UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 894
23rd Sept - 1,381 (1.54 x previous week)
30th Sept - 1,995 (1.44 x pw)
7th Oct - 2,944 (1.47 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,156 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,018 (1.44 x pw)
28th Oct - 8,535 (1.42 x pw)
4th Nov - 10,344 (1.21 x pw)
11th Nov - 11,990 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 13,626 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 13,337 (0.98 x pw) 

Over the past few weeks I've been showing how the virus has grown by the numbers of people in hospital in England and also how it has flattened over the last couple of weeks. The figures for the last week show a slight reduction again with the figure now at 12,333 (0.92 x pw),

The 2nd lockdown started on the 5th November and at that point was flattening slightly and that figure took 3 weeks to stop increasing. If the pattern is followed that infections take a couple of weeks to start reflecting in hospital admissions that means that the number should fail a bit before the relaxing of measures starts to rise the number again. My concern is that after a couple of weeks we will be only down to 10k approx and if we start to see an increase on the same level as before lockdown that hospitalisation figure could begin to rise to the peak levels very quickly.

In theory it should be subdued by us staying in tiers but that in itself is in question and may be relaxed further.

This way of measuring shows that from the point of lockdown (5th Nov - 10,344) to the peak (23rd Nov - 13,767) there was an increase of a third in those in hospital. If we'd have locked down earlier this would have been more manageable, if it was when sage said in September the numbers could have been kept very low, if it had been in October when Starmer said then that number could have been kept below 7.5k, but it looks like we are going to struggle to keep that figure below 10k for winter now which is concerning IMO. 

Fingers crossed on this vaccine because it really is going to be needed (and for it to work effectively). Keep safe folks.