UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Just a quick point Billy on the 900 flu and 300 covid figures from the NHS, I hadn't paid that much attention to them but are they the same as the ones for the week ending 2nd oct (last available) on the ONS data detailed as:
Deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory disease: 901, and
Deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate: 321
Because if they are then you are probably misquoting the data there, the respiratory figure could include those 321 with covid and don't necessarily all relate to flu. Just a guess by the way because the figures are so close to yours and I've only just noticed it.

[PeakBaggie]

Yes but firstly, we now have Flue and Covid.

Secondly, you are stating  it’s ok to let Covid run rampant because it rarely kills 0 to 65 years old people. So, that’s all right then. Bugger the vulnerable and elderly.

My daughter works in ICU and has lost 2 colleagues including one consultant this year to COVID and has had to hold the hand of many 
that have suffered and passed with the terrible vitus. Try telling her and her colleagues that they don't know the difference between the 
virus and the flu.

The unit is full, they will shortly be moving COVID patients into the HD beds, that means many operations will be unable to go ahead
so try telling the surgeons and thaertre staff that it is no worse than the average flu season. 

Perhaps those who feel strongly about the virus being less of a threat than reported can spare some time to volunteer, wear some PPE
(or not) and hold the hand of those suffering or make the call to the realtives to break the sad news that thier loved one has passed.

Heartbreaking. My wife is a key worker and in the summer had to do all sorts.

Try talking to a friend who's probably going to die of cancer because he never had his scan 6mths ago. We all have these stories and each of them is a tragedy. It's not about 1 patient or another it's about all of us. There will be plenty of deaths and tragedy down the line nothing to do with Covid and I can guarantee you this bored will be quiet as a mouse when it does and the govt will wash it all away as white noise or nothing to do with our response to covid.

The total incompetent management of this virus is the true tragedy.

I think that incompetent management is being kind to them, despite the fact that many other parts of the
World have struggled, this lot have and are perfoming like the keystone cops.

You are right about what is coming down the tracks as a result of the handling of this virus, but that means
that we should be taking steps to deal with this and mitigate instead of throwing £bn's at private companies  
that simply steal your watch and then want to charge you for asking them for the time.

We want to trust our government to be over the detail, but we all know that they are simply not and now are
so powerless they have to bargain with local councils to agree the plans set at national level, flawed as they
are. We face a winter of more deaths, more unemployment, more dithering and even less leadership.

[billybassett]

Just a quick point Billy on the 900 flu and 300 covid figures from the NHS, I hadn't paid that much attention to them but are they the same as the ones for the week ending 2nd oct (last available) on the ONS data detailed as:
Deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory disease: 901, and
Deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate: 321
Because if they are then you are probably misquoting the data there, the respiratory figure could include those 321 with covid and don't necessarily all relate to flu. Just a guess by the way because the figures are so close to yours and I've only just noticed it.

I think I sourced them from August from: Daily number of death occurrences where Influenza and Pneumonia or COVID-19 were the underlying cause of death, 5-year average and 2020, England and Wales1,2,3,4,5,6

   

The interesting thing is the rules were changed on what/how to declare on the death certificate in March I believe. So Covid could be added to the death certificate if the person who died showed Covid symptoms even if they hadn't been tested. But as we know Covid symptoms are flu symptoms and in March April nobody really knew about the smell and taste indicator.

[Derek Hardballs]

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

Is that the sound of a dropping penny I hear?

How many people died of Covid 19 compared to flu in the same time period? How many people are suffering from long term effects of flu compared to Covid 19? 

You still haven’t explained why governments across the world are plunging their economies into turmoil  and damaging their popularity (Brexit and Trumpian cultists are the exception obviously) for something less deadly than the flu?

You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable can be kept safe if other members of the family have to go to school and work etc?

It seems to me that we can all pick a scientist who shares our own opinion on the situation.

Err in August - latest figures I can get from NHS england - is that circa 900 people died of flu and 320 of Covid. And yes I know I'm picking 1 month and I know that we've had a tragic loss of 40K+ lives. It's awful and I know those who have passed. I also know 2 people, one who's cancer treatment was delayed and is now likely terminal and another who was due for a routine scan in March that never happened until September and now has a cancer that if it can been caught in March would have had high 70s survival but now is low 20s. But you keep on suggesting, absolutely contrary to all scientific evidence, that this is a lethal virus. Please stop saying it.

This is a more contagious "respiratory" virus. On it's lethality it's a bit early to say on exact figures as some studies suggest an overall lower lethality, some the same lethality and others an order of 0.1-0.3% increase on total mortality rate for this vector.

As for "You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable..." I have told you but you refuse to hear. You do it the same as you would in any winter flu season due to the para above with regards to its lethality.

