UK Covid death toll

[Baggie_Nick]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)

Some more good news on the hospitalisation figures from yesterday, a drop of 25% from the previous weeks figures which is a faster rate than it has been in any point of this wave. Also down below 10k in England for the 1st time since 1st November.

Also 20.7M now have had the 1st dose of the vaccine administered and just short of 900k having had the 2nd dose.

With the better weather and the relaxation coming next week we need to keep an eye on the figures but positive news so far.

And following on from last weeks 25% drop in the hospital numbers we have repeated that number again this week which means we have less than 7k in hospital in England now. As the schools have gone back this week the next couple of week's figures will be very important (not that it needs saying really). In comparison to the 1st wave where the reduction week on week was between 15 and 20% each week when the numbers were similar we appear to be treating patients quicker and more effectively this time.

Add to that the vaccinations figures of over 23M (more than a third of the population) and very importantly I'll be joining that number tomorrow of 1st doses dished out and 1.3M having had both doses things are looking good.

I'll believe there's a light at the end of the tunnel if in three week's time the hospitalisations and deaths are still on the downward turn.

[Derek Hardballs]

Let’s remind ourselves what was said this time last year...

1/. On 5 March 2020, the PM was asked why Britain hadn't locked down

He replied saying "one the theories is that we could #TakeItOnTheChin"

A year ago today - briefed by No.10 - @Peston revealed the govt strategy was to “allow the virus to pass through the entire population”. twitter.com/stefsimanowitz…

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[baggy1]

I'll believe there's a light at the end of the tunnel if in three week's time the hospitalisations and deaths are still on the downward turn.

I agree but also I think we need to be realistic and accept that the reductions may not continue at the same pace and even that they may level out, but with the numbers in hospital now manageable that will be ok. The big difference this time is the vaccine.

[strawman]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

[Derek Hardballs]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Thus time last year Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism of the decisions made last year were met by some as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

[strawman]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism from f this last year was met by posters as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

All of those are true and it's why I said the Government did a shit enough job without having to quote of context. All countries subscribe eventually to the herd immunity theory, that's why we vaccinate. But that's not what you meant - you still maintain that we were going to go ahead with just ignoring it, which we weren't, it was discussed within the NHS, put as an option and decided against as shown above.

[Fido]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Thus time last year Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism of the decisions made last year were met by some as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

Beep, beep, beep, beep

[Ossian]

I'll believe there's a light at the end of the tunnel if in three week's time the hospitalisations and deaths are still on the downward turn.

I agree but also I think we need to be realistic and accept that the reductions may not continue at the same pace and even that they may level out, but with the numbers in hospital now manageable that will be ok. The big difference this time is the vaccine.

With the combined and counter-balancing effects of education reopening and vaccination rollout, I'm thinking this might be the first time we see an uptick in the infection rate - simply as a consequence of the in-schools testing régime - which isn't followed by a proportionate rise in mortalities. It will be just about time for the Easter schools recess - conveniently two weeks - when we begin to see if that is turning out to be the case.

It's not a scientific analysis, more of a fingers crossed.

[Derek Hardballs]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Thus time last year Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism of the decisions made last year were met by some as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

Beep, beep, beep, beep

Chewing your dog toy again I see!

---

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism from f this last year was met by posters as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

All of those are true and it's why I said the Government did a shit enough job without having to quote of context. All countries subscribe eventually to the herd immunity theory, that's why we vaccinate. But that's not what you meant - you still maintain that we were going to go ahead with just ignoring it, which we weren't, it was discussed within the NHS, put as an option and decided against as shown above.

There was no vaccination at that point so proper herd immunity was not an option as several experts said at the time because we didn’t know how long protection would last. So what was the plan? Just to let as many people get it as long as it was manageable? By the time we locked down we lost control and it did exactly what the first part of Johnson’s statement said.

[JOK]

Ah Dekkas miserable news filter has found an out of context post  from twitter again. This Government has done a shit enough job without having to repost the moronic utterances of the twitteratee

https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnso...s-morning/


"one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do." 

And for what it's worth we eventually have to have 'herd immunity' - how that is achieved is another matter - it can be by letting a disease spread or by vaccination, so herd immunity would have been discussed

Well we were late to lock down 
We didn’t have all kit and we weren’t prepared 
We didn’t know if a vaccine would work 
Other countries did not subscribe to the herd immunity theory 

Thus time last year Cheltenham went ahead and the Premier League and the other leagues made their own decision to shut down. Any criticism of the decisions made last year were met by some as politicising the pandemic... now there’s good news it’s ok to politicise the success of the vaccine roll out.

Beep, beep, beep, beep

 

Ah but...    He “was just leaving it there”   

Or more like, hoping we will have forgotten that that statement was bogus.