UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Have we even lockdown properly? When the arguments on here were raging about going back to normal I was wondering if I was living in the same country.

Before the poop has hit the fan again we allowed;

most shops to be open 
pubs to be open through the summer 
schools open since September with no testing  
Uni’s open 
Colleges open 

I completely understand the damage lockdowns do to the lives of people but because we seem reluctant to really lockdown down say for a month or two at critical times we seem to have fudged our approach and it’s left us with one of the worst hit economies in the Western world and one of the highest death rates in the world.

Basicly all that's happened is the schools have shut, makes me laugh when he says must stay at home only go to work if can't work from home well fugg me only a very small percentage of the workforce can work from home the rest of us still  have to travel to work there by potentially spreading the virus, sorry but until they curb the mass  movement of the populace the infection rate will not drop significantly should have been a lockdown like the summer or maybe harsher.

It's impossible for me to WFH, and I'm classed as an essential worker so I'll still be travelling, but I get your point. I'll be interested to see how many people are on the road tomorrow.

Yep I'm a key worker too I travel from wednesbury to Coventry eveyday to work and the traffic isn't far off pre covid levels most days along the M6 and A45.

Its a tough decision to tell companies to shut down. People's livelihood is at risk. Which is something that could have a far longer impact than what covid could.

The problem is that we haven't managed the spread as it has gone on and waiting until the hospitals are full have meant we will be locked down for longer. 

Until we have a vaccine in place we need to keep the numbers down as best we can and that will involve stopping transmission somehow, test and trace has failed massively which only leaves lockdown. If we'd have locked down in Sept / Oct the the rise started happening then we would have had two benefits - we would have kept the numbers lower therefore less people to spread it around leading to a lower long term figure, and secondly we might have been able to stop this new variant before it got going.

The government have failed massively because they got stuck between the scientists asking for a lockdown / firebreak (call it what you will) and the libertarians saying lockdowns are an affront to their freedoms, so they tried to go half way and failed on both counts. They needed to choose a side early and stick with it and the consequences. A lockdown in Oct could have kept the numbers in hospital down to 10k, we now need to lockdown for 6-8 weeks just to get back to 10k as we go into the worst period for deaths each year.

[tiptontown]

Although I understand your point of view B1, if you're a person with a young family and a mortgage to pay you're going to be more worried about paying the mortgage than covid and for all the good intentions of the furlough scheme it hasn't stopped a lot of people being made redundant. It remains to be seen how many companies don't survive this pandemic and there is already a lot of hardship out there and more to come no doubt.

[baggy1]

I agree entirely TT and this should have been something that was managed better by the government from the start. There was never a long term plan in place, comments like 'this will be over by the summer / christmas', etc showed that. My BIL was made redundant the week before they announced they were extending furlough, it is because of the delayed knee jerk reactions that we are here today and he is still looking for a job.

There should have been a range of measures of which they have got some right, furlough, Self employment grants based on previous years profits etc, but they stopped there and didn't consider those in the gaps and provided wider support.

[baggiebuckster]

Although I understand your point of view B1, if you're a person with a young family and a mortgage to pay you're going to be more worried about paying the mortgage than covid and for all the good intentions of the furlough scheme it hasn't stopped a lot of people being made redundant. It remains to be seen how many companies don't survive this pandemic and there is already a lot of hardship out there and more to come no doubt.

In a nutshell

[baggy1]

As we learn more about Covid there are more myths debunked. There is a claim that I see a lot about a survival rate of 99.97%, if you use social media there is a good chance you have seen this. The Imperial College London have now issued a report that shows for those that get the infection and a country such as the UK there is a 1.15% death rate. This might seem small but as we have 67M people in the UK that equates to about 770k people if we went for herd immunity. In an average year we have about 550k people die (this is for E&W) so you can see how big this number is relatively. 


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/c...tio-about/

[backsidebaggie]

As we learn more about Covid there are more myths debunked. There is a claim that I see a lot about a survival rate of 99.97%, if you use social media there is a good chance you have seen this. The Imperial College London have now issued a report that shows for those that get the infection and a country such as the UK there is a 1.15% death rate. This might seem small but as we have 67M people in the UK that equates to about 770k people if we went for herd immunity. In an average year we have about 550k people die (this is for E&W) so you can see how big this number is relatively. 


https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/c...tio-about/

To be fair, the 99.97 ish figures are typically given by people for the middle age and under, not overall death rate for the whole population.

