UK Covid death toll

[Derek Hardballs]

Unfortunately the NHS doesn't put out the figures directly and seem to report them as a number per 100,000 rather than saying the simple things (of the 1500 in hospital, what age brackets do they fall into)

There will be a report out next week that will give more up to date data but as of the 1st week of June there were 700 admissions in that week of which 49 were under 18, so that equates to 7%. Unfortunately that doesn't separate out how many stayed in hospital and even if they were admitted for covid (or just had it but went in for a broken arm). The reporting on these items is really poor and would put to bed a lot of the misunderstandings or social media crap that is out there.

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A bit more information and again slightly out of date - on 22nd June the NHS is reporting 959 adult beds occupied with covid patients, it is also reporting that there were 1,301 in hospital with covid. All things being equal that means that of the 1,301 in hospital 342 in children's beds which equates to 26% which would support Dekka's statement.

Unfortunately it isn't clear how the numbers actually relate and as said above making simple calculations as I have done probably don't take into account many intricacies of the data itself. However it does show that some on here are very quick to jump and shout when someone says something that doesn't suit their view and can't be bothered to look into that stat. 

I'm not saying the stat is correct but it could be and as said we need much more clarity on the data to know for sure.

B1 thank you for this, I have deleted my original post simply because I cannot link to the interview I heard. As I said previously I hope that I either misheard, misunderstood or that the statistics given were incorrect from the person interviewed. I would not post anything that I felt was incorrect on this subject from both a societal point of view but also from a personal perspective. Thank you for taking the time to put this research together and you have highlighted that the data and how it is presented is not straight forward. Have a Rep Point for being a good egg.

[baggy1]

No problem Dekka, it does worry me when we get people jump on a statement and call it 'utter bullshit', absolute bullshit' and 'confirmed bollox' without supporting that view. Don't get me wrong, it might be utter bollox but if I was making that statement I would try and support that with some data / facts / statement rather than just shout it down.

This thread has been useful to try and just look at stats and try not to drive an agenda. I personally want all restrictions gone, I have paid for my ST because i'm looking forward to being in a crowd in August and I want to go on holiday, but all of that means fuck all at the moment if the trend of numbers in hospital continues to grow.

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We have gone through this conversation last year when we debated if the people in hospital with Covid figures relate to people actually being treated for Covid or include everyone who had a positive test irrespective of symptoms etc.

There is the potential for quite a big difference in the numbers if they are including everyone as a Covid case.

Absolutely agree bb, we really need a lot more clarity on the data especially at such a crucial point in time. The government say we can be treated like adults and want us to be responsible, if that's so give us the data and let us decide.

[JOK]

No problem Dekka, it does worry me when we get people jump on a statement and call it 'utter bullshit', absolute bullshit' and 'confirmed bollox' without supporting that view. Don't get me wrong, it might be utter bollox but if I was making that statement I would try and support that with some data / facts / statement rather than just shout it down.

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I certainly didn’t call the statement “Utter b***s**t” or “confirmed bo***x” and I didn’t shout it down, merely questioned the figure stated as it is contrary to verything we have been led to believe up to yet. I also did research (or try to) the official data. 

It worries you that people can ‘question’ a statement “without supporting that view” but are you happy with the original statement being made without supporting evidence or links to those who are being quoted?

Also, bear on mind I am not a Covid denier

[baggy1]

No problem Dekka, it does worry me when we get people jump on a statement and call it 'utter bullshit', absolute bullshit' and 'confirmed bollox' without supporting that view. Don't get me wrong, it might be utter bollox but if I was making that statement I would try and support that with some data / facts / statement rather than just shout it down.

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I certainly didn’t call the statement “Utter b***s**t” or “confirmed bo***x” and I didn’t shout it down, merely questioned the figure stated as it is contrary to verything we have been led to believe up to yet. I also did research (or try to) the official data. 

It worries you that people can ‘question’ a statement “without supporting that view” but are you happy with the original statement being made without supporting evidence or links to those who are being quoted?

Also, bear on mind I am not a Covid denier

Seriously JOK? I'm pretty certain I didn't say that you said any of those statements, why have you taken it as a dig at you? I'm going to break this to you so don't take it the wrong way - It's not all about you mate. 

Anyone can question a statement, but shutting it down with no supporting info is what makes social media so painful these days. Dekka made a statement and immediately 3 people called it bullshit and that was done most likely without looking into it at all (if they did then they didn't back up their views). And for info, I didn't think it was a likely scenario but as it turns out it could be - the stats I have looked at are all on the NHS website and gov.uk. 

I know of two lads (sons of some good friends and both under 18) that have contracted it, both very healthy (football and athletics to a good standard of competition) and they have both been knocked off their feet with it. I also added that we need better data to be certain of what is going on, we will have some next week when the monthly figures are released but it shouldn't be too hard for them to start putting the age ranges of those in hospital.

As much as none of want this, the data is pointing us in one direction and if we continue with views such as 'kids are alright, it doesn't impact on them so they don't need to worry' then we are blindly going in the wrong direction. The US is vaccinating kids for a reason, let's not be behind another curve by focussing on the facts we want to.

[Ted Maul]

Kids need vaccinating but that should have no bearing on reopening society.

With the majority of over 18s jabbed at least once, we should have sufficient leeway to start dishing out booster jabs to the old and crusty and safe vaccines to kids.

[Derek Hardballs]

Kids need vaccinating but that should have no bearing on reopening society.

With the majority of over 18s jabbed at least once, we should have sufficient leeway to start dishing out booster jabs to the old and crusty and safe vaccines to kids.

Who said it should do? 

