UK Covid death toll

[Derek Hardballs]

I think it's reasonable to ask the question. And no, I don't believe it's just like the flu.  It would be interesting to see what deaths are ascribed to flu and whether it has been appearing on death certificates since the flu season began.

How about Proth tries to find the stats first rather than throw the question out to muddy the waters because he doesn’t like the current rules?

[baggy1]

I think it's reasonable to ask the question. And no, I don't believe it's just like the flu.  It would be interesting to see what deaths are ascribed to flu and whether it has been appearing on death certificates since the flu season began.

Flu figures will be included in the total death figures whatever they are, if they are there yet (flu tends to be worse in Jan / Feb), all I am showing you are the deaths that are occurring more than normal with excess deaths. Flu would be considered as normal as it occurs every year, excess deaths highlight any difference in a year, we have 1 very big difference this year.

Normally (using the 5YA) there would be 10,695 deaths in week 49 and there were 12,303 in 2020. Lets look at the worst case scenario; if I look at the last 10 years figures for that week the highest number of deaths are 11,223 in 2016, so the figure of 12,303 is just over 1k more than the worst year in the last 10 years. If we want to take every worst week from the last 10 years and use it as 1 year to date and then compare that with 2020 you will find that there are nearly 35k more deaths this year. Also that includes the 1st 12 weeks of the year which didn't show any covid results, if you take them out we are showing 53k more deaths in that 37 week period.

Also you have to take into account that Flu, like covid is transmitted through contact and proximity, and we have reduced that this year so in theory that will also reduce the number of flu deaths.

So it is a regular line from people who want to play down covid by saying it's the same as flu, or that we could be having a bad flu season. Everything points to that not being the case.

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My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

Sorry Proth , I answered on excess deaths. No i don't sorry but each of the hospitalisations are for those with confirmed covid patients. Now there has been some arguments that the tests are throwing out false positives which means we are highlighting flu hospitalisations as covid hospitalisations, but there are equally as many people arguing that they are reliable. 

Also as mentioned flu is transmitted via contact and proximity and we've reduced that greatly this year. Logic then dictates that Flu will be down based on that alone.

Like I say, make your own mind up.

[Protheroe]

My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

Yeah of course it’s no worse than the flu! Ffs

Dekka. I'm asking how many people have died from flu during the "flu season". It's a perfectly reasonable question - given that no-one appears to be dying of flu, but thousands from Covid 19.

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Also as mentioned flu is transmitted via contact and proximity and we've reduced that greatly this year. Logic then dictates that Flu will be down based on that alone.

Does that mean Covid is much more "catchable", than flu then?

[strawman]

My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

Yeah of course it’s no worse than the flu! Ffs

Dekka. I'm asking how many people have died from flu during the "flu season". It's a perfectly reasonable question - given that no-one appears to be dying of flu, but thousands from Covid 19.

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Also as mentioned flu is transmitted via contact and proximity and we've reduced that greatly this year. Logic then dictates that Flu will be down based on that alone.

Does that mean Covid is much more "catchable", than flu then?

"There are some key differences between flu and COVID-19. COVID-19 seems to spread more easily than flu and causes more serious illnesses in some people"

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm

There are people still dying from respiratory diseases which include flu (ICD-10 J00-J99)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa...ndandwales

[baggy1]

My conclusion is that it's Winter. Do you have any separate figures for flu hospitalisations / flu deaths B1? Genuinely interested.

Yeah of course it’s no worse than the flu! Ffs

Dekka. I'm asking how many people have died from flu during the "flu season". It's a perfectly reasonable question - given that no-one appears to be dying of flu, but thousands from Covid 19.

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Also as mentioned flu is transmitted via contact and proximity and we've reduced that greatly this year. Logic then dictates that Flu will be down based on that alone.

Does that mean Covid is much more "catchable", than flu then?

Yes (the simple answer is) as it doesn't appear to be affected by seasons in the same way that flu is. Are you asking out of innocence or trying to find holes in the theory, if it's the latter (which I suspect because there is plenty of information out there on this) you're wasting your time, covid is real and is more virulent than flu and causes more deaths ultimately. In any year we have just over 500k deaths in total in England and Wales, the reality of us having about 15% of that number on top from one disease is unheard of in modern times - when you also consider that we haven't had a winter with this yet then that is scary.

On your comment about the 'flu season' - this ranges from late October until February generally but is normally highest in Jan and Feb. As it spreads in the same way that Flu does it will probably be about the same during those months apart from one major factor, we have built up some immunity to flu over many years, covid is new and therefore has little inbuilt immunity yet.

[Protheroe]

Thank you.

[baggy1]

YW

I've looked at this from every angle Proth and I know the damage that is being done to the economy, and you are right that a fair bit of it is hindsight confirming gut feelings at the time - I was in Cape Verde when all this started and told my lad not to go to Cheltenham, but would I have had the balls to make a lockdown cal if I was running the country at the time, I don't know. My gut feeling was to lock down earlier the second time but my initial thought was that would be for two or three weeks, with hindsight that would have needed to be longer. The bottom line is that we've got into the worst of both worlds, more deaths / worse hit on economy than needed and that sits with the top table I'm afraid, and we've got to stumble on until next year like this because of the earlier decisions.

[Tom Joad]

Just to throw petrol onto the fire, we have just experienced a family bereavement. Long standing illness and definitely not Covid. (Regular tests confirm this). As the illness involved breathing difficulties plus some other complications, I was told by the Admin dept. they could simply put covid as cause of death, same symptoms etc. I pointed out, this was absolutely not to happen. The correct cause was eventually put down after much discussion between the hospital and G.P. This was the admin dept not the medical side and I got the impression it was simply convenient rather than any agenda, but it makes me wonder. I relayed way back upthread how the first patient to die of Coronavirus at Good Hope, actually died of something else but was tested (Positive)after death. Ultimately, excess deaths (plus Baggy1's hospitalisations), is the one to believe IMO.

[baggy1]

Sorry to hear that Tom and you don't surprise me with the comments from the people completing the death cert. This has been a concern from the start with the way that the govt shifted the calculation and use of stats, I think it was underplayed at the start and overplayed latterly. Frankly it's been a mess from start to now, and the lack of control over it has meant we are fighting amongst ourselves about the benefits and detriments of lockdowns, adding to more division in the country at a time we need to be working together.

[PeakBaggie]

Given the rate the virus is spreading surely we can put to bed any link with the flu, deaths or otherwise.

Boris and the bunglers have ensured that we now face another lockdown post Christmas, not sure anymore
where this heading with teachers and schools in chaos, the NHS about to pause and become the Covid Health 
Service yet again and trust in the leadership of the pandemic at rock bottom. That includes Starmer by the way
who is forever on the touchline dodging the ball whenever it comes his way.