Growth

[Protheroe]

What’s 4.5 x 1.6 then?

[baggy1]

Compounded?

Sadly just worked it out and Proth is right at 2%

[CarlosCorbewrong]

Compounded?

Sadly just worked it out and Proth is right at 2%

If that actually is true why hasn’t he mentioned it before, with Sources?

[baggy1]

Good point CC

Here’s the full quote: ‘“ The OBR forecasts the economy to grow by 1.0% in 2025, slower than expected in October. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.9% in 2026. The OBR has increased the growth forecast in 2026 and every year thereafter. Cumulative growth across the forecast period (Q4 2024 – Q1 2030) is now expected to be 9.4%, compared to 9.2% in the OBR’s October forecast. The level of GDP at the end of the forecast is 0.2% higher compared to the Budget last autumn ”

[Borin' Baggie]

They need to average between 1.81% and 1.82% growth annually to grow the economy by 9.4%

[baggy1]

The 9.4% figure is pre-trade agreements and tariffs by the way so it will have changed already

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They need to average between 1.81% and 1.82% growth annually to grow the economy by 9.4%

Is that over 5 years BB, that was my earlier error. It’s 4.5 years as the figure is up to Q1 2030

[Borin' Baggie]

The 9.4% figure is pre-trade agreements and tariffs by the way so it will have changed already

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They need to average between 1.81% and 1.82% growth annually to grow the economy by 9.4%

Is that over 5 years BB, that was my earlier error. It’s 4.5 years as the figure is up to Q1 2030

It's from Q4 2024 to Q4 2029. They would need to hit an averaged quarterly growth of 0.37% in Q2, Q3 and Q4 this year to be on track.

[baggy1]

Cheers, I was trying to calculate between sets on my phone. Do the recent trade announcements and tariffs make the projection better, same or worse?

[Borin' Baggie]

Better I would imagine but besides from the US one there is going to be very little in terms of immediate impact and the US one is tempered by their neuroticism. But I'm not an economist so that's essentially guesswork.

[Protheroe]

The OBR is guesswork too. Nothing changes the fact that for public spending to stand still without further borrowing or tax rises then Reeves needs 2%+

Let’s please also dispense with this narrative that I haven’t raised this before. It was a central plank of the IFS criticism of the job destroying Budget last Autumn.