UK Covid death toll

[keef]

Twitter is hotbed of morons full stop.

The road map set out by the government is pretty robust to be honest and so far we shouldn't see any delays to that, however it's important to watch the data.

looking back now to my thoughts over the last year and i looked at covid  at the start of the pandemic as to how we are going to beat this terrible disease .
now i have come  to the conclusion it will never go away entirely
we have to live with it just like many other respiratory diseases
but i agree the light at the end of the tunnel has never been brighter

[Derek Hardballs]

Again whilst everyone else celebrates the vaccine...

Seemingly forgotten

[JOK]

Again whilst everyone else celebrates the vaccine...

Seemingly forgotten

So, who do you hold responsible for that? And as a layperson what do you suggest?

[Birdman1811]

Again whilst everyone else celebrates the vaccine...

Seemingly forgotten

Your suggestion?

It's unethical to directly test on children, no way anyone is going to accept untested vaccinations on children, let alone vulnerable ones. Though the chances and science suggest it should be perfectly safe, there is no data to support it 

What do you want Derek? Because absolutely everything suggested isn't enough for you? I get it, it's frustrating at the moment for vulnerable children and their families, but we can't all stay locked up forever because now it's unfair for the rest of us to have a vaccine. 

Plus everyone having the vaccine helps build herd immunity which helps these cases too.

[JOK]

Obviously Dekka didn’t read or assimilate the whole article. Or, for some ulterior motive, (I can’t think what     ) the most vehement critic of anyone who may even mildly questions expert opinion, ignores the recommendation of fifteen of them and a lay person with an expertise in public health.

The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has advised that there is no data to support the use of the vaccine in younger children.
"(The) JCVI advise only older children (aged 12 and over {the child in the story is four}) at very high risk of exposure and serious outcomes, such as older children with severe neuro-disabilities and recurrent respiratory infections that require residential care, should be offered vaccination with either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the AstraZeneca vaccine." the spokesman said.

Membership of JCVI:
Professor Andrew Pollard, Chair (University of Oxford)
Professor Lim Wei Shen, Chair COVID-19 immunisation (Nottingham University Hospitals)
Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair (University of Oxford)
Dr Kevin Brown (Public Health England)
Dr Rebecca Cordery (Public Health England)
Dr Maggie Wearmouth (East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust)
Professor Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)
Alison Lawrence (lay member)
Professor Robert Read (Southampton General Hospital)
Professor Anthony Scott (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)
Professor Adam Finn (University of Bristol)
Dr Fiona van der Klis (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Netherlands)
Professor Maarten Postma (University of Groningen)
Professor Simon Kroll (Imperial College London)
Dr Martin Williams (University Hospitals Bristol)
Professor Jeremy Brown (University College London Hospitals)

[baggy1]

Some more good news filtering through. For the 1st week since the Autumn we have had a weekly death toll that is lower than the 5YA, we're not talking a large number (511) but it shows that we are back in  the normal range for deaths for the week ending 12th March in England and Wales. As the figures are a couple of weeks behind there are still a couple of weeks to collate before I can close this off but for the year since we started noticing excess deaths we have had just short of 113k more deaths than normal which is about 21% higher than the previous 5YA.

Other good news that we can see coming through is that even with schools being back for a couple of weeks we haven't seen any change in the rate of decrease in hospitalisations.

So far, so good.

[baggy1]

The BBC have put out a good article on some of the social media 'facts' that have appeared over the last year. Well worth a read (Billy / Woody especially if you are still looking in)


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/55949640

[baggy1]

And some more good news on the hospitalisation front, the numbers in hospital continue to drop at around the 25% a week rate. Figures as of today show just over 4k in hospital now and importantly since the kids have gone back to school the reduction in hospital numbers has continued at the same rate as before. At this rate by the time shops and pubs are open (outdoors) there will be less than 2k in hospital giving us plenty of time to react if something changes.

Also the 2nd doses are starting to ramp up with 2.5M having received both doses. It took under 2 and a half months from that number of 1st doses to having todays figure of 28.6M jabbed. If they can match that scale then we will have just less than half the population fully jabbed by the end of June.

Close the fucking borders now!


