UK Covid death toll

[Derek Hardballs]

If you sort that on cases absolute Proth, it shows the UK as 4th, if you sorts it on absolute deaths we are 7th

For a better measure I would be looking for excess death numbers - those listed there are only as good as the reporting in that particular country which can be hit and miss

Yes, quite. We're 4th when comparing apples with eggs and 7th when comparing apples with horses. It's all a bit too simplistic and lacking in caveats for me.

I bet it wouldn't be if your team and it is still your team had done well.

[richbaggie]

If you sort that on cases absolute Proth, it shows the UK as 4th, if you sorts it on absolute deaths we are 7th

For a better measure I would be looking for excess death numbers - those listed there are only as good as the reporting in that particular country which can be hit and miss

https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1...6VXBQ&s=19

Good thread on that here.

[baggy1]

Thanks for that Rich, in the background I have been collating that sort of data and have seen the points he has made as they appear. One of the points that may be inaccurate in there, and underplaying the figures, is the 'adjusted for population growth' figures (which I get btw, they are a reasonable measure). The problem comes from our assumption that there has been population growth and with brexit and the extra numbers of deaths there may be a case that population has fallen or at least stagnated - if so that will mean the adjustment underestimates the excess death numbers.

All in all it has been a shit couple of years and gets frustrating when it gets so binary, for example (not having a go chunk) but KKCs comment above about 'professor lockdown' indicating that lockdowns are a waste of time (probably not exactly what was being said btw) when they are a tool in the toolbox and were needed at the time as there were no alternatives (vaccines), and they definitely kept the illness and deaths down, but are now being painted as a waste of time.

[richbaggie]

I agree, lockdown was not a waste of time early on. It slowed down the spread and did buy us time.
Omicron has rendered partial lockdowns pretty useless. Light restrictions like plan B will have done little too. Said before, only full Chinese style lockdowns would work on Omicron given it's vastly superior ability to find a host.

[baggy1]

Not wanting to play it down but I know of loads more people that have had Omicron this time and virtually everyone has had mild (cold / flu like) symptoms. The only one recently that has had more is my S-I-L who got it well before Christmas (so might be delta) and is still struggling with getting her smell and taste back. My daughter has had it last week or so and lives with us and we did keep contact down to a minimum, eating and working in different rooms, but touch wood it hasn't been passed onto any of the other 3 in the house. My B-I-L has called this morning to say he has tested positive, probably from a get together on Friday night, and this will be the intersting one because he went for brunch with my M-I-L yesterday (not knowing he had been exposed) and she is the one we are protecting (it was her birthday). I got pinged yesterday from what I guess was the Cardiff game, but no symptoms.

[richbaggie]

A few of my friends have caught it for the 1st time over the last 2 or 3 weeks. Seems to escape previous defences but in the cases of my friends, no more than feeling a bit rough.

Made me think the other day, if Omnicron had been the original version, would we have been treated the same and labelled a pandemic?

[baggy1]

It's probably got a lot to do with the vaccine I reckon, but it's a good question. I suspect that this version would have caused as much damage without the vaccines but 2 years on we have built up immunity through spread and have got the added protection. 17k in hospital compared with 30k this time last year - I'd say the difference is the vaccine roll out.

[hudds]

Not wanting to play it down but I know of loads more people that have had Omicron this time and virtually everyone has had mild (cold / flu like) symptoms. The only one recently that has had more is my S-I-L who got it well before Christmas (so might be delta) and is still struggling with getting her smell and taste back. My daughter has had it last week or so and lives with us and we did keep contact down to a minimum, eating and working in different rooms, but touch wood it hasn't been passed onto any of the other 3 in the house. My B-I-L has called this morning to say he has tested positive, probably from a get together on Friday night, and this will be the intersting one because he went for brunch with my M-I-L yesterday (not knowing he had been exposed) and she is the one we are protecting (it was her birthday). I got pinged yesterday from what I guess was the Cardiff game, but no symptoms.

One thing - flu isn't "mild"; it is a killer.  Last time I had it, a long time ago (Christmas 1990), I was 31, fit as a fiddle and it knocked me out flat and in delirium and coughing blood when I came to between sleep or otherwise being "out of it".  After rising from my bed after 4-5 days, I was still weak as a kitten for another 3 or 4 days.  No wonder older folk are at risk.

[baggy1]

Good point well made hudds, plus it hospitalises a fair number itself each year. With the added pressure that covid will bring to the flu season we really need to be planning for winters with large numbers taking up hospital resources and accommodate that.

[Tom Joad]

It's probably got a lot to do with the vaccine I reckon, but it's a good question. I suspect that this version would have caused as much damage without the vaccines but 2 years on we have built up immunity through spread and have got the added protection. 17k in hospital compared with 30k this time last year - I'd say the difference is the vaccine roll out.

Yes. It is impossible to tell what has changed but we can only go with what we experience. All recent cases close to me are mild, that is across a number of age ranges. My extended family for example is quite large.  It includes 3 jabs and vulnerable, 3 jabs, 2 jabs, a female relative that had just one jab and suffered bad women's problems and the family new ager who hasn't had any but almost certainly had covid right at the start and before testing was available. Plus babies, toddlers and such.
I conclude one, or all, or some,  of the following; (!)  The vaccine has given us an immunity, exposure to the virus has given us some immunity, the virus has (currently) mutated to a milder form. Who knows?