Another Covid vaccine

[Fulham Fallout]

With shit statistical sampling 

The results based on the first 95 positive Covid cases from 30,000 people of which 15,000 given the vaccine.  And why did they draw the line there after such a small data set of positive cases? Well in doing so they achieved a slightly higher success rate than Pfizer (90%).  But 95 cases out of 30,000, that’s 0.317% of the sample size and far too small in my opinion. 

As I mentioned on another thread, they need to test those given the vaccine with the antibody test and keep testing for antibodies over time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902908

[Tom Joad]

Are you going to volunteer to test the Russian one?

[SausEggBaton]

Are you going to volunteer to test the Russian one?

I will if it is Vodka based only.

[Sliced]

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

[Baggie_Nick]

Are you going to volunteer to test the Russian one?

FF and his Polish hos will try Sputnik V to give it a decent sample testing.

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They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Flu vaccines are about 50%(?)

Even at this early stage with adjustments it has to be better than.that which, quite frankly, is good enough.

[SW4Baggie]

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Exactly this... I’m sure they’ll have some very clever people who have advanced modelled and predicted that worst case scenario they’ll still see 90% effectiveness... in the meantime their name is out there, they’re receiving speculative orders and hopefully as more and more data becomes available to them their success rate will continue to stay within a couple of percent of the initial test results. 

To put it in your terms FF... If you were in a room with 30,000 beautiful Polish ladies and out of the first 95 you spoke to, 90 of them said they’d be happy to spend the night with you, would you text your friend to say you were getting lucky?

[Baggie_Nick]

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Exactly this... I’m sure they’ll have some very clever people who have advanced modelled and predicted that worst case scenario they’ll still see 90% effectiveness... in the meantime their name is out there, they’re receiving speculative orders and hopefully as more and more data becomes available to them their success rate will continue to stay within a couple of percent of the initial test results. 

To put it in your terms FF... If you were in a room with 30,000 beautiful Polish ladies and out of the first 95 you spoke to, 90 of them said they’d be happy to spend the night with you, would you text your friend to say you were getting lucky?

I think the word 'rape' would be cried long before then! 

[Sliced]

Are you going to volunteer to test the Russian one?

FF and his Polish hos will try Sputnik V to give it a decent sample testing.

---

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Flu vaccines are about 50%(?)

Even at this early stage with adjustments it has to be better than.that which, quite frankly, is good enough.

The first part is right, however despite claims these vaccines haven't been shown to be 90% effective yet. The sample size is tiny to the point where the confidence intervals of efficacy will be absolutely massive. These vaccines could be less than 50% effective, which is the cut off point for the FDA in the US.

---

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Exactly this... I’m sure they’ll have some very clever people who have advanced modelled and predicted that worst case scenario they’ll still see 90% effectiveness... in the meantime their name is out there, they’re receiving speculative orders and hopefully as more and more data becomes available to them their success rate will continue to stay within a couple of percent of the initial test results. 

To put it in your terms FF... If you were in a room with 30,000 beautiful Polish ladies and out of the first 95 you spoke to, 90 of them said they’d be happy to spend the night with you, would you text your friend to say you were getting lucky?

They may have people looking at this currently, but their claims of 90% are purely based upon the percentages they currently have in the "early stage" data. There's no way from the results that it's a minimum of 90% at this point, but as I said it only needs to be 50% for approval.

[Fulham Fallout]

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Exactly this... I’m sure they’ll have some very clever people who have advanced modelled and predicted that worst case scenario they’ll still see 90% effectiveness... in the meantime their name is out there, they’re receiving speculative orders and hopefully as more and more data becomes available to them their success rate will continue to stay within a couple of percent of the initial test results. 

To put it in your terms FF... If you were in a room with 30,000 beautiful Polish ladies and out of the first 95 you spoke to, 90 of them said they’d be happy to spend the night with you, would you text your friend to say you were getting lucky?

I’d be happier if they 
1. Tested the 15,000 who were given the vaccine with the antibody test to see if they had an immunity 
2 injected all 30,000 with Covid and then see how many out of each 15,000 tested positive with Covid 
3. Give a further 15,000 vaccines to new individuals and give them the antibody test monthly to see if the antibody diminishes over time. 

Now those results would be far more meaningful.  I did wonder when my A level in stats would come in use

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Are you going to volunteer to test the Russian one?

I’d rather take my chances with Russian roulette

---

They haven't drawn the line there, the study is still ongoing, that's why they've said it's "early data".

I agree that it's way too early to claim that this shows the vaccine is 95% effective, but Moderna clearly wanted to strike while the iron was hot and put their name in the press as inevitably more and more companies will be coming out with vaccines in the future.

What both this study and the Pfizer study seem to suggest is that a vaccine can be found, which is exciting. Much more exciting than their claims of 90 or 95% efficacy, which should be taken with a pinch of salt.

95 is a very strange number to report on, why not 100? 
Anyhow, the UK have ordered 5 million of these vaccines so it’s bound to be ineffective.