UK Covid death toll

[Shabby Russian]

Hopefully the tide will turn to sanity at some point instead of the devastating hot air and bluster spouted as fact by Bojo and his pal Derek.

Don't hold your breath.

The only good that has come of this whole thing is that it's further exposed how useless and self serving polticians of all parties are.

The problem with  posts is i don't understand what it is you want to see happen.

On the face of it, it appears that you advocate a let the virus have free reign and bugger the consequences.

The trouble is i suspect when the consequences happen you will be running away from taking responsibility for them.

Fundamentally my disagreement with you is that not to take some action against the spread of covid, will lead to a situation where the NHS will be overwhelmed, and it will simply not have the necessary resources to meet the demand placed on it by the UK public. This will not just adversely affect covid patients, but all patients. 

My issue with BB and Proth on this, is that you don't seem concerned by this scenario at all.

Nobody wants to see rampant deaths obviously. It's an endemic virus though so it won't go away. So regardless of whether you want it to just plot it's course or lockdown it doesn't matter.. I for one would rather we not lockdown, scrap the PCR test that's so flawed as to not to be useable, stop conflating flu and covid, stop protecting the NHS at all costs (by the way 20000 more beds available in hospitals than this time last year), stop counting nosocomial covid and let all those people who can live their lives to do so.

I'm not sure how much clearer the failure of the current approach has to be before the penny drops.

– millions of cancer screens not done – the many asymptomatic but curable cancers detected every year through screening will now be missed until established and symptomatic and less curable.

– fewer GP referrals for suspected cancer – patients simply aren’t presenting with symptoms, they have been too successfully terrified.

– more people dying at home – patients with e.g. heart attacks, strokes, breathing problems, again too frightened to go to hospital.

– unemployment and poverty increasing.

– children missing out on their education and play.

– and all of us denied the activities we look forward to, to sustain us, e.g. parties, holidays, gatherings, friendship groups and anything that amounts to a normal life.

So in short your in favour of people who have a very pressing need for medical care from the NHS not getting it. The implication from your post is that you would rather not see the NHS deal with covid at any level . Just leave them at home and if they die well that's too sad.


Because the resources of the NHS are limited, if we let this rip, then doctors, not you, will be forced to choose between which patients they give urgent medical care to and which they don't 

And that won't be just a decision that is confined to covid patients . It may be they have to choose between the patient who can't breathe and the one that has just had a heart attack or the one that has sustained severe injuries in a RTA etc. 

We need to suppress the virus as much as is possible, so that those patients who need other forms of treatment whether it be cancer screening , organ transplants etc can still receive them. Something that won't be able to happen if all the NHS resources have to be diverted to dealing with very ill covid patients. But i forgot you don't think they should be treated at all.

[HomersBelly]

For better or for worse these figures can't be considered acurate. My mate's girlfirend wanted to get tested. She tried to book a test at her local test station but was told not to attend because they were out of test kits. 3 days later she had a notification that she was positive.

[Derek Hardballs]

Hopefully the tide will turn to sanity at some point instead of the devastating hot air and bluster spouted as fact by Bojo and his pal Derek.

Don't hold your breath.

The only good that has come of this whole thing is that it's further exposed how useless and self serving polticians of all parties are.

The problem with  posts is i don't understand what it is you want to see happen.

On the face of it, it appears that you advocate a let the virus have free reign and bugger the consequences.

The trouble is i suspect when the consequences happen you will be running away from taking responsibility for them.

Fundamentally my disagreement with you is that not to take some action against the spread of covid, will lead to a situation where the NHS will be overwhelmed, and it will simply not have the necessary resources to meet the demand placed on it by the UK public. This will not just adversely affect covid patients, but all patients. 

My issue with BB and Proth on this, is that you don't seem concerned by this scenario at all.

Nobody wants to see rampant deaths obviously. It's an endemic virus though so it won't go away. So regardless of whether you want it to just plot it's course or lockdown it doesn't matter.. I for one would rather we not lockdown, scrap the PCR test that's so flawed as to not to be useable, stop conflating flu and covid, stop protecting the NHS at all costs (by the way 20000 more beds available in hospitals than this time last year), stop counting nosocomial covid and let all those people who can live their lives to do so.

