UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Just as an aside I carried out an antibody test today and it was negative. I don't think I've had Covid so far.

[Derek Hardballs]

https://intermountainhealthcare.org/blog...-outbreak/

Of course it's a bleeding pandemic, it's the most pandemic of the pandemics we have had in a century:



Let’s start with basic definitions:

• AN EPIDEMIC is a disease that affects a large number of people within a community, population, or region.
  
  
• A PANDEMIC is an epidemic that’s spread over multiple countries or continents.
  
  
• ENDEMIC is something that belongs to a particular people or country.
  
  
• AN OUTBREAK is a greater-than-anticipated increase in the number of endemic cases. It can also be a single case in a new area. If it’s not quickly controlled, an outbreak can become an epidemic.
  

So influenza is a pandemic then every year.

---

If you don't realise it's a pandemic not an endemic to start with then you really are towing the conspiracy theory line. This is nothing like the flu, we've had 60k excess deaths so far this year, no flu season has even come close to that and we have only had this in the spring / summer months, we haven't even got to winter. We are still learning about this and you have written it off as a bad flu season, nothing to see here - that is real conspiracy theory shit. Earlier on in the year someone on here was saying, it will even out over the year, people are just dying early - madness.

And the lockdown is a short break to stop the increasing hospital admissions, it isn't a long term, no end in sight lockdown.

I'm not towing the conspiracy line - stop being naughty - trying to dismiss me as some crank FFS. I could easily same the reverse of you - sheep, dim witted and taken in - but I know you're not you're genuinely trying to understand what's going on.

It's not a pandemic baggy. In March they thought it was because the data from Italy and China initially showed 3% mortality because of the very specific conditions at that time. I'll say it again for you mortality rate is now in the region 0.12-0.2% as per respected Ionanndis (Stanford WHO). And if you really believe every one of those covid deaths was specifically a death due to specifically to covid - given how they were/weren't tested, comorbidities, coroner rules and the length of time of declaration then I'm afraid you are not looking closely enough. All very tragic yes.

But I'm not going to sit by whilst people posit half or mis truths about this.

It's pretty much exactly like the 4 seasonal corona viruses that are in circulation (80% genome the exact same). Hence why people can be tested +v and asymptomatic because of their auto immune memory response.

It's also why we see no affect to lockdowns because it's endemic.

And if I hear any more about protecting hospitals and admissions I'll scream. I don't remember a post on here last November when admissions were higher across the country.

One thing I can guarantee is a wall of silence next year when cancers, cardiac, mental health issues are all rising and young people's prospects are flushed away down the toilet.

I’m pretty sure I mentioned the lack of capacity within the NHS last year to cope during the winter. You might have missed it but I’ve been quite critical of the last decade of Conservative governance.  

Also you don’t see a link between social distancing measures and a lower than average flu season? By now I would normally expect to have had two or three colds I’ve had none because I’m working from home and not meeting hundreds of people.

I really would ask you to reread what you've written. Think about it. If respiratory illnesses were significantly limited by the measures we've put in place there would be overall a drop in respiratory illnesses as a total. We have currently a similar number of respiratory illness admissions to hospital as we have done as an average over the past 5 years. The difference is some are branded flu and some are branded covid. Both are basically the same covid=flu.

Thus the measures you've described are actually making no difference whatsoever other than kill jobs and other people via other illnesses.

"A true influenza pandemic occurs when almost simultaneous transmission takes place worldwide. In the case of pandemic influenza A(H1N1), widespread transmission was documented in both hemispheres between April and September 2009. Transmission occurred early in the influenza season in the temperate southern hemisphere but out of season in the northern hemisphere. This out-of-season transmission is what characterizes an influenza pandemic, as distinct from a pandemic due to another type of virus."

https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/

"Virology

Both influenza and coronaviruses have a single strand of RNA as their genome, but that is where the genomic similarity ends. The influenza virus genome comprises 7 or 8 segments, while the coronavirus has one long strand. Influenza virus RNA is what is known as ‘negative sense RNA’. This means that its sequence is the mirror image of the correct code for proteins and a complementary strand must be made from it before production of new viruses within a host cell can proceed. In contrast, the coronavirus genome is ‘positive sense’ which means it can act as messenger RNA and code for proteins. So from a virological point of view, coronavirus is definitely not a type of flu."

