UK Covid death toll

[Borin' Baggie]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

We don't have the welfare system to support that, a market based approach wouldn't work unless there's full compensation enabling those who do want to lock down to actually do that otherwise you're restricting choice through finances.

What about doing the right thing remember those days putting others first??

I seriously have no idea what you're referring to or the relevance of this reply to my post.

[The liquidator]

You said through finances I've put it putting others first instead of yourself.... Or I might be missing something.

[Borin' Baggie]

You said through finances I've put it putting others first instead of yourself.... Or I might be missing something.

If you need to to self isolate based on a diagnosis or underlying health conditions then there needs to be financially viable to do so otherwise you won't, this is common sense. It's all well and good saying let the market decide as Proth is arguing but you need to incentivise the market to react otherwise nobody would do so as statutory sick pay in this country is absolutely pitiful (less than £100 per week). The only reason Sweden sort of managed to let people decide is because the Swedish government cover 90% of pay as sick pay and therefore there isn't a financial disincentive to not self isolate.

[Protheroe]

Does it not concern the anti-lockdown brigade that their allies seem to be Farage, Tice, Robinson et al?

Exactly the majority of those who seem to be joining this bandwagon are on the furthest edge of right wing ideology. It would concern me, as do the reasons they give being almost the same whoever speaks them. Dare I say they are an echo-chamber of opinion.

It concerns me just as much that the Lockdown Junkies are the usual authoritarian big state suspects too.

The answer lies somewhere in between as it has since March. Selective lockdown of the most vulnerable (if they choose to).

We don't have the welfare system to support that, a market based approach wouldn't work unless there's full compensation enabling those who do want to lock down to actually do that otherwise you're restricting choice through finances.

You could more than support people to lockdown by not having to pay furlough. It's as simple as that.

[baggy1]

Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)

That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern

4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264

Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.2 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be

11th November - 12,412
18th November - 14,895
25th November - 17,874 (this will be three weeks after lockdown and the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations peak at about the same as April, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

[strawman]

Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)

That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern

4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264

Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 11,047 (1.29 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.3 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be 

11th November - 14,361 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 18,669
25th November - 24,270 (this will be three weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations higher than the April peak, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

Not sure you should trust the Government slides - seems they are not averse to knowingly using out of date data

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334

[baggy1]

I always have stuck to just two stats SM, excess deaths and hospitalisations, everything else is just fluff (number of tests completed, positive tests etc). And I've only used one stat from the slides, that being yesterdays number in hospital (they haven't updated gov.uk yet).

[strawman]

I always have stuck to just two stats SM, excess deaths and hospitalisations, everything else is just fluff (number of tests completed, positive tests etc). And I've only used one stat from the slides, that being yesterdays number in hospital (they haven't updated gov.uk yet).

Agreed and that's best way- problem is if they are basically lying about some of the stuff, then it's just grist to the mill to the deniers - A great excuse to say you are lying to us so sod ya we'll do what we like

[Borin' Baggie]

Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)

That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern

4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264

Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Oct - 11,047 (1.29 x pw)

Positive news in that the growth rate has reduced to 1.3 when it has been running at 1.4 for so long which if extrapolated would be 

11th November - 14,361 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 18,669
25th November - 24,270 (this will be three weeks after lockdown)
2nd December  - declining figures after lockdown follow a slower rate than the increase before the peak.

Effectively putting the lockdown in place this week means that, if we follow the same pattern as the 1st wave, then we will have hospitalisations higher than the April peak, but there does appear to be a better survival rate this time.

Not sure you should trust the Government slides - seems they are not averse to knowingly using out of date data

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334

It's dependant on whether they're using internal government data or ONS data, surely? The latter has been pretty good from what I can tell, it's the former that's dodgy as fuck. Though given the former is only accountable to the Cabinet and the latter is accountable to Parliament it makes sense.

[baggy1]

True SM, and that has definitely happened. I’ve seen a real focus on accuracy of tests and the models that one fro that when keeping it simple by following a trend and using the experience from earlier in the year seems to be running true.