I'm not sure how much clearer the failure of the current approach has to be before the penny drops.

– millions of cancer screens not done – the many asymptomatic but curable cancers detected every year through screening will now be missed until established and symptomatic and less curable.

– fewer GP referrals for suspected cancer – patients simply aren’t presenting with symptoms, they have been too successfully terrified.

– more people dying at home – patients with e.g. heart attacks, strokes, breathing problems, again too frightened to go to hospital.

– unemployment and poverty increasing.

– children missing out on their education and play.

– and all of us denied the activities we look forward to, to sustain us, e.g. parties, holidays, gatherings, friendship groups and anything that amounts to a normal life.

So in short your in favour of people who have a very pressing need for medical care from the NHS not getting it. The implication from your post is that you would rather not see the NHS deal with covid at any level . Just leave them at home and if they die well that's too sad.


Because the resources of the NHS are limited, if we let this rip, then doctors, not you, will be forced to choose between which patients they give urgent medical care to and which they don't 

And that won't be just a decision that is confined to covid patients . It may be they have to choose between the patient who can't breathe and the one that has just had a heart attack or the one that has sustained severe injuries in a RTA etc. 

We need to suppress the virus as much as is possible, so that those patients who need other forms of treatment whether it be cancer screening , organ transplants etc can still receive them. Something that won't be able to happen if all the NHS resources have to be diverted to dealing with very ill covid patients. But i forgot you don't think they should be treated at all.

I’ve tried logic and joined up thinking it doesn’t work. 

I think some have this idea we have thousands of NHS staff who can be called upon to deal with an influx of Covid patients (a logical conclusion of to going back to normal) and at the same time treat Cancer and other serious illnesses. Presumably once the cancer and other seriously ill patients are out of hospital recovering or undertaking a course of treatment they are are just told to shield at home for a few months perhaps years because they’ve then become as inconvenient to everyone else’s freedoms as the old, already vulnerable and disabled. 

As you said we to try and suppress the spread of the virus because to not do so means you damage the economy and the health of the country. It should not be a a choice between treating non Covid patients and Covid patients. The problem is incompetence in implementation by the government and people ignoring the rules. That won’t be solved by everyone back to normal because it won’t be ahem normal!

[baggy1]

I think that it is clear how badly the government have managed the whole test and trace system so it is no surprise that there are issues with the accuracy of it all. They took a working system carried out by local teams, stopped it, handed it to the private sector, paid £12Bn, and then handed it back to the local teams.

In the meantime we are seeing extreme examples (which I am not expecting to happen here) of China testing a city of 9m in a week because they identified a few cases. We have New Zealand (another example that doesn't compare demographically with us) where they have it under control and lock down an area if a case emerges - that is whack a mole, not what we are doing.

Test and trace was the one point that we had to get fixed, we knew that at the start and had six months to sort it out and failed dramatically. That is bad enough, but when you add in the cost of it all then that becomes a scandal. As we go into the winter months it is appalling that we can't see a point in time where we will be out of this, or even close to it.

[Ted Maul]

If I had any faith in our Government to deliver a functional track and trace system, then I'd be all in favour of a 'circuit breaker' for a couple of weeks whilst it is rolled out. As it is we're stuck like this until at least next spring and frustrations will only grow as we see how other, more competently led countries deal with Covid.

[The liquidator]

Might as well say it some on here me included have had a go at the tories of following the science and not thinking for themselves....... With this 3 tier system they have ignored the science as they wanted a full lock down 3 weeks ago and have tried to keep the economy going....... You just can't please anyone and everyone.

Let's be honest whoever is in charge tories God forbid Labour we would be in the same hole you can't count for stupidity on some of our society..... The mass gatherings in paiment Square. BLM protest, going to crowded beaches and anti mask wearing and those environmental wankers..... There lies the real problem.

[baggy1]

Stop defending the indefensible LIQ - £12bn spent on fuck all is the problem. I've explained this to you - they had a working system, they stopped that to give their mates the money, and now they have handed it back to the ones they stopped. That is the problem, if we had enhanced what we had we would have been in a better position.