In August reporting that flu and the common cold were down five times lower than in a normal year (report Aug 2020). Two reasons given / hypothesised better hygiene and social distancing and people not wishing to burden the NHS (their GPS) with colds etc. 

Report

Or an example from Australia where flu rates plunged in their winter because erm they socially distanced. 

Flu Australia

[baggy1]

Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.

Another Friday update on figures that are still following the same pattern for the last few weeks now of number of people in hospital and on ventilators (hospitalisations increasing by 50% each week. It's probably worth adding the weekly figures for the last few weeks to show the growth and add a bit of context.

Numbers in Hospital:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
8th Oct - 3,044 (1.34 x pw) (I've adjusted this because it was 8 days data therefore reducing the growth to measure 7 days)
15th Oct - 4,379 (1.43 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.59 x pw) (this is based on only 6 days growth multiplied up to 7 days as they are slow on getting yesterdays figures out today)

That shows us there is a steady growth week on week of hospitalisations. If it continues at a lower growth rate of 1.4x that will give us figures of 8,400 next week, 11.5k (ish) the 1st week of November and 16.5k the week after. the peak for hospitalisations was 17k in April. At the current growth rate we are 3 weeks off that. The numbers started falling 3 weeks after lockdown.

That was the bad news, now the less bad news - the excess death figures haven't increased as of week ended 9th October (which is the most recent data) but that will be a good indicator of how the seriousness of this is when we have it. The equivalent date to where we are with the figures was 23rd March (based on a two week lag) when we had 3,097 in hospital (compared with two weeks ago 8th Oct above). That week ending 27th Match showed 1k excess deaths over the 5YA, we haven't seen that this time.

Also a large part of the excess deaths earlier in the year came from sending old folk back into care homes where it spread like wildfire. As far as I am aware the government have no plans to do that this time. I've seen estimate of that accounted for up to 20k of the 54k excess deaths in England and Wales.

And we are a lot more careful now than we were in March which should also mitigate against the deaths. I've seen some quotes that the virus is less dangerous this time, I think that is debatable based on we have better mitigation in place this time (treatment, public consciousness etc) which will reduce the virus' effectiveness. Whichever way there appear to be less deaths this time.

People on Ventilators is also another way of showing how things are better this time. The last time we had 6k in hospital was the 27th March, on the 2nd April (1st day of measurement in England) they had 1,494 people on ventilators, we have 571 as of Wednesday and that number is growing slowly (about 100 a week) and therefore is very unlikely to match what we had in April.

Next couple of weeks will tell us a lot more with the data so keep safe folks.

On the 8th October I said that by the end of the month there would be 10k in hospital in England, as of yesterday (28th) there are 8.5k and that number is rising by about 4 or 5 hundred a day at the moment. If a complete amateur like me can predict the numbers then why can't the government do anything apart form stare into the headlights on this one. If we continue of the same path as we have now for the last 6 weeks for the next 6 weeks (up to just before Christmas) we will have 40k in hospital. 

There needs to be something done quickly because we cannot just let this increase at this rate. Taking up hospital beds with covid means that the non-covid treatments get sidelined causing a longer term problem. This week we've seen a slight increase in the delayed data for excess deaths, I pray to God that number is only another slight increase next week.

[Derek Hardballs]

Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.

Another Friday update on figures that are still following the same pattern for the last few weeks now of number of people in hospital and on ventilators (hospitalisations increasing by 50% each week. It's probably worth adding the weekly figures for the last few weeks to show the growth and add a bit of context.

Numbers in Hospital:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
8th Oct - 3,044 (1.34 x pw) (I've adjusted this because it was 8 days data therefore reducing the growth to measure 7 days)
15th Oct - 4,379 (1.43 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.59 x pw) (this is based on only 6 days growth multiplied up to 7 days as they are slow on getting yesterdays figures out today)

That shows us there is a steady growth week on week of hospitalisations. If it continues at a lower growth rate of 1.4x that will give us figures of 8,400 next week, 11.5k (ish) the 1st week of November and 16.5k the week after. the peak for hospitalisations was 17k in April. At the current growth rate we are 3 weeks off that. The numbers started falling 3 weeks after lockdown.

That was the bad news, now the less bad news - the excess death figures haven't increased as of week ended 9th October (which is the most recent data) but that will be a good indicator of how the seriousness of this is when we have it. The equivalent date to where we are with the figures was 23rd March (based on a two week lag) when we had 3,097 in hospital (compared with two weeks ago 8th Oct above). That week ending 27th Match showed 1k excess deaths over the 5YA, we haven't seen that this time.

