UK Covid death toll

[Borin' Baggie]

It does seem to be so Proth.

As horrible as it sounds on the surface, there is some logic to trying to let it spread through the vaccinated population and therefore we may start to see the finish line. However it is not without risk, and of course, if we stumbled on the solution by accident, we can't give much credit to our leaders who only got their through dithering and weak leadership.

Of course all it needs to do is find pocket of unvaccinated people, mutate to a more dangerous strain and back to square 1 we go.

If it mutates again though, Birdy, isn't it likely to become even weaker?

Depends.

If it mutates in a human with intent to spread in human biological systems, it will likely become less severe.

If it mutates in an animal and targets their immune systems then it could well get worse if it's able to infect human populations after the mutation.

[baggiebuckster]

If that is true then SAGE will soon be demanding that we start vaccinating animals too

[baggy1]

Agree with all of that chaps and I'm cautiously optimistic on where we are heading. If you take London out of the figures then we have seen drops in hospital numbers in 6 of the last 8 weeks and of the two rises one was 2% and this weeks is at 5% with a couple of days to go. Hope I'm not speaking to early on this. We have to be realistic and expect that there will be hospitalisations with this at this time every year, in the same way that we have with other viruses.

And if things continue as they are I think it is a massive piece of evidence to show that the vaccines do their job. With London showing just over 60% double vaccinated (nearly 13% below any other region) and also being the only area with large increases in hospitalisation then I hope that sends a message to those thinking if the vaccine is worth it.

It will also be useful to hear about the numbers in hospital that aren't vaccinated to get some measure of the proportion in relation to the wider numbers of vaccinated / unvaccinated.

[Birdman1811]

It does seem to be so Proth.

As horrible as it sounds on the surface, there is some logic to trying to let it spread through the vaccinated population and therefore we may start to see the finish line. However it is not without risk, and of course, if we stumbled on the solution by accident, we can't give much credit to our leaders who only got their through dithering and weak leadership.

Of course all it needs to do is find pocket of unvaccinated people, mutate to a more dangerous strain and back to square 1 we go.

If it mutates again though, Birdy, isn't it likely to become even weaker?

Depends.

If it mutates in a human with intent to spread in human biological systems, it will likely become less severe.

If it mutates in an animal and targets their immune systems then it could well get worse if it's able to infect human populations after the mutation.

Good point. Thankfully the chances of it spreading to animal, amd back again is actually rare. Hopefully it is humans it mutates in,and then it's more likely to become less dangerous. However not a certainty.

[baggy1]

Final update before Christmas on the regional figures, with 7366 in hospital across England the largest grouping being in London with 2260 of those. Each of the regions has seen an increase this week apart from the South West. Single figure % increases for the North East (3%), South East (2%) and the Midlands (9%) with 11% for the East of England and 17% for the North West. London has seen the largest by far with 47% week on week. 

Compared with last week there are 1,045 more in hospital but when you take London out of those figures it comes down to 319. Not great to see any increase but it is expected at this time of year. The self imposed lockdown has probably had an impact on the figures but so far no increases to match London's last two weeks of 29% and 47%.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Final update before Christmas on the regional figures, with 7366 in hospital across England the largest grouping being in London with 2260 of those. Each of the regions has seen an increase this week apart from the South West. Single figure % increases for the North East (3%), South East (2%) and the Midlands (9%) with 11% for the East of England and 17% for the North West. London has seen the largest by far with 47% week on week. 

Compared with last week there are 1,045 more in hospital but when you take London out of those figures it comes down to 319. Not great to see any increase but it is expected at this time of year. The self imposed lockdown has probably had an impact on the figures but so far no increases to match London's last two weeks of 29% and 47%.

So London catches a cold and the rest of us get the flu - quite literally.

[baggy1]

Weekly update (a day early because I will be out tomorrow) is showing a massive increase in hospitalisations for the week (35% with a day to go) and especially over the last couple of days. Trying not to be alarmist here as it is only a couple of days data but the 27th and 28th have shown the highest daily % increase since the very early days back in March 2020. In England we've gone from 7,166 on Christmas day to 9,576 today, with the last 2 days of increases in those in hospital by an average of over 1k each day.

Regionally since last Friday there have been increases in every region with the South West seeing the least increase 16% and the rest seeing over 20 and 30%, the North West being the biggest seeing 38% (those are only 4 day increases and not a full week yet). It does look like everyone held out until after Christmas and are now seeking help. If the trend continues we will pass 10k tomorrow for the 1st time since March 2021.

Time to be careful folks.

[Derek Hardballs]

Weekly update (a day early because I will be out tomorrow) is showing a massive increase in hospitalisations for the week (35% with a day to go) and especially over the last couple of days. Trying not to be alarmist here as it is only a couple of days data but the 27th and 28th have shown the highest daily % increase since the very early days back in March 2020. In England we've gone from 7,166 on Christmas day to 9,576 today, with the last 2 days of increases in those in hospital by an average of over 1k each day.

Regionally since last Friday there have been increases in every region with the South West seeing the least increase 16% and the rest seeing over 20 and 30%, the North West being the biggest seeing 38% (those are only 4 day increases and not a full week yet). It does look like everyone held out until after Christmas and are now seeking help. If the trend continues we will pass 10k tomorrow for the 1st time since March 2021.

Time to be careful folks.

The data.doesn’t support this and neither does Hard Man Steve Baker so we shall plough on regardless. I imagine schools going back will only help this reduce these numbers.

Covid hospitalisations

[Kit Kat Chunky]

Weekly update (a day early because I will be out tomorrow) is showing a massive increase in hospitalisations for the week (35% with a day to go) and especially over the last couple of days. Trying not to be alarmist here as it is only a couple of days data but the 27th and 28th have shown the highest daily % increase since the very early days back in March 2020. In England we've gone from 7,166 on Christmas day to 9,576 today, with the last 2 days of increases in those in hospital by an average of over 1k each day.

Regionally since last Friday there have been increases in every region with the South West seeing the least increase 16% and the rest seeing over 20 and 30%, the North West being the biggest seeing 38% (those are only 4 day increases and not a full week yet). It does look like everyone held out until after Christmas and are now seeking help. If the trend continues we will pass 10k tomorrow for the 1st time since March 2021.

Time to be careful folks.

If I've read it right though, the number of people in hospital is only increasing by about 200 a day, and the rate of increase in the number of positive cases isn't running away. If London has plateaued, might this be the beginning of the end?

[baggy1]

It’s gone up 2k in the last 2 days KKC