[baggy1]

The 99.97% figure is for those under 25, it depends where you start middle age I guess.

And just put the IFR figures into the relevant population groups and it estimates that if we just let it run (herd immunity) it would result in 614k deaths because of covid. The IFR rates were as at the end of October so I am not certain if the new strain changes that.

               POP                 IFR      Total
0 to 4       3,860,000         0 - 
5 to 9       4,350,000         0.01       435
10 to 14    3,950,000        0.01       395
15 to 19    3,660,000        0.02       732
20 to 24    4,150,000        0.03    1,245
25 to 29    4,510,000        0.04    1,804
30 to 34    4,500,000        0.06    2,700
35 to 39    4,400,000        0.1      4,400
40 to 44    4,020,000        0.16    6,432
45 to 49    4,400,000        0.24   10,560
50 to 54    4,660,000        0.38   17,708
55 to 59    4,410,000        0.6     26,460
60 to 64    3,760,000        0.94   35,344
65 to 69    3,370,000        1.47   49,539
70 to 74    3,320,000        2.31   76,692
75 to 79    2,330,000        3.61   84,113
80 to 84    1,720,000        5.66   97,352
85 to 89    1,040,000        8.86   92,144
90+             610,000       17.37 105,957

                                              614,012

[baggy1]

Week 52 (to 25th Dec) figures are out and again there is a big excess death, however I will point out that over the Christmas period the numbers normally drop due to holidays but this year is probably getting more focus on recording figures. Deaths registered for the week are 11,520 which is down 1.5k from week 51 but again this could be because of days worked recording the figures. Against the 5YA the death count is up by over 3.5k (ave 7954 vs 2020 11,520). This means that against the annual figures 2020 has seen an excess against the 5YA in E&W of 72,916, and because 2020 is the year that keeps giving we have a week 53 to add to that.

The true figure will come when we have a 12 month period with covid which will be at about week 12 2021, but so far for the 40 weeks with covid we are showing an excess death count of 77,738.

[baggy1]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)

Another horrible week for hospitalisations with 5k more being admitted in England, however it shows that the % increase is about the same. The big problem we will have is the number, we locked down on March 23rd with 3,183 in hospital and it peaked on the 12th April with 18,974 and it took until the 14th July to get down to 1,500 patients. lockdown measures ended on the 1st June.

So expect the numbers rising to go on until three weeks after 4th Jan (25th) and then it start declining. By the 25th Jan, at the current rates, we could be over 45k in hospital and we are looking at restrictions for at least 3 months after that to get back to normal (I hope that calculation is wrong btw).

This is where my frustration kicks in, during September Sage advised a lockdown was needed but Boris bottled it because of all the nay sayers in his party. I hope each and every one of those that said 'lockdowns are damaging' and 'we have this every year' are now thinking again. Lockdowns are damaging, there is no doubt about that, but delaying them against something like covid means they go on for longer and cause more damage. I really hope this puts that to bed.

Stay safe folks.

[Birdman1811]

Taking the figures and updating them with this weeks figures from the govt slides today
16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)

Another horrible week for hospitalisations with 5k more being admitted in England, however it shows that the % increase is about the same. The big problem we will have is the number, we locked down on March 23rd with 3,183 in hospital and it peaked on the 12th April with 18,974 and it took until the 14th July to get down to 1,500 patients. lockdown measures ended on the 1st June.

So expect the numbers rising to go on until three weeks after 4th Jan (25th) and then it start declining. By the 25th Jan, at the current rates, we could be over 45k in hospital and we are looking at restrictions for at least 3 months after that to get back to normal (I hope that calculation is wrong btw).

This is where my frustration kicks in, during September Sage advised a lockdown was needed but Boris bottled it because of all the nay sayers in his party. I hope each and every one of those that said 'lockdowns are damaging' and 'we have this every year' are now thinking again. Lockdowns are damaging, there is no doubt about that, but delaying them against something like covid means they go on for longer and cause more damage. I really hope this puts that to bed.

Stay safe folks.

Yep.

We delayed, and delayed, half assed it all, then complained things are bad.