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Key takeaways from John Curtice:
Labour hasn't done much better than last year, if at all.
A 4.5% swing may not yield an overall majority.
The Lib Dems have performed superbly, but are unlikely to follow it up at a GE.
The main reason for Labour's gains is not switchers from the Tories, but the collapse in turnout of Tory voters.
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In a group of around ten close friends of mine, three regularly vote Tory. Two will vote Labour at the GE and the other says he will abstain. None voted yesterday. Small sample of course, but the key swingers I know, will indeed swing
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It can be said with some certainty that the Conservatives have had a dreadful election, a real hammering.
Labour have had a good one, but not brilliant.
Lib dems again good.
Best performers are the Greens.
Looks to me like a hung parliament at the next election with Labour the largest party. Probably the best possible outcome.
I would be a bit concerned if I was a Labour strategist. Labour is apparently in the ascendancy, but can't get overall control of a stronghold like Sheffield...not good.
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05-05-2023, 05:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2023, 05:26 PM by CaptainFantastico.)
(05-05-2023, 05:15 PM)Shabby Russian Wrote: It can be said with some certainty that the Conservatives have had a dreadful election, a real hammering.
Labour have had a good one, but not brilliant.
Lib dems again good.
Best performers are the Greens.
Looks to me like a hung parliament at the next election with Labour the largest party. Probably the best possible outcome.
I would be a bit concerned if I was a Labour strategist. Labour is apparently in the ascendancy, but can't get overall control of a stronghold like Sheffield...not good.
The gulf between a typical Labour voter in the north and a typical labour voter in the south (in lazy, generalising terms) is far wider than you would find comparably for the other major parties. It’s a headache as well as a blessing and finding the answer to maximising tapping into these polar extremes is complex or maybe impossible
Incidentally - this is the biggest vote share lead Labour has managed since the landslide of 97. And they still won two elections after that
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This vote share lead barely translates into a majority.
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Indeed. But from an election where as I’ve mentioned above, many key swing voters haven’t turned out. 750 seats and counting lost for the Tories. Momentum not exactly with them, if you’ll excuse the pun
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I think people are forgetting that many people have voted tactically, essentially anyone but Tory. That won’t change before the next election because their brand is now so polarised and they’ve alienated millions of people with their pathetic culture wars but it’s all they have!
