UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

I should have listened to Strawman - the figures that came up in the slides last night for hospitalisations were simply wrong and overstated. Looking at the update that came on late last night of hospitalisations they show the number was about 700 less than the slide showed. So I have updated the figures in my post above and it gives us a much rosier picture.

The figures show that the number of those in hospital appear to have stalled in England for 3 days, it is important to note that this is a net figure (i.e. those in hospital on day 1 plus those arriving on day 2 less those leaving on day 2) and that number has held at around 10.4k for 3 days now. We do have figures for those arriving in hospital which is relatively high (around 1.2k) but we don't know how they are leaving (either recovered or died). Using the death data (which I have tried to avoid because it's potentially subjective and gets updated weeks after in some cases) the figures are around 250 a day which means that around 1k people are leaving hospital as recovered each day - this appears to be good news.

Also with the reduced growth rate the prediction for numbers in hospital is also reduced and, using the increase rate as 1.2 now (this isn't what would normally be used because it isn't a trend, it's just one week) means that the peak of those in hospital will be roughly the same as in April.

I've updated my post above and for comparison of what it was Strawman has quoted the original post. Positive news.

Blimey - normally I'm the last person you should listen to - my kids stopped taking any notice of what I said long ago 

Well done with keeping the figures up to date B1 - nice and factual with no agenda

I know that feeling SM, my kids are a bit older now and need me for deposits for houses so I seem to have got back some of that influence for some reason 

It's like you say, if you put up too much info, or incorrect info, then it can all get called into question.

For what it's worth I still think that a circuit break was needed and if it was done earlier, either when Johnson had the original advice or when Starmer called him out, then I believe it wouldn't have needed to be for so long. And we would have been near the end of it now giving shops and hospitality the opportunity to make some money over Black Friday and in the run up to Christmas. Once we have got to Christmas, put another circuit break in when workers would be on leave generally and head into the new year with hopefully a test and trace system that can be deployed en masse to control where it is with local lockdowns.

I am concerned that they seem to be indicating a very extended period with the Furlough until March. They keep on making poor decisions and it is becoming more and more apparent. It is unsurprising to some of us how unfit Johnson (and in that case Trump) was to lead the country, this is taking the blinkers off for a lot of people. And maybe, just maybe those of us that were right about Johnson and Trump were right about Brexit as well, who knows, we'll find out soon enough.