French Election - Lump On

[Protheroe]

Punted £100 on Petit Napolean at 1.7 in October last year.

All the signs since point more positively in his direction. Current polling has Pecresse the Republican candidate in third behind Marie Le Pen.

On the assumption that Pecresse makes it through to the second round, polling has Macron to win in the run-off. If Le Pen makes in through to the second round then Macron is a shoo-in barring a political earthquake.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

As such Macron's odds of 1.43 look pretty generous.

[Sliced]

Trusting you on this one, don't let me down

[Protheroe]

Trusting you on this one, don't let me down

Hedge it with a few quid on Pecresse too.

[Protheroe]

Macron, is now a shoo-in. Still available at 1.12 - no one else will get close.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

[Shabby Russian]

Macron, is now a shoo-in. Still available at 1.12 - no one else will get close.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

What do you think will be the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on French domestic politics?

Saw an article yesterday suggesting Le
Pens cost relationship with Putin is already factored in and is unlikely to lose her support.

I find that hard to believe, but if true it's concerning.
Will the supporters of Putin's mini me in the USA be similarly unconcerned when it comes to the Republican primaries in 2024.

[Borin' Baggie]

Macron, is now a shoo-in. Still available at 1.12 - no one else will get close.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

What do you think will be the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on French domestic politics?

Saw an article yesterday suggesting Le
Pens cost relationship with Putin is already factored in and is unlikely to lose her support.

I find that hard to believe, but if true it's concerning.
Will the supporters of Putin's mini me in the USA be similarly unconcerned when it comes to the Republican primaries in 2024.

The procedure of the French election basically means that whoever Le Pen is facing in the second round will likely have votes coalesce around them. Le Pen's support base is 20% of the electorate, she'll not lose those as they're the hard right and far right nutjobs. Her issue is getting enough of the other 80%, and unless she's up against Mélenchon that's unlikely to happen as why would the left and centre support Le Pen? If she's up against Macron then the centre and centre right will surely vote with him, and the left still won't support Le Pen.

[Protheroe]

Macron, is now a shoo-in. Still available at 1.12 - no one else will get close.

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

What do you think will be the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on French domestic politics?

Saw an article yesterday suggesting Le
Pens cost relationship with Putin is already factored in and is unlikely to lose her support.

I find that hard to believe, but if true it's concerning.
Will the supporters of Putin's mini me in the USA be similarly unconcerned when it comes to the Republican primaries in 2024.

Ukraine is a gift for Macron. The French are less likely than ever to back the extremist in the run-off. As it is the first round is a three-way fight to be an unpopular distant second - Pecresse in particular has failed to make any breakthrough whatsoever.

[Protheroe]

Fighting the cost of living crisis on Lump On at a time.