UK Covid death toll

[Ted Maul]

1m every 3 days is impressive.

Gives me some slight hope I may be able to get married in September after all... I'm not sure I could deal with the Mrs if it gets canned.

[baggy1]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)

Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.

Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses. 
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.

So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.

And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.

It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.

[Malcolm Tucker]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)

Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.

Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses. 
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.

So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.

And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.

It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.

Shouldn’t the vaccine start having an effect on hospital numbers at some point before then? With the older population being prioritised - also the most likely to end up in hospital - we’d expect to see a fast drop than the first wave, wouldn’t we? 

Cheers again for doing the research B1.

[Borin' Baggie]

16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)

Following on from last weeks levelling out of those in hospital we have seen the 1st signs of the numbers dropping. This week has been pretty level with the drops occurring in the last couple of days, hopefully that will filter through to a larger % drop next week. We are a long way from even getting down to the numbers from the 1st wave but at least we are moving in the right direction. Taking a drop of 15% a week from now on we are on target to reach just over 10k in hospital by the 8th March which is the date they are talking about releasing some restrictions.

Also as of the 24th we have given the 1st dose of the vaccine to 6.64M people, this is the equivalent of everybody over 75 and nearly 30% of the over 70s (I appreciate it doesn't work like that), and there are nearly half a million who have had both doses. 
Edit: as of the 27th we have given the 1st dose to nearly 7.5M people which equate to the same as above and about half of the over 70s.

So, some positive news and I'll take it no matter what.

And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.

It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.

Shouldn’t the vaccine start having an effect on hospital numbers at some point before then? With the older population being prioritised - also the most likely to end up in hospital - we’d expect to see a fast drop than the first wave, wouldn’t we? 

Cheers again for doing the research B1.

The older and most vulnerable are less of an issue for hospitals as they tend to die a lot quicker so take up fewer beds. It's the slightly less vulnerable that are the problem as they hold up beds as they need treatment for longer. Once that group is ok then capacity will start to increase.

[baggy1]

Shouldn’t the vaccine start having an effect on hospital numbers at some point before then? With the older population being prioritised - also the most likely to end up in hospital - we’d expect to see a fast drop than the first wave, wouldn’t we? 

Cheers again for doing the research B1.

That's a good point Malc as the number going in should be less. The indicator will be if the reduction in hospital beds occupied number starts to go down by more than 15% a week.

In the 1st wave it was:
12th April 18974 (peak)
19th April 16928 (89% of previous week)
26th April 14174 (84%)
3rd May 12119 (86%)
10th May 9893 (82%)
17th May 8611 (87%)
24th May 7415 (86%)
31st May 5933 (80%)

As we've started with a very similar figure (86%) after the 1st full week of dropping, the impacts of vaccines should make that drop quicker in theory.

[baggy1]

Another week of shocking figures for England and Wales I'm afraid. For the week ended 29th Jan there were 18,448 deaths which compared to the 5YA figure of 12,760 shows a massive increase in deaths again. It's worth pointing out that these figures are a couple of weeks behind so we haven't seen the impact of the lockdown yet on these as they tend to start to fall a couple of weeks after hospitalisations peak (which was 19th Jan). The worst week 4 for deaths in the last decade was 13,935 in 2018 so this is over 30% higher than that which shows how bad this is. In 2021 so far we have had nearly 21k more deaths than the 5YA and 15k more than the worst 1st 4 weeks of the year (2015), these are truly shocking numbers and for some reason we, as a nation, appear to have become numb to the stats. So far in the covid period to date (45 weeks) we have had 101,227 more deaths in E&W than the norm which is around 530k per year and this is with restricted transmission and controls in place.

On a positive note we have passed the 12M 1st doses administered as of the 7th Feb so possibly pushing the 13M figure by the end of today which is the equivalent of everyone over 65 and a dent in the over 60s. 

Hopefully next weeks figures should begin to see a slow down in the number of excess deaths.

[Tom Joad]

Coming up to the 1st anniversary of when the virus really bit so there will be an idea of just how many excess deaths we have suffered. I agree we are becoming numb to the reality. The frustrations of lockdown plus the constant news bombardment has worn us all down. I'm pissed off with it hugely and constantly have remind myself to be grateful it hasn't hit me anywhere near as bad personally, as many have suffered. I'm also grateful in some ways that I'm not 17 to 25 anymore, they must be feeling frustrated with what has to seem like Groundhog Day.

[FenlandBoing]

Coming up to the 1st anniversary of when the virus really bit so there will be an idea of just how many excess deaths we have suffered. I agree we are becoming numb to the reality. The frustrations of lockdown plus the constant news bombardment has worn us all down. I'm pissed off with it hugely and constantly have remind myself to be grateful it hasn't hit me anywhere near as bad personally, as many have suffered. I'm also grateful in some ways that I'm not 17 to 25 anymore, they must be feeling frustrated with what has to  seem like Groundhog Day.

An old relative of mine likened it to WW2 - although she said this was worse than the war. She said at least you had your family around you then and could huddle together in the bomb shelters when everyone was really afraid of the worst days.

[richbaggie]

This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state.  I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.

Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.

Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.

[Kit Kat Chunky]

This lockdown has really started to bite now. Groundhog day existence, a stressful job with no escape valve is having major effect on my own mental state.  I'm lucky to have wife and daughter at home with me, God knows how friends I have who live at home alone are getting through this. Not seeing my granddaughter is a particular killer for me.

Thankfully, if you ignore the news but look purely at the data, we are moving steadily towards better days. I say ignore the news because they seem to continue to wallow in the negatives. An example being how they report the daily figures, comparing to day before rather than the more important 7 day comparison.

Feels like we are moving towards some minor lifting of restrictions in March with April seeing more lifted and maybe pubs by May. I can cope with that. Lockdown for anytime beyond that and people will start to not comply in huge numbers.

Not only that Rich, but seasonality will mean that numbers are low. If you tell everyone to stay at home, when you have infections of less than 1000, then you can see a mass revolt. We didn't have riots last summer, but if lockdown isn't lifted then you can see a great undercurrent of discontent (not that I would condone public unrest).