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Good stats again B1.
Interesting to see from some of the stats boffs on Twitter that hospitalisations are not increasing at the same rate that they did in the first or second waves. First signs vaccines definitely work and that cases are spreading amongst younger people. You'd have thought that an increase in hospitalisations is pretty locked in for the next week or ten days given the rate of cases. The last week or so the increases in case numbers has slowed a bit, so hopefully we see some levelling off in a fortnight or so time, especially as more jabs go in arms.
Think it goes to show the delay was probably the right idea, but as things stand there is still much to be optimistic about ahead of the 19th July.
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(06-17-2021, 10:06 AM)Ted Maul Wrote: Good stats again B1.
Interesting to see from some of the stats boffs on Twitter that hospitalisations are not increasing at the same rate that they did in the first or second waves. First signs vaccines definitely work and that cases are spreading amongst younger people. You'd have thought that an increase in hospitalisations is pretty locked in for the next week or ten days given the rate of cases. The last week or so the increases in case numbers has slowed a bit, so hopefully we see some levelling off in a fortnight or so time, especially as more jabs go in arms.
Think it goes to show the delay was probably the right idea, but as things stand there is still much to be optimistic about ahead of the 19th July.
Agree with all that Ted, it is encouraging that the case number appears to be slowing and as you say we should see the benefit in a couple of weeks. We will have to learn to live with covid but also as part of that we need to keep aware of these numbers to make slight adjustments when the numbers are low rather than making big changes when we have no choices left.
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06-23-2021, 04:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-23-2021, 04:03 PM by baggy1.)
(06-17-2021, 07:38 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1255 (1.19 x pw)
Another week and another increase of about 20%, having said that there are signs in there that it isn't the rampant increasing that we have had in the past waves. There are pockets within the week where it stabilises or decreases. Also the rate of increase gives us plenty of time to monitor and adjust, we reached the lowest number in hospital about a month ago and we haven't quite doubled that number in that month, which means that following a similar pattern we will have less than 3k in hospital by the end of July. A manageable number for the NHS and also a period where we have the luxury of monitoring the numbers and see if it is a trend or a blip.
Vaccinations are the key point that we need to keep getting rolled out with over 80% having had one jab and over 60% having had both. Seeing the uptake amongst the younger generation has been impressive and although we won't get 100% of under 30s steeping forward, I wouldn't be surprised to see 75% of them now. Two months ago I would have guessed at 50% uptake.
We do need to be careful as the numbers are going up in hospital and on ventilators but overall we have small numbers being reported for both and deaths appear to be zero. Not quite job done but definitely positive news and nearly at the end of the road for the UK. Also glad to see that the government / NHS are planning for booster jabs to be rolled out instead of sitting back and enjoying the accolades.
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Encouraging again despite the rise in numbers. The rate is slowing and in some places it has started to decrease. I think yesterday was the first day in about four weeks that the Zoe app recorded a decrease in cases, and they tend to precede the reported figures by a few days.
Signs looking good for 19th July, with over 60% of UK adults now fully vaccinated. A lot of the models predicting further delay to reopening having very little impact, they know there will be a small exit wave. Due to the efficacy of the vaccines it wont be anywhere near as bad as first thought and it would be far better to deal with whatever increase there is during summer months rather than into the autumn.
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So in ten days three years groups at a school I know have closed, one year has 28 cases that they know of. It seems schools are the Petri dish for further possible variants.
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It appears to be a big problem Dekka (obviously one that will abate during the school holidays), but they need to think of a solution before they go back in August and that might be vaccinating the kids as well as the adults. That in itself will need to be something that is understood better because it is one thing getting adults vaccinated with some reluctance, I'm pretty certain there will be much more caution and reluctance with kids.
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Looking at the latest numbers, I worry that the vax programme is running out of people? 2nd jabs has reduced following the reduction of 1st jabs 2 months ago, but I would have expected the number of 1st jabs to start increasing again.
I think the problem now will be convincing the unvaccinated to come forward.
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(06-29-2021, 07:00 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote: Looking at the latest numbers, I worry that the vax programme is running out of people? 2nd jabs has reduced following the reduction of 1st jabs 2 months ago, but I would have expected the number of 1st jabs to start increasing again.
I think the problem now will be convincing the unvaccinated to come forward.
Let them have the problem then we can only do what the majority have done and get jabbed
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(06-29-2021, 07:19 PM)keef Wrote: (06-29-2021, 07:00 PM)Kit Kat Chunky Wrote: Looking at the latest numbers, I worry that the vax programme is running out of people? 2nd jabs has reduced following the reduction of 1st jabs 2 months ago, but I would have expected the number of 1st jabs to start increasing again.
I think the problem now will be convincing the unvaccinated to come forward.
Let them have the problem then we can only do what the majority have done and get jabbed
That's my view, but I worry that the fear that the NHS will be overrun means the scientists will want to keep some form of lockdown, especially as we then approach the colder months.
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(06-23-2021, 04:03 PM)baggy1 Wrote: (06-17-2021, 07:38 AM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1500 (1.2 x pw)
Another week, another 20% increase in hospitalisations which isn't great but the news appears to be that the majority of those are people who haven't had the jab. And going on the numbers there are still 15% of the adult population that haven't had one jab which is still a large number of potential hospitalisations.
What we are seeing is a trend now that is much lower than it was in Autumn and Winter last year which is good, but unfortunately it is a trend and if it continues we will (obvs) start having capacity problems at hospitals. And lets not forget that we haven't fully removed all restrictions which in theory will increase spread and infection and therefore hospitalisations.
At the current 20% increase we won't get over 10k in hospital until mid September, but if the easing of all restrictions means that the rate goes up to 30% then that figure will be reached by mid August. The problem then is that the numbers start to move up a lot more quickly (1k to 10k is 3 months, 10k to 20k is 4 weeks etc). The big hope is that the vaccination program means that the numbers who will potentially end up in hospital is finite but unfortunately we don't know where that number will be.
As much as we can blame scientists for wanting some form of lockdown, I think with the figures continuing to head in one direction then it is actually common sense that dictates the restrictions. And as much as the government might open up everything, people will potentially take a view that it isn't worth the risk going to the pub, the football, the cinema etc.
I think the government will continue with restrictions being removed in the 19th July and watch what happens. They can't afford to let hospitalisations get up and above 10k but everything points to that is where we are heading.
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