[JOK]

Might as well say it some on here me included have had a go at the tories of following the science and not thinking for themselves....... With this 3 tier system they have ignored the science as they wanted a full lock down 3 weeks ago and have tried to keep the economy going....... You just can't please anyone and everyone.

Let's be honest whoever is in charge tories God forbid Labour we would be in the same hole you can't account for stupidity of  some of our society..... The mass gatherings in paiment Square.  BLM protest, going to crowded beaches and anti mask wearing and those environmental wankers..... There lies the real problem.

Can't believe I'm doing this But:  +1

It doesn't matter how good the 'Track and Trace' system is if people give false details, refuse to answer the phone calls or ignore the instruction to isolate when advised, as they have.

[foreveralbion]

government as usual all over the shop yesterday and today.

they are close to losing control completely imo.

biggest elephant in the room for me though is schools and universities.

if all we are trying to do is suppress virus growth then surely these have to be shut?

if the government understandably wont shut them (political fallout will be immense) then im failing to see how just shutting small parts of the country will stop the virus spreading.

[baggy1]

Week 40 figures (week ended 2nd October so not as immediate as some of the news we are hearing) are out showing the weekly death figures for comparison.

These are again for England and Wales only and the weekly deaths figure is 9,945. Compared with 2019 there is an increase of about 150 (1.5%) and against the 5YA an increase of about 400 (4.1%), so again up but not dramatically compared with the year where we are at around 15% above the norm. These figures are pretty consistent with the last 4 weeks as well where they are up but only just (11/9: 3.1%, 18/9: 0.9%, 25/9: 1.2%, 2/10: 1.5% - all against 2019). Compared with earlier in the year the figures ranged from +13% to +148% between 27th March and 12th June, but it should be noted that the figures rose quickly from a very 'normal' base once they took hold.

Hospital admissions in England are higher than they have been but have stabilised around the 500 mark (figures only available up to the 10th Oct) with 515 on the 10th, and 544, 513, 491, 524, 472, and 478 on the 4th working backwards in dates for the week.

Patients in hospital is climbing steadily and on the 12th Oct in England there were 3,665, which was 2,593 on the 5th and 1,881 on the 29th Sept. We're still running at just below the 1.5x increase each week but the figures aren't rising as quickly as they did in March and April thankfully. 

Those on ventilators is still low in comparison with earlier in the year as well with 426 as at the 12th Oct compared with 331 on the 5th and 259 on the 29th Sept. 2nd April in England was 1,494 on ventilators and it was increasing by over 100 every day, we're currently increasing 100 a week.

All in all the figures are rising which as I have said before was expected with the flu season coming and students going back to university which was known and could have been contained very easily. I agree with the measures in general but feel that they are inconsistent when it comes to restaurants / bars, but will go with it in the view that this is what we should have done in March and hopefully works this time.

Keep safe folks and continue to do the right things with masks, washing hands and distance.

---

Might as well say it some on here me included have had a go at the tories of following the science and not thinking for themselves....... With this 3 tier system they have ignored the science as they wanted a full lock down 3 weeks ago and have tried to keep the economy going....... You just can't please anyone and everyone.

Let's be honest whoever is in charge tories God forbid Labour we would be in the same hole you can't account for stupidity of  some of our society..... The mass gatherings in paiment Square.  BLM protest, going to crowded beaches and anti mask wearing and those environmental wankers..... There lies the real problem.

Can't believe I'm doing this But:  +1

It doesn't matter how good the 'Track and Trace' system is if people give false details, refuse to answer the phone calls or ignore the instruction to isolate when advised, as they have.

The biggest problem with all of those examples was that they kept the virus circulating. As one off events they didn't result in rises in hospital admissions and ultimately deaths which gave the idiots the excuse to use those as examples of how the virus has gone and they could get on with their lives.

However you can't blame the individuals for a completely useless testing system that is open to abuse and delivered too late. We needed this in place months ago, as other countries did, but in the meantime spaffed £12bn on tory party donors when there was a working system that just needed enhancing. By the time anything close to being effective has arrived the population's patience has run out.