UK Covid death toll

[billybassett]

So you think it's OK for them to spread it and some poor fucker gets a bad one and ends up on a ventilor..... Its OK to say I'm all right Jack.

I'm saying, as hard as it is, that's going to happen anyway to some poor fucker - like it happens each year with flu. All you're actually doing is delaying the inevitable and at the same time killing non-covid patients and businesses along the way. The absolute worst of both worlds.

---

Also Liq: Remember the BLM rallies and Extinction Rebellion mass gatherings - bigger than merseyside? Can't remember if there was the same vitriol on here about those guys meeting in London? And guess what no spike in infections there....

---

Final one on this young people bollocks - I guess you're not bothered about the 1100 people who've been in the London Palladium all week either.

 I won't pretend I know the answers and admit I'm pretty much basing my ideas on a gut feeling. This is what I don't understand though, BillyB; To let the virus run it's course would overwhelm the NHS, the one thing Boris managed to avoid early summer. In turn this would exclude the non Covid patients as well, the potential cancer patients, heart attack, stroke victims. Are you saying that with little, no, or just basic measures, we could just let this virus take it's course and hospitals won't be rammed to capacity and beyond?  If so, I'm in.
My problem with that is that it looks like an easy answer for now,  and like anything that looks to good to be true...….Genuine question BTW.

Hospitals become busy in Winter full stop. In August flu and influenza killed circa 900 people with Covid claiming 328. I've not got September's figures yet but I'm sure they will be of similar order. The hospitals will fill up with people anyway. The point you make is will the service become overwhelmed because of the additional Covid intake? Maybe be it will for a while but we know now what treatment works best such that treatment time is reduced and more lives saved. But counter to that is that the flu intake is well down because covid makes the numbers up. Be aware that most probably there will be an increase in admissions over last year (as a total probably over the winter period - hospital admissions at this moment are lower than last year).

Plus as Proth says there are so many more people directly affected who won't see a hospital as to make this argument about capacity almost null and void.

I'm saying open stuff up, if we have to keep with the masks do so (although evidence is 50:50 on this) Keep ALL businesses open and enable them to have reasonable measures in place. Open football, cinema, theatres the lot with reasonable distancing measures for a period if that will satisfy the do-gooders. Let community immunity do it's thing and then we can look forward to Christmas and 2021 without this axe hanging over us.

But I don't expect this to happen I mean only today/yesterday our Minister for Mental Health said: "If herd immunity existed, measles and chicken pox would have been wiped out years ago. There is no such thing as herd immunity." And Hancock saying: "Many infectious diseases never reach herd immunity, like measles and malaria and Aids". I mean these people are running the country and after 7 months haven't acquired knowledge of how infectious diseases and immunity works. God help us and I'm an atheist.

[Borin' Baggie]

So you think it's OK for them to spread it and some poor fucker gets a bad one and ends up on a ventilor..... Its OK to say I'm all right Jack.

I'm saying, as hard as it is, that's going to happen anyway to some poor fucker - like it happens each year with flu. All you're actually doing is delaying the inevitable and at the same time killing non-covid patients and businesses along the way. The absolute worst of both worlds.

---

Also Liq: Remember the BLM rallies and Extinction Rebellion mass gatherings - bigger than merseyside? Can't remember if there was the same vitriol on here about those guys meeting in London? And guess what no spike in infections there....

---

Final one on this young people bollocks - I guess you're not bothered about the 1100 people who've been in the London Palladium all week either.

 I won't pretend I know the answers and admit I'm pretty much basing my ideas on a gut feeling. This is what I don't understand though, BillyB; To let the virus run it's course would overwhelm the NHS, the one thing Boris managed to avoid early summer. In turn this would exclude the non Covid patients as well, the potential cancer patients, heart attack, stroke victims. Are you saying that with little, no, or just basic measures, we could just let this virus take it's course and hospitals won't be rammed to capacity and beyond?  If so, I'm in.
My problem with that is that it looks like an easy answer for now,  and like anything that looks to good to be true...….Genuine question BTW.

