General Election Allsorts
#1
Watching the polls to get an inkling of what the outcome might be, but with little clarity. So, here's a  prediction fred for you to play psephologist. No update on predictions (once made) and winner is the one who is least off overall on all six percentages combined.

General Election 2019/20

Conservative 34%
Labour         24%
Liberal          23%
Brexit            10%
Green             4%
Other              5%
That'll be enough to make the Tories the biggest party, but, with plenty of tactical voting perhaps not enough for a Tory majority. 

With every prediction, an option. i wonder how the election would work out with a different Labour leader (and is that possible)?
Reply
#2
Seats or % of vote?
Reply
#3
ArF!%
Reply
#4
Good game this...

Conservative 34% Seats 307
Labour 28% Seats 248
Liberal 16% Seats 22
Brexit 12% Seats 1
SNP 4% Seats 46
Plaid Cymru 1% Seats 6
Green 2% Seats 1
Other 3% Seats 18
Speaker 1

No overall majority. A short conversation between Boris and Arlene which ends badly; several days of inconclusive wrangling between Labour, The Lib Dems, The SNP, Plaid, Caroline Lucas and a handful of disgruntled former Tory centrists who have got themselves re-elected as independents. The mother of all stalemates; the hungest of hung parliaments; fog in channel, continent cut off...

As for the other bit, well I'm convinced that a pre-Iraq Blair, with policies and a shadow cabinet to match, would be looking at a 40-50 seat outright majority. Unfortunately that view isn't shared by those in control of the Labour Party.
Reply
#5
Labour 33%
Tories 29%
Brexit 14%
Libs 14%
Others 10%
Reply
#6
(10-23-2019, 06:56 PM)Sunshine Wrote: Labour 33%
Tories 29%
Brexit 14%
Libs 14%
Others 10%

Where’s that from?
Reply
#7
Tough one, 

Conservative 28%
Labour 28% 
Liberal 22% 
Brexit 12% 
SNP 4% 
Plaid Cymru 1% 
Green 2% 
Other 3%

I reckon a low turnout as well. Beaming shots of Boris and Nigel delivering Brexit for the people. Scotland goes Yellow.

If Labour had anyone like a leader that was centrist they'd romp it against these fucking morons.
Reply
#8
Turnout and vote distribution will surely matter. Progressive and remain votes--likely a small percentage majority--could go into three competing parties, whereas exiteers will concentrate in two, somewhat complementary ones. That would make tactical voting (stand aside, please) especially important for Labour, Lib Dems and Greens, unless Labour and Lib Dem voters see each others' relative failures as more important long term than the prize of a new government now.

Definitely think a new and credible Labour leader would upset the apple cart
Reply
#9
Kier Starmer would walk all over the current shower of shite ‘leaders’ and the ‘number ten insider’
Reply
#10
Yep, turnout, distribution and the vagaries of FPTP make elections difficult to call at the best of times. The Brexit Party might well poll into double figures, percentage-wise, and pick up next to no seats; it's happened to others in the past. Hopefully the resurgence of the Lib-Dems will be reflected in some gains for them.
Reply


Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)
{myadvertisements[zone_2]}