Also a large part of the excess deaths earlier in the year came from sending old folk back into care homes where it spread like wildfire. As far as I am aware the government have no plans to do that this time. I've seen estimate of that accounted for up to 20k of the 54k excess deaths in England and Wales.

And we are a lot more careful now than we were in March which should also mitigate against the deaths. I've seen some quotes that the virus is less dangerous this time, I think that is debatable based on we have better mitigation in place this time (treatment, public consciousness etc) which will reduce the virus' effectiveness. Whichever way there appear to be less deaths this time.

People on Ventilators is also another way of showing how things are better this time. The last time we had 6k in hospital was the 27th March, on the 2nd April (1st day of measurement in England) they had 1,494 people on ventilators, we have 571 as of Wednesday and that number is growing slowly (about 100 a week) and therefore is very unlikely to match what we had in April.

Next couple of weeks will tell us a lot more with the data so keep safe folks.

On the 8th October I said that by the end of the month there would be 10k in hospital in England, as of yesterday (28th) there are 8.5k and that number is rising by about 4 or 5 hundred a day at the moment. If a complete amateur like me can predict the numbers then why can't the government do anything apart form stare into the headlights on this one. If we continue of the same path as we have now for the last 6 weeks for the next 6 weeks (up to just before Christmas) we will have 40k in hospital. 

There needs to be something done quickly because we cannot just let this increase at this rate. Taking up hospital beds with covid means that the non-covid treatments get sidelined causing a longer term problem. This week we've seen a slight increase in the delayed data for excess deaths, I pray to God that number is only another slight increase next week.

They’ve backed themselves into a political cul-de-sac and can’t be seen to endorse Labours circuit break proposal so they will plough on doubling down on their excuses. You know B1

[baggy1]

They’ve backed themselves into a political cul-de-sac and can’t be seen to endorse Labours circuit break proposal so they will plough on doubling down on their excuses. You know B1

Unfortunately that is the only explanation for this inaction. What a fucking state of affairs, the government are paralysed because of not wanting to look politically foolish when we have the worst crisis we have faced for decades.

[Ted Maul]

National lockdown to be announced next week apparently.

If only there was some kind of school holiday recently that would have been the perfect time to do this. What a shambles.

[The liquidator]

Don't know why people are getting wound up about it anymore..... Its not going anywhere lockdown or no lockdown a week either way ain't going to make any difference one bit....... Just make intensive care manageable and we go again...

[baggy1]

Numbers in Hospital:
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
8th Oct - 3,044 (1.34 x pw) (I've adjusted this because it was 8 days data therefore reducing the growth to measure 7 days)
15th Oct - 4,379 (1.43 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.59 x pw) (this is based on only 6 days growth multiplied up to 7 days as they are slow on getting yesterdays figures out today)

Probably worth updating this with 7 day figures after todays news, leaks, denials of news, denials of leaks, and investigations into the leaks that have been denied. Anyway these are hospital beds in use for covid only for England:

16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)

That is what you call a constant trend and can be safe to place some confidence in the fact that if nothing changes the trend will continue. If it continues without any changes the figures will increase by 1.4 each week in the following pattern

4th November - 11,949
11th November - 16,728 (the peak in April was 17,172 on the 12th April which was 3 weeks after lockdown)
18th November - 23,420
25th November - 32,788 (this will be three weeks after lockdown if we act this week)
2nd December - 45,903
9th December - 64,264

Now taking the positives from what we know, there is better treatment for patients now which is reducing the related deaths of those hospitalised. The downside to that is they stay in hospital longer and continue to take up resource. There is also a lot more awareness of how this is spreading and precautions are in place by individuals - the downside to that is people are stopping from going out and spending in the economy because it appears that by doing that the virus spreads faster which leads to a slow death for business.

[richbaggie]

Crackpot or reality? I genuinely don't know but my overriding feeling is that we will look back at this time in history and scratch our head at how we managed the situation.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=yout...y51GICqL9E

[billybassett]

Mike Yeadon former Chief Scientific Officer at Pfizer for many years in immunology and virus.

Studied with Vallance I think from the same text book.

Absolutely completely spot on . No crackpot, Just a man with 35 years experience in the very thing we are dealing with