How much room is there for 'stable' Premier League clubs?
#1
Reading the thread about Morgan kicking off with Villa/Sheff/Derby I was thinking about the volume of clubs desperately attempting to clamour for what is basically about 5 or 6 vacancies. If you accept that Wolves, Everton, Watford, Leicester and Bournemouth are all pretty stable mid table clubs it basically means 9 sided spending every season trying to avoid 3 places. What staggers me most is that so many different individuals and groups with financial clout are so clearly happy to weigh up what needs throwing at it as a gamble worth taking. How have these people got so wealthy if they see that as a good decision?
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#2
Not sure I agree with this Heath....

There have been 49 different clubs play in the PL in the last 25 years, so there's always a chance you can make it there - even removing the elite 7-8 clubs that means almost half the entire top 4 divisions have had a season there... given 20-30 of those clubs will never make the PL, you stand a pretty good chance of being able to get there at least once.

Sheff Wed, Derby and Villa were all purchased at significantly less than a PL club is valued at, and if you can buy an asset for 30-40m in the knowledge you can make it one worth £200m with a guaranteed income of around £250m, it's a punt worth taking... especially as throwing £20-30m in the right way at it can pretty much ensure promotion eventually.

I'm really surprised there aren't more investment houses buying Championship clubs with the view to promoting them and selling them off for immediate profits... plus, if all does go wrong, the trickle down nature of PL money means that chances are you'll recoup your investment by selling the club on anyway.
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#3
Plus us, stoke, swansea and southampton could all have been seen as established and 3 went with one saved in the last week. There is a top six, everton who have never dropped and the rest. It doesnt take that much to drop as it is 3 from 13 every year
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#4
Money involved in the Premier League is mad. Buying a Championship club with a view to promotion only works if they do go up. Get stuck in the Championship due to an unlucky play off defeat etc, the investors want the money back.
As an aside, regarding Sky money, Premier League `brand` etc, we went on a holiday to Portugal a few years back. Some local youngsters were intrigued by my Baggies t-shirt, but said we aren`t very good, Man Utd, Chelsea etc are all that matters.Watched English football on Sky etc. Portugal has a football history up there with anyone, Benfica ,Porto etc are giants compared to the likes of Watford, Bournemouth etc, but can`t now compete. As a joke , I told the Portuguese kids that there is a little known fact about WBA, we are the best team in West Bromwich!
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#5
I checked the 3rd and 4th tier final tables from 91/92 (the season before the Premier League kicked in). My unscientific and slightly guessy calculation is that 15 of those 47 teams (which include Stoke and West Brom) have since played in the Premier League.

This probably adds nothing to the debate, but I thought I'd share anyway.
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#6
(04-16-2019, 11:08 AM)SW4Baggie Wrote: Not sure I agree with this Heath....

There have been 49 different clubs play in the PL in the last 25 years, so there's always a chance you can make it there - even removing the elite 7-8 clubs that means almost half the entire top 4 divisions have had a season there... given 20-30 of those clubs will never make the PL, you stand a pretty good chance of being able to get there at least once.

Sheff Wed, Derby and Villa were all purchased at significantly less than a PL club is valued at, and if you can buy an asset for 30-40m in the knowledge you can make it one worth £200m with a guaranteed income of around £250m, it's a punt worth taking... especially as throwing £20-30m in the right way at it can pretty much ensure promotion eventually.

I'm really surprised there aren't more investment houses buying Championship clubs with the view to promoting them and selling them off for immediate profits... plus, if all does go wrong, the trickle down nature of PL money means that chances are you'll recoup your investment by selling the club on anyway.

All good points but how many of those clubs you refer to have actually done as suggested - made a profit and then been moved along?

I can only think of Blackpool where that is what occurred. Most of them are in worse financial states for having been in the prem on a short term basis and most of the money just gets pissed out on wages and other fees.
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#7
(04-16-2019, 11:42 AM)HeathAyIt Wrote:
(04-16-2019, 11:08 AM)SW4Baggie Wrote: Not sure I agree with this Heath....

There have been 49 different clubs play in the PL in the last 25 years, so there's always a chance you can make it there - even removing the elite 7-8 clubs that means almost half the entire top 4 divisions have had a season there... given 20-30 of those clubs will never make the PL, you stand a pretty good chance of being able to get there at least once.

Sheff Wed, Derby and Villa were all purchased at significantly less than a PL club is valued at, and if you can buy an asset for 30-40m in the knowledge you can make it one worth £200m with a guaranteed income of around £250m, it's a punt worth taking... especially as throwing £20-30m in the right way at it can pretty much ensure promotion eventually.

I'm really surprised there aren't more investment houses buying Championship clubs with the view to promoting them and selling them off for immediate profits... plus, if all does go wrong, the trickle down nature of PL money means that chances are you'll recoup your investment by selling the club on anyway.

All good points but how many of those clubs you refer to have actually done as suggested - made a profit and then been moved along?

I can only think of Blackpool where that is what occurred. Most of them are in worse financial states for having been in the prem on a short term basis and most of the money just gets pissed out on wages and other fees.

I don't disagree with you that more people have lost money than made it investing in football clubs, but I'd argue the bulk of that has been lost when buying a PL side.

Watford's owners gave up their very lucrative energy business in Italy to focus on making money out of football, and would no doubt make a hefty profit should they sell Watford on (on top of the dividends they receive now), Brighton, Bournemouth, Palace, Burnley, Cardiff, Hudds owners all bought into them when in the Champ or below, and will almost certainly have doubled their initial investment should they look to sell, and Gold & Sullivan made £80m+ profit selling Blues on at the top of their game, and will no doubt trouser a fortune when they finally move on West Ham.

Even the less celebrated owners like Mike Ashley and Kenwright at Everton have made/will made a tidy profit...  and lets not forget the £150m Jeremy walked away with.

If you're canny, buy a club in the Championship and get them promoted and sell up, you can make a LOT of money quite quickly... But for a lot of people the gravitas and emotional connection of owning a club outweighs the obvious profiteering that can be done in a fast sale.
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#8
We finished 8th one year & appeared stable.....Villas drop also showed that stability outside outside the top 6 + everton(?) is non existent

Any team outside this is 1 bad season away from financial ruin
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#9
(04-16-2019, 11:08 AM)SW4Baggie Wrote: Not sure I agree with this Heath....

There have been 49 different clubs play in the PL in the last 25 years, so there's always a chance you can make it there - even removing the elite 7-8 clubs that means almost half the entire top 4 divisions have had a season there... given 20-30 of those clubs will never make the PL, you stand a pretty good chance of being able to get there at least once.

Sheff Wed, Derby and Villa were all purchased at significantly less than a PL club is valued at, and if you can buy an asset for 30-40m in the knowledge you can make it one worth £200m with a guaranteed income of around £250m, it's a punt worth taking... especially as throwing £20-30m in the right way at it can pretty much ensure promotion eventually.

I'm really surprised there aren't more investment houses buying Championship clubs with the view to promoting them and selling them off for immediate profits... plus, if all does go wrong, the trickle down nature of PL money means that chances are you'll recoup your investment by selling the club on anyway.

Good post mon, but on the PE/ VC side of things - there are far more lucrative/ less-risk sectors than football clubs.
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