Hospitals become busy in Winter full stop. In August flu and influenza killed circa 900 people with Covid claiming 328. I've not got September's figures yet but I'm sure they will be of similar order. The hospitals will fill up with people anyway. The point you make is will the service become overwhelmed because of the additional Covid intake? Maybe be it will for a while but we know now what treatment works best such that treatment time is reduced and more lives saved. But counter to that is that the flu intake is well down because covid makes the numbers up. Be aware that most probably there will be an increase in admissions over last year (as a total probably over the winter period - hospital admissions at this moment are lower than last year).

Plus as Proth says there are so many more people directly affected who won't see a hospital as to make this argument about capacity almost null and void.

I'm saying open stuff up, if we have to keep with the masks do so (although evidence is 50:50 on this) Keep ALL businesses open and enable them to have reasonable measures in place. Open football, cinema, theatres the lot with reasonable distancing measures for a period if that will satisfy the do-gooders. Let community immunity do it's thing and then we can look forward to Christmas and 2021 without this axe hanging over us.

But I don't expect this to happen I mean only today/yesterday our Minister for Mental Health said: "If herd immunity existed, measles and chicken pox would have been wiped out years ago. There is no such thing as herd immunity." And Hancock saying: "Many infectious diseases never reach herd immunity, like measles and malaria and Aids". I mean these people are running the country and after 7 months haven't acquired knowledge of how infectious diseases and immunity works. God help us and I'm an atheist.

Nadine Dorries is especially thick though.

[The liquidator]

So you think it's OK for them to spread it and some poor fucker gets a bad one and ends up on a ventilor..... Its OK to say I'm all right Jack.

I'm saying, as hard as it is, that's going to happen anyway to some poor fucker - like it happens each year with flu. All you're actually doing is delaying the inevitable and at the same time killing non-covid patients and businesses along the way. The absolute worst of both worlds.

---

Also Liq: Remember the BLM rallies and Extinction Rebellion mass gatherings - bigger than merseyside? Can't remember if there was the same vitriol on here about those guys meeting in London? And guess what no spike in infections there....

---

Final one on this young people bollocks - I guess you're not bothered about the 1100 people who've been in the London Palladium all week either.

It was a outrage

[Derek Hardballs]

Interesting stats from 2018 with regards to capacity within the NHS to cope just with an above average flu season. The problem with regards to capacity is not simply down to Covid it’s down to a lack of staff. Now I wonder why that is? It also puts into perspective why the NHS is having to be cautious with regards to capacity this year. Bear in mind NHS professionals have already said their staff are exhausted due to the pandemic response.

Capacity

---

Even if you think the deaths are a price worth paying, before they die they will require hospital treatment, unless of course you are suggesting 111 asks if they are in a risk group and just say tough  -  the more in hospital the less resource for other medical requirements.

The Nightingales turned away patients because to man them requires staff to be taken from other hospitals.

The whole point is that the NHS resources can only cope with a certain level of patients, so if you have more older or even younger at risk patients in hospital then that resource will be even less available for other medical requirements

The whole point is the NHS is doing little else but Covid which will result in many more wholly premature deaths of younger people in the future from late / undiagnosed conditions. It may sound stark, it may sound heartless but that is the opportunity cost we've arrived at due to the dumb decisions of the last 7 months

Wrong tense - was doing little else but Covid, and that was wrong, most 'covid' hospitals have now been split into covid and covid safe - in supposedly one of the worst hospitals in the country. I have had 2 consultant appointments, on time and admittedly by phone (although tests were arranged at  a covid safe hospital) and my scan was also on time.

However if we go back to the virus spreading in the way it was and hospital admissions rising as they are now, then staff will have to be taken away from general testing and duties again and have to care for those that are dying or in ICU long term.

Therein lies the catch - allow more normality - hospital admissions rise, staff are redeployed from their normal duties to care for ICU patients even if they are dying and less younger and at less risk patients for covid are again delayed.

If you want to protect younger patients and allow them to get their tests etc on time then you need to protect those at risk so they require less care even if they are dying.