The thing is, you like the majority of the population, have never actually thought about how lethal flu is. So year on year you've lived in your naïve little bubble and thankfully/gratefully (I mean this sincerely) you and your family have come through and been fine. That, again thankfully, is what happens to most as flu and covid aren't lethal. And hopefully the world will go back to that sane place. As described on another message for 5 years my mother-in-law lived on and off with us on oxygen 24hrs a day. Any flu would have killed her. We were acutely aware of that. We managed it and she lived a happy end to her years. What we didn't do is adversely (severely) affect millions of other healthy people.

As for your final point. Go read the SAGE advisory committee's backgrounds and who they're associated to. There's plenty of fingers in plenty of pies. I choose to read the science from journals and other reports I'm lucky enough to get through my wife working in the pharma industry.

As for why are govts doing this? Good Q. I think that in March there was a panic, little was known about the virus and whether it would just be another flu strain. So they locked down - probably rightly. They gave us time to understand what the illness is and treat it more effectively. A lot of money trails have been set up then, PCR useless tests, track and trace -waste of time too slow, vaccines, ppe contracts, showboating nightingales etc etc... All these trails now need to be fed. But after 7 months lots is known about covid - it's just a slightly more contagious equally lethal (but not much more) strain of a well know respiratory virus (mers-covid, sars-cov2, HK.. etc). That's it. We know how to manage it because for 50years we've managed it the same way through a set of growing measures culminating in recent years in a 30-40% successful flu vaccine (that fails on all counts 2-3 yrs out of 10).

I'll keep posting Dekka because you're obsession with locking down everything to protect a few, when the risks are clear and evidenced, is akin to consciously killing more other people more slowly.

---

I'll get you another Q to answer Dekka as I was looking at this last night.

How many people of "working age" have died from Covid?

Circa 37m people 18-65 of working age. Remember also deaths from Covid for ages below 18 is statistically 0 so you could say 0-65 but I'll keep it simple.

I've got the ONS figure.. I've also got another figure that seems to suggest that figure is way too high...

The trouble is you’re reading what you want into my posts. 

I’m not a lockdown junky as Proth accused me of and neither have i sensationalised anything. I have given figures from the Office of National Statistics. That is not scaremongering. Neither does believing we have to find a middle way through this mean I’m addicted to lockdown.

I have never used the word ‘lethal’ on any thread regarding Covid 19. So please don’t say I have. That said it’s clear it is to some people the virus proves fatal.

As for stats between Flu, Pneumonia and Covid here’s another source to consider Full Fact link 
This link also debunks the notion just 0.1 die Full Fact 2

My opinion is this for clarification.

I believe we have to strike a very difficult balance between suppressing / minimising the virus whilst ensuring the economy can operate as well as it possibly can. I believe the compromise isn’t great but without it those who need medical attention be they cancer, strokes or Covid patients will suffer through a lack of capacity and by capacity I mean the ratio between staff to beds to treat people. 

I don’t believe that the scientific, medical and pharmaceutical companies are colluding to ensure they make billions at the expense of most of if not all of the worlds economies. 

I believe that you should not expect those shielding and their families to lose their ‘liberty’ to accommodate the freedom of others. I think punishment for breaking the rules should be enforced properly. Perhaps that may have helped the situation?

With regards to our government and I say ‘our’ with a very heavy heart, handling of the situation, well to paraphrase Blackadder... Well it started badly, it tailed off a little in the middle and I suspect the less said about the end the better! It wasn’t inevitable that we would be in this position, it wasn’t necessary to spend billions giving out contracts to companies linked to the Conservative’s, it wasn’t inevitable that Track and Trace would be so ineptly handled but we are where we are. So they are now in a position where they cannot please anyone and are now muddling along reacting rather than being proactive. 

We see things differently probably due to circumstances. You show me your truth and I’ll show you mine 

[billybassett]

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

Is that the sound of a dropping penny I hear?

How many people died of Covid 19 compared to flu in the same time period? How many people are suffering from long term effects of flu compared to Covid 19? 

You still haven’t explained why governments across the world are plunging their economies into turmoil  and damaging their popularity (Brexit and Trumpian cultists are the exception obviously) for something less deadly than the flu?

You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable can be kept safe if other members of the family have to go to school and work etc?

It seems to me that we can all pick a scientist who shares our own opinion on the situation.

Err in August - latest figures I can get from NHS england - is that circa 900 people died of flu and 320 of Covid. And yes I know I'm picking 1 month and I know that we've had a tragic loss of 40K+ lives. It's awful and I know those who have passed. I also know 2 people, one who's cancer treatment was delayed and is now likely terminal and another who was due for a routine scan in March that never happened until September and now has a cancer that if it can been caught in March would have had high 70s survival but now is low 20s. But you keep on suggesting, absolutely contrary to all scientific evidence, that this is a lethal virus. Please stop saying it.