There is however a small but significant group of young people and children that are very vulnerable to the virus who were / are on the shielding list who haven't had the vaccine because they are under 12yrs of age. They need and deserve just as much as any 'old crusty' the same chance of a normal life as everybody else. They don't have that luxury and are still having to isolate. I don't think you will find one person connected to those children that wants restrictions anymore than anyone else, other than to protect their children. Until their rights to a normalish life are addressed I will always defend their rights.

[baggy1]

I think that the decision to reopen on the 19th needs to be made with as much info as possible. If, by the 14th July, we have had another couple of weeks of 20% increase in hospitalisations then we need to think carefully, we also need some clear data of who is in hospital. If we have 20% a week increase for 5 weeks (which it will be on the 14th) then we need to understand that removing all restrictions will, most likely, increase infections and as we know hospitalisations follow that. The 20% increases will take us to over 3k in hospital by the end of July (allowing for the two week delay before the rate increases), then let's say it moves to 30% a week as restrictions are removed, that takes us to 10K by the end of August and 30k by the end of September.

Lets not ignore the lessons learned because we think we've cracked it with vaccines. And I hope all of those figures are wrong btw.

[Ted Maul]

I think that the decision to reopen on the 19th needs to be made with as much info as possible. If, by the 14th July, we have had another couple of weeks of 20% increase in hospitalisations then we need to think carefully, we also need some clear data of who is in hospital. If we have 20% a week increase for 5 weeks (which it will be on the 14th) then we need to understand that removing all restrictions will, most likely, increase infections and as we know hospitalisations follow that. The 20% increases will take us to over 3k in hospital by the end of July (allowing for the two week delay before the rate increases), then let's say it moves to 30% a week as restrictions are removed, that takes us to 10K by the end of August and 30k by the end of September.

Lets not ignore the lessons learned because we think we've cracked it with vaccines. And I hope all of those figures are wrong btw.

Vaccines work or they don't, we're on the verge of 2/3 adults being double vaccinated and by the time the end of August rolls round a good chunk of the 20-29 bracket will be double-jabbed too.

What will force their hand in July is knowing that there is going to be an exit wave, it's better to have it during summer than as we head into winter.

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Kids need vaccinating but that should have no bearing on reopening society.

With the majority of over 18s jabbed at least once, we should have sufficient leeway to start dishing out booster jabs to the old and crusty and safe vaccines to kids.

Who said it should do? 

There is however a small but significant group of young people and children that are very vulnerable to the virus who were / are on the shielding list who haven't had the vaccine because they are under 12yrs of age. They need and deserve just as much as any 'old crusty' the same chance of a normal life as everybody else. They don't have that luxury and are still having to isolate. I don't think you will find one person connected to those children that wants restrictions anymore than anyone else, other than to protect their children. Until their rights to a normalish life are addressed I will always defend their rights.

All fair points, begs the question why more consideration wasn't given to this group during the initial vaccine roll out? The US have been giving Pfizer to kids, why can't we?

From the comments Johnson and Whitty made on the 14th June, it very much seems that by the 19th they feel they'll have done everything they can to protect the vast majority of people. I find it pretty hard to argue with that as well.

[baggy1]

Problem you've got Ted is numbers - 85.2% of the population (todays 1st jab number) is 44.86M adults and that leaves 7.8M not had their 1st dose yet - that means we only have to have 0.6% of that unvaccinated group to hit 50k in hospital again. Vaccination doesn't appear to be giving us the herd immunity we thought it would, or we need to get more than we thought jabbed.

[Derek Hardballs]

I think that the decision to reopen on the 19th needs to be made with as much info as possible. If, by the 14th July, we have had another couple of weeks of 20% increase in hospitalisations then we need to think carefully, we also need some clear data of who is in hospital. If we have 20% a week increase for 5 weeks (which it will be on the 14th) then we need to understand that removing all restrictions will, most likely, increase infections and as we know hospitalisations follow that. The 20% increases will take us to over 3k in hospital by the end of July (allowing for the two week delay before the rate increases), then let's say it moves to 30% a week as restrictions are removed, that takes us to 10K by the end of August and 30k by the end of September.

Lets not ignore the lessons learned because we think we've cracked it with vaccines. And I hope all of those figures are wrong btw.

Vaccines work or they don't, we're on the verge of 2/3 adults being double vaccinated and by the time the end of August rolls round a good chunk of the 20-29 bracket will be double-jabbed too.

What will force their hand in July is knowing that there is going to be an exit wave, it's better to have it during summer than as we head into winter.

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Kids need vaccinating but that should have no bearing on reopening society.

With the majority of over 18s jabbed at least once, we should have sufficient leeway to start dishing out booster jabs to the old and crusty and safe vaccines to kids.

Who said it should do? 

There is however a small but significant group of young people and children that are very vulnerable to the virus who were / are on the shielding list who haven't had the vaccine because they are under 12yrs of age. They need and deserve just as much as any 'old crusty' the same chance of a normal life as everybody else. They don't have that luxury and are still having to isolate. I don't think you will find one person connected to those children that wants restrictions anymore than anyone else, other than to protect their children. Until their rights to a normalish life are addressed I will always defend their rights.

All fair points, begs the question why more consideration wasn't given to this group during the initial vaccine roll out? The US have been giving Pfizer to kids, why can't we?

From the comments Johnson and Whitty made on the 14th June, it very much seems that by the 19th they feel they'll have done everything they can to protect the vast majority of people. I find it pretty hard to argue with that as well.

They have done pretty much feck all for the protection of vulnerable children under 12 other than to say shield! Whitty at least in the speech where we delayed opening did acknowledged this group of people existed! Still who cares, it doesn't seem like anyone is fighting on their behalf and as you say why it wasn't made a priority like in the US is very much open to debate.