And if you think that basically imprisoning sections of the population at risk i(the old, diabetic, overweight) is the answer, then I suspect that will be as successful as trying to keep others from partying, protesting, going to beach etc

The new norm where we are completely agreeing on something SM  Your points are spot on (tried to +1) your post but seems like I’m banned from doing so or it isn’t working). I have tried to explain this to those wanting to go back to normal (not sure that will ever work in a pandemic with a new virus) but alas it doesn’t show any critical thinking apparently. You can’t separate society into neat little boxes we are all interconnected and as a result solutions will have to tread a middle ground of suppressing the virus and trying to keep the economy / education operating.

Dear god. Once again it's not a new virus it's another strain of an existing Covid variant -see Mers-Cov Sars-cov, sars-cov2, HKU1, NL63. We live with the same viruses year in year out and we operate normally. Because of that our memory immunology T-cells have a 30% likelihood of triggering a response without us even knowing and we carry on having "had" Covid.

This happens to be slightly more lethal than a normal flu but in viral terms non-lethal. For 50 years we've coped well or badly depending on the year. This is no different.

For god's sake stop the scaremongering, live in the real world. If you want to make a point about the lack of staff in NHS hospitals that's fine but done conflate that with how to determine a response to a virus that comes round annually.

As for your point about "trying to keep others from partying, protesting, going to beach" again it's just a throwaway expression with null evidence. Zero spikes in Covid cases/admissions with large scale public gatherings. See Bournemouth in July and plenty of other cases. And actually that's exactly what they should be doing - and if you are vulnerable or ill then you don't go until you can. Simple. A bit like any time. In fact the local lockdowns have clearly shown that they don't stop the progression of covid. So the concept that it would work nationally is a complete joke. It just delays the inevitable and I say let's get through it now even if there are some hardships.

My mother-in-law was on oxygen for many years. Any infection in her lung would have finished her off. If any of us had a cold in the family we stayed away and she stayed in. Was she shortchanged - was she moaning that others should change their behaviours so she could go to hospital or go to the beach. No. It was managed and everyone won. And she got a number of extra years living that way.

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

[billybassett]

Interesting stats from 2018 with regards to capacity within the NHS to cope just with an above average flu season. The problem with regards to capacity is not simply down to Covid it’s down to a lack of staff. Now I wonder why that is? It also puts into perspective why the NHS is having to be cautious with regards to capacity this year. Bear in mind NHS professionals have already said their staff are exhausted due to the pandemic response.

Capacity

---

The whole point is the NHS is doing little else but Covid which will result in many more wholly premature deaths of younger people in the future from late / undiagnosed conditions. It may sound stark, it may sound heartless but that is the opportunity cost we've arrived at due to the dumb decisions of the last 7 months

Wrong tense - was doing little else but Covid, and that was wrong, most 'covid' hospitals have now been split into covid and covid safe - in supposedly one of the worst hospitals in the country. I have had 2 consultant appointments, on time and admittedly by phone (although tests were arranged at  a covid safe hospital) and my scan was also on time.

However if we go back to the virus spreading in the way it was and hospital admissions rising as they are now, then staff will have to be taken away from general testing and duties again and have to care for those that are dying or in ICU long term.

Therein lies the catch - allow more normality - hospital admissions rise, staff are redeployed from their normal duties to care for ICU patients even if they are dying and less younger and at less risk patients for covid are again delayed.

If you want to protect younger patients and allow them to get their tests etc on time then you need to protect those at risk so they require less care even if they are dying.

And if you think that basically imprisoning sections of the population at risk i(the old, diabetic, overweight) is the answer, then I suspect that will be as successful as trying to keep others from partying, protesting, going to beach etc

The new norm where we are completely agreeing on something SM  Your points are spot on (tried to +1) your post but seems like I’m banned from doing so or it isn’t working). I have tried to explain this to those wanting to go back to normal (not sure that will ever work in a pandemic with a new virus) but alas it doesn’t show any critical thinking apparently. You can’t separate society into neat little boxes we are all interconnected and as a result solutions will have to tread a middle ground of suppressing the virus and trying to keep the economy / education operating.