This is a more contagious "respiratory" virus. On it's lethality it's a bit early to say on exact figures as some studies suggest an overall lower lethality, some the same lethality and others an order of 0.1-0.3% increase on total mortality rate for this vector.

As for "You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable..." I have told you but you refuse to hear. You do it the same as you would in any winter flu season due to the para above with regards to its lethality.

The thing is, you like the majority of the population, have never actually thought about how lethal flu is. So year on year you've lived in your naïve little bubble and thankfully/gratefully (I mean this sincerely) you and your family have come through and been fine. That, again thankfully, is what happens to most as flu and covid aren't lethal. And hopefully the world will go back to that sane place. As described on another message for 5 years my mother-in-law lived on and off with us on oxygen 24hrs a day. Any flu would have killed her. We were acutely aware of that. We managed it and she lived a happy end to her years. What we didn't do is adversely (severely) affect millions of other healthy people.

As for your final point. Go read the SAGE advisory committee's backgrounds and who they're associated to. There's plenty of fingers in plenty of pies. I choose to read the science from journals and other reports I'm lucky enough to get through my wife working in the pharma industry.

As for why are govts doing this? Good Q. I think that in March there was a panic, little was known about the virus and whether it would just be another flu strain. So they locked down - probably rightly. They gave us time to understand what the illness is and treat it more effectively. A lot of money trails have been set up then, PCR useless tests, track and trace -waste of time too slow, vaccines, ppe contracts, showboating nightingales etc etc... All these trails now need to be fed. But after 7 months lots is known about covid - it's just a slightly more contagious equally lethal (but not much more) strain of a well know respiratory virus (mers-covid, sars-cov2, HK.. etc). That's it. We know how to manage it because for 50years we've managed it the same way through a set of growing measures culminating in recent years in a 30-40% successful flu vaccine (that fails on all counts 2-3 yrs out of 10).

I'll keep posting Dekka because you're obsession with locking down everything to protect a few, when the risks are clear and evidenced, is akin to consciously killing more other people more slowly.

---

I'll get you another Q to answer Dekka as I was looking at this last night.

How many people of "working age" have died from Covid?

Circa 37m people 18-65 of working age. Remember also deaths from Covid for ages below 18 is statistically 0 so you could say 0-65 but I'll keep it simple.

I've got the ONS figure.. I've also got another figure that seems to suggest that figure is way too high...

The trouble is you’re reading what you want into my posts. 

I’m not a lockdown junky as Proth accused me of and neither have i sensationalised anything. I have given figures from the Office of National Statistics. That is not scaremongering. Neither does believing we have to find a middle way through this mean I’m addicted to lockdown.

I have never used the word ‘lethal’ on any thread regarding Covid 19. So please don’t say I have. That said it’s clear it is to some people the virus proves fatal.

As for stats between Flu, Pneumonia and Covid here’s another source to consider Full Fact link 
This link also debunks the notion just 0.1 die Full Fact 2

My opinion is this for clarification.

I believe we have to strike a very difficult balance between suppressing / minimising the virus whilst ensuring the economy can operate as well as it possibly can. I believe the compromise isn’t great but without it those who need medical attention be they cancer, strokes or Covid patients will suffer through a lack of capacity and by capacity I mean the ratio between staff to beds to treat people. 

I don’t believe that the scientific, medical and pharmaceutical companies are colluding to ensure they make billions at the expense of most of if not all of the worlds economies. 

I believe that you should not expect those shielding and their families to lose their ‘liberty’ to accommodate the freedom of others. I think punishment for breaking the rules should be enforced properly. Perhaps that may have helped the situation?

With regards to our government and I say ‘our’ with a very heavy heart, handling of the situation, well to paraphrase Blackadder... Well it started badly, it tailed off a little in the middle and I suspect the less said about the end the better! It wasn’t inevitable that we would be in this position, it wasn’t necessary to spend billions giving out contracts to companies linked to the Conservative’s, it wasn’t inevitable that Track and Trace would be so ineptly handled but we are where we are. So they are now in a position where they cannot please anyone and are now muddling along reacting rather than being proactive. 

We see things differently probably due to circumstances. You show me your truth and I’ll show you mine 

"This link also debunks the notion just 0.1 die"
WHO report this week looking at circa 61 studies across the world suggests an IFR of 0.23%.