16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)

[baggy1]

Week 11 to the 19th March gives us another week of normal deaths in England and Wales for the time of year, slightly below the 5YA again by just short of 900 deaths. Next week will be the 12 month anniversary of the 1st week with a noticeable excess death figure and hopefully will be the last week I need to run a comparison.

Looking at the detail behind the figures by age group the number of deaths for all of the 5 year groupings over 75 are noticeably down on 2020, there could be a number of reasons for that including the vaccination and there are less available to die after the last 12 months but lets hope that we are heading back to normality after the vaccination. It is probably worth pointing out that we are still looking at figures that reflect the restrictions in place at that time but it does give us scope to head back to normal.

In the 52 weeks (2020 was a 53 week year so 1 to go) since the 1st excess death week there have been just short of 112k more deaths than the 5 year average. It does look like there will be a final death toll for that 12 month period of 650k compared to the 5YA of 538k and the worst year for deaths in the last 60 years of just short of 600k in 1976. This is a misleading comparison due to population sizes but it does give an indication of the problem covid has bought us, if you take into account population size estimates then this is the worst year % wise since 1996 and that may change because the indications are that the population figure for 2020 is overestimated which will make the picture worse unfortunately.

The big message from all of this weekly misery is that we cannot forget the last 12 months and think that we can just leap back into normality. We have to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the last 12 months and take slow steps to allow us to gauge any changes incrementally, and we also have to accept that as we learn and see unexpected outcomes we will have to react accordingly.

We also have to look at the way we work as a society and make sure that the resources are available to those that need them. One thing that is clear from this pandemic is that it impacts on the most vulnerable, the poorest and the elderly. We can also see how this impacts on those that have underlying conditions and we have to advance science to identify, through regular testing, those underlying conditions and encourage individuals to get healthier through education, diet and exercise. There are so many lessons to learn and it will be easy for us to slip back into 'normal' but as a country we need to heed these lessons to lessen the impact next time (hopefully a long way off).

[hudds]

Week 11 to the 19th March gives us another week of normal deaths in England and Wales for the time of year, slightly below the 5YA again by just short of 900 deaths. Next week will be the 12 month anniversary of the 1st week with a noticeable excess death figure and hopefully will be the last week I need to run a comparison.

Looking at the detail behind the figures by age group the number of deaths for all of the 5 year groupings over 75 are noticeably down on 2020, there could be a number of reasons for that including the vaccination and there are less available to die after the last 12 months but lets hope that we are heading back to normality after the vaccination. It is probably worth pointing out that we are still looking at figures that reflect the restrictions in place at that time but it does give us scope to head back to normal.

In the 52 weeks (2020 was a 53 week year so 1 to go) since the 1st excess death week there have been just short of 112k more deaths than the 5 year average. It does look like there will be a final death toll for that 12 month period of 650k compared to the 5YA of 538k and the worst year for deaths in the last 60 years of just short of 600k in 1976. This is a misleading comparison due to population sizes but it does give an indication of the problem covid has bought us, if you take into account population size estimates then this is the worst year % wise since 1996 and that may change because the indications are that the population figure for 2020 is overestimated which will make the picture worse unfortunately.

The big message from all of this weekly misery is that we cannot forget the last 12 months and think that we can just leap back into normality. We have to learn the lessons from the mistakes of the last 12 months and take slow steps to allow us to gauge any changes incrementally, and we also have to accept that as we learn and see unexpected outcomes we will have to react accordingly.

We also have to look at the way we work as a society and make sure that the resources are available to those that need them. One thing that is clear from this pandemic is that it impacts on the most vulnerable, the poorest and the elderly. We can also see how this impacts on those that have underlying conditions and we have to advance science to identify, through regular testing, those underlying conditions and encourage individuals to get healthier through education, diet and exercise. There are so many lessons to learn and it will be easy for us to slip back into 'normal' but as a country we need to heed these lessons to lessen the impact next time (hopefully a long way off).

It also impacts upon the fattest.  Empirically.  Overwhelmingly.  But is not stressed enough. So the message for the health of the nation is prevent gluttony for this specific reason as well as the other obvious, long-standing ones.