Dear god. Once again it's not a new virus it's another strain of an existing Covid variant -see Mers-Cov Sars-cov, sars-cov2, HKU1, NL63. We live with the same viruses year in year out and we operate normally. Because of that our memory immunology T-cells have a 30% likelihood of triggering a response without us even knowing and we carry on having "had" Covid.

This happens to be slightly more lethal than a normal flu but in viral terms non-lethal. For 50 years we've coped well or badly depending on the year. This is no different.

For god's sake stop the scaremongering, live in the real world. If you want to make a point about the lack of staff in NHS hospitals that's fine but done conflate that with how to determine a response to a virus that comes round annually.

As for your point about "trying to keep others from partying, protesting, going to beach" again it's just a throwaway expression with null evidence. Zero spikes in Covid cases/admissions with large scale public gatherings. See Bournemouth in July and plenty of other cases. And actually that's exactly what they should be doing - and if you are vulnerable or ill then you don't go until you can. Simple. A bit like any time. In fact the local lockdowns have clearly shown that they don't stop the progression of covid. So the concept that it would work nationally is a complete joke. It just delays the inevitable and I say let's get through it now even if there are some hardships.

My mother-in-law was on oxygen for many years. Any infection in her lung would have finished her off. If any of us had a cold in the family we stayed away and she stayed in. Was she shortchanged - was she moaning that others should change their behaviours so she could go to hospital or go to the beach. No. It was managed and everyone won. And she got a number of extra years living that way.

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I'm.the only one on here bar baggy1's updates that has actually tried to post scientific information about the virus and immunology. You won't listen to the science just the Ofcom handcuffed BBC or national media. I won't stop posting because what is going on now is an absolute tragedy. Not for covid sufferers but for the almost 62m other people who are having their health, business and livelihoods destroyed by politicians in the hands of a completely incompetent SAGE advisory group. It's not a conspiracy it's sheer incompetence, control and monetisation based - plus all the usual winter Q's about the NHS under strain can be explained away.

All I can do is help explain things from maybe a different view. I can't make you understand it. But it tells me a lot about you that you seem incapale of actually seeing what's going on. Like I say I won't stop promulgating what I know to be true and I can't bring everyone with me but hopefully sense will prevail and you will see sense later.

[Sliced]

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

[Derek Hardballs]

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

[billybassett]

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

Is that the sound of a dropping penny I hear?

[Derek Hardballs]

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

Is that the sound of a dropping penny I hear?

How many people died of Covid 19 compared to flu in the same time period? How many people are suffering from long term effects of flu compared to Covid 19? 

You still haven’t explained why governments across the world are plunging their economies into turmoil  and damaging their popularity (Brexit and Trumpian cultists are the exception obviously) for something less deadly than the flu?

You still haven’t explained how someone who has a family they live with and are vulnerable can be kept safe if other members of the family have to go to school and work etc?

It seems to me that we can all pick a scientist who shares our own opinion on the situation.

[Sliced]

The virus of course is a new strain of Covid so the semantics don’t really amount to much. This new strain  is more contagious and more damaging to health. The symptoms are more varied and in a number of cases leave patients with long term conditions. How many Long Flu clinics are there? How many people who have the flu are still suffering 6-7mths after contracting the virus? 

You accuse me of sensationalising numbers when all I’ve used is some of the most most accurate figures we currently have. You are constantly playing things down and alluding to some conspiracy. So what is the reason for the U.K., most of Europe etc are putting such measures in place? What are they not telling us?

I've stayed out of this discussion really as I work with COVID but I don't think this is correct DH. The jury is still out but evidence is that while it's more contagious, it will almost certainly be less severe. In general mutations reduce the severity of viruses. It's very rare that it happens the other way around.

Slice, just for clarification are you saying that Covid 19 is currently less dangerous than your average flu virus? I appreciate over time virus’s mutate and usually become less harmful over time but at this point?

No, maybe I read your post incorrectly. COVID 19 is more dangerous than Flu. I was saying it may be marginally less dangerous than it was a few months ago, but it's still considerably more lethal than flu.