"I believe that you should not expect those shielding and their families to lose their ‘liberty’ to accommodate the freedom of others"

I think this is where we differ. For the last 50 years severe flus have come and gone and if you are vulnerable you take measures to reduce risk. This isn't about losing liberty it's about managing overall risk/costs etc. What we've actually done is reverse to your statement. 99% of the population have lost their liberty not to mention livelihoods and businesses over the last 7 months. It's not much to ask for a month or so for those more vulnerable to take the hit just themselves for a while is it while others rebuild their lives?

[Shabby Russian]

I think the issue that Billy and Proth continue to miss or avoid is this.

What should the NHS do when demand for their services outstrips their ability to meet it.

From what i have gathered from their posts on this issue is that they think restrictions should be lifted. They both seem to think that this will not result in demand outstripping supply in the NHS, but offer very little in the way of evidence or logic to back this assumption up.

If their assumptions on this prove to be wrong, are they willing to accept a situation where people who have covid and need urgent hospital treatment are denied that treatment. It's a simple question but one that never seems to get answered.

[bradesbaggie]

[billybassett]

I think the issue that Billy and Proth continue to miss or avoid is this.

What should the NHS do when demand for their services outstrips their ability to meet it.

From what i have gathered from their posts on this issue is that they think restrictions should be lifted. They both seem to think that this will not result in demand outstripping supply in the NHS, but offer very little in the way of evidence or logic to back this assumption up.

If their assumptions on this prove to be wrong, are they willing to accept a situation where people who have covid and need urgent hospital treatment are denied that treatment. It's a simple question but one that never seems to get answered.

"They both seem to think that this will not result in demand outstripping supply in the NHS": This happens every winter hence the issues that come round each year about people in corridors etc. We also by all accounts have a number of nightingale hospitals. Of course we all know that was just a PR stunt because we'll never have the staff to service them.

"It's a simple question but one that never seems to get answered.": they won't be denied treatment they may have to wait longer than they should have to - if only we had a well financed and organised NHS (Austria has more beds than us I think - will need to check again). That wait may well see a small proportion of the small proportion of covid patients that required treatment of the very small proportion of people "that test positive" (see previous posts about PCR test is useless) actually die because of poor treatment. We are talking about, tragically, in this hypothesis (because it's based on your hypothesis that we will run out beds) of a set of people who die. Maybe 100s say - and don't start to give me Clown Vallance's projections ffs.

If that's in one side of the measuring scale then the enormous grief, damage in all areas in the other half of the scale (non-Covid matters health and economy) is so much heavier it's embarrassing that any sane human would even consider that locking down further is in somehow a good idea. I'd say those people are almost culpable of manslaughter on a massive scale.

[Protheroe]

I think the issue that Billy and Proth continue to miss or avoid is this.

What should the NHS do when demand for their services outstrips their ability to meet it.

From what i have gathered from their posts on this issue is that they think restrictions should be lifted. They both seem to think that this will not result in demand outstripping supply in the NHS, but offer very little in the way of evidence or logic to back this assumption up.

If their assumptions on this prove to be wrong, are they willing to accept a situation where people who have covid and need urgent hospital treatment are denied that treatment. It's a simple question but one that never seems to get answered.

I have answered these questions several times. If you choose not to read the posts it's up to you, but I'm sick of repeating myself.

[baggy1]

Another Friday and another increase in numbers; 3,044 now in hospital in England compared to 1,995 a week ago and 368 of those on ventilators compared with 285 this time last week so basically 1.5 times increase in a week of those in hospital which was the same for the week before (23rd - 1,381) and the week before that (16th - 894). If we continue like that then we will have issues. On the same curve of the last 4 weeks that gives us 4.5k next week, 6.75k the week after and 10k by the end of the month.

This is where I don't envy any decision makers. The increases from what I read is in the University cities which gives a good indication where the problem lies. I can see the logic in closing pubs but wholesale seems a bit of a blanket approach. and as for closing restaurants as well - that doesn't make much sense, however the places I will visit are well looked after and apply the rules strictly, I imagine there are a number that don't follow that rule always.

We really have managed to fuck this up royally with have a test and trace system that is next to useless. Locking down late in the 1st place was an error that we can argue about til the cows come home but once that happened, to not have a recovery plan to install a tacking system is criminal.

Time to be careful folks - I know it's the last thing we need but it looks like we are going to have to go out less and minimise the life we wanted again.

I thought it worth quoting last weeks figures based on the fact that we are not far off those projected figures this week. The number of people in hospital in England as of yesterday is 4,379 which keeps us on the path to having 10k in hospital by the end of the month. We are definitely following the curve of 1.5x increase each week now for a 5 week period.

Numbers on ventilators are also up to 482, up 114 on last week (x1.3 increase)

This adds to the call for the circuit breaker as unfortunately there is nothing else that can be used. It is tragic that we are this far into the pandemic and only have one effective option left.