matches, gigs etc - people have been restricting the amount of people they visit etc in order to reduce the circumstances where people could be infected and be hospitalised and possibly die. How many more hospitalisations and deaths would there have been if we had carried on like a normal year ?

Your right with all these measures all we've done is extend the flu season for no reason other than to kill the economy and other people down the line. There are no excess deaths since June. Sweden - classic gompertz curve for respiratory epidemics, no measures like us, living through it, miniscule deaths from Covid since July.

The intimation that we've saved more people from dying by having these measures is in my opinion way wide of the mark. But of course in a year/2 years time when we have excess deaths all over the place stacking up for all other diseases (like we're already seeing) then it will get brushed under the carpet and those trotting out the line you have will pretend it never happened. Plus not to mention the other affects on people due to poverty, education loss, mental health etc.

Biggest worldwide deaths from covid won't be the million who have "died" from it it will be the 10s of millions who die from starvation and poverty around the world because of the impact on economies due to the ridiculous measures imposed on us all.

[strawman]

Billy - FFS have you got me on ignore? You keep saying covid isn't any worse than flu and I keep asking you when we had a worse year for Flu, if you can let me know when that was I can dig out the figures for comparison.

Give me a chance!

I’m still trying to fit the figures to what I believe rather than fact.

Wow you really are a bitter twat aren't you? Some of us are trying to keep people employed and businesses running amid this mockery as well as try to hold the govt to account on this rather than have their belly rubbed and tickled by them.

I've never once hidden my view from months ago. I've always tried to present sources and data from other websites as best I can. I always think hard before posting stuff. The post I have made was an honest post.

Like I say you're locked into a world view. By the looks of it I'm lucky enough to be a lot cleverer than you, obviously have way more self-awareness, an ability for self reflection and my first pt of call is to read about the things that most jar with my world view. I can happily say having done those things I'm happy with my view.

Your contribution to this bored generally is to sit in stalker mode waiting to be rude and fatuous and not add anything to an argument.

Call me arrogant - I don't care - but wow I'm so happy I'm me with my outlook and not you - a bitter and twisted conservative-liberal.

---

When you say expected results, what does that mean? Are these results of tests carried out so far?

And you didn't let me know when you thought there was a worse year (or even comparable) for flu deaths. Is there a particular year that I should look at?

So for example Excess Winter Deaths via the ONS

2017-18 49,410
2014-15 43,720
2008-09 36,330
1999-00 48,420

Notably current 5y average runs at circa 36K. Also note 2019-20 flu season was estimated at 15K excess deaths below that.

Also note that via the ONS for these years it states "Respiratory diseases continued to be the leading cause of excess winter deaths".

I'll quote a few older ones:

1989-90 47,200
1975-76 58,100
1962-63 89,600
1950-51 106,400

So if we want to take the current higher number of 61,648 Deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate (as opposed to 49,770 Deaths within 28 days of positive test) then there is an increase in excess deaths equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal.

A few things that I've not considered yet directly but will put out there

- Period of reporting - for the purposes of 2019-20 winter excess deaths the flu season would end (as per other posts on here) this April/May. Thus should the 2019-20 winter excess deaths figure include some of those who may have died from covid Feb-Apr? May explain the 15K on average lower deaths reported for the 2019-20 season.

- Are all 61,648 deaths of Covid? Or were they tested positive for Covid (false positives aside) but died of a previous underlying condition. On this I would say every year since time immemorial people have had pneumonia put on their death certificate as cause of death but as I know personally that wasn't the killer that was because they were dying lying down in an hospital bed for weeks on end. Tbh a tragic suffering and extension to life in many cases.

- We are currently seeing there are no influenza cases and virtually no deaths from any other respiratory illnesses bar Covid. So the reckoning for excess deaths in this 2020-21 season will be interesting in light of the fact that: many vulnerable people have already succumbed; the lag on non-respiratory excess deaths that we are now seeing coming through because other health issues have been put aside because we've only been treating one illness for 8 mths; and a possible kicking the can down the line into future months because of lockdowns.

So as a conclusion from just this information would the appropriate response at the start of this month - given this data - lead you to believe that Covid is so much more lethal than any other influenza that we have to lock everyone away, kill over a longer period healthy people who are missing treatment and savage the economy, business and livelihoods.

I'm not seeing it whatsoever. It's corruption, fraud and negligence.

Nicely misses the point that even taking your point that excess deaths are  equivalent to a a more virulent flu season than normal, it hasn't been a NORMAL virulent flu year. Firstly most of the excess deaths, in this country anyway, are out of flu season and then there have not been any mass gatherings at football matches, gigs etc - people have been restricting the amount of people they visit etc in order to reduce the circumstances where people could be infected and be hospitalised and possibly die. How many more hospitalisations and deaths would there have been if we had carried on like a normal year ?

Your right with all these measures all we've done is extend the flu season for no reason other than to kill the economy and other people down the line. There are no excess deaths since June. Sweden - classic gompertz curve for respiratory epidemics, no measures like us, living through it, miniscule deaths from Covid since July.

The intimation that we've saved more people from dying by having these measures is in my opinion way wide of the mark. But of course in a year/2 years time when we have excess deaths all over the place stacking up for all other diseases (like we're already seeing) then it will get brushed under the carpet and those trotting out the line you have will pretend it never happened. Plus not to mention the other affects on people due to poverty, education loss, mental health etc.

Biggest worldwide deaths from covid won't be the million who have "died" from it it will be the 10s of millions who die from starvation and poverty around the world because of the impact on economies due to the ridiculous measures imposed on us all.

Just introduced new restrictions 
"We are going in the wrong direction. The situation is very serious," Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said. "Now, every citizen needs to take responsibility. We know how dangerous this is."