UK Covid death toll

[Protheroe]

but you still keep on wingeing about letting people do what they want

That's a fine misrepresentation.

[baggy1]

but you still keep on wingeing about letting people do what they want

That's a fine misrepresentation.

Coming from the master I take that as a compliment 

We are at a point now where there is clear evidence that locking down earlier both times would have saved lives and businesses. We have a group in charge that have dithered and delayed because of the backbench (and frontbench by the sounds of it) overruling of the scientific evidence. Even to the point where there are people trying to justify their theories based on any scrap of noise (estimated case data was the one you highlighted), and it stinks - any form of contact, in the office, in the pub, in the street needs to be minimised as much as possible until we have the vaccine rolled out. Businesses have and will take a hit but a lot will recover (try to avoid misrepresenting me on this point again), I think the way that the govt have handled a good idea (furlough) badly just is another example of how shit they really are. 

The times article is a good summation - what are your views on it?

[PeakBaggie]

Sadly Boris and his team decided early on to manage the fallout from the pandemic rather than the virus
itself. Always a little too late and always promises that were going to fail. Building field hospitals that we
would never be able to staff, RAF planes sitting on the tarmac waiting for supplies that were both over
priced and out of specifcation. All images to make it seem like they were on top of the task.
Boris rolled out the one liners, game changer, moon shot, whack a mole while the elderly were rolled out
of ill equipped hospitals to be in even poorer equipped care homes. 
Christ knows how much money has been lost to fraud as money was thrown at schemes to support the
12 week lockdown resulting from the late action. Money that could and should have been used to support
and encourage those needing to isolate.

We cant blame the government for the pandemic, but even having got past the first wave they have somehow
managed the entire second wave with the same level of confused policies that has resulted in far too many
of the public having no trust in what they say. The third wave and lockdown when it comes in January
will be no different, by that time they may be fighting each other in the Tory party rather than the virus.

[Protheroe]

but you still keep on wingeing about letting people do what they want

That's a fine misrepresentation.

Coming from the master I take that as a compliment 

We are at a point now where there is clear evidence that locking down earlier both times would have saved lives and businesses. We have a group in charge that have dithered and delayed because of the backbench (and frontbench by the sounds of it) overruling of the scientific evidence. Even to the point where there are people trying to justify their theories based on any scrap of noise (estimated case data was the one you highlighted), and it stinks - any form of contact, in the office, in the pub, in the street needs to be minimised as much as possible until we have the vaccine rolled out. Businesses have and will take a hit but a lot will recover (try to avoid misrepresenting me on this point again), I think the way that the govt have handled a good idea (furlough) badly just is another example of how shit they really are. 

The times article is a good summation - what are your views on it?

My view on the article when I read it yesterday was that it was another prissy view from those who have no actual responsibility for running the country - and would never receive any mainstream criticism for adopting an overly cautious approach.

The reality of the situation is, of course far more complex. Dithering? Unfortunately Covid 19 is not a zero sum game. All of these decisions can only ever be political decisions and I suspect the Johnson administration will (deservedly) die by the economic and social (not the health) consequences of short term and often knee jerk decisions.

I'm lucky, I'm *only* 40% down on turnover this year. There are many in a far far worse position. Particularly those who'll be affected by the 27,000 pending residential evictions (and their landlords). People like my last surviving uncle living in the middle of nowhere (yet still in Tier 3) who's hardly had any human contact since March - and I'll certainly be breaking the letter of the law to take a huge food parcel over to him later this week.

Now that London has gone into effective lockdown this afternoon I suspect we can expect to be under restrictions again until the end of February. Given that you're normally so negative about the prospects for business in Brexit Britain, frankly I'm amazed that you're so sanguine. This isn't final push, it's going to be the final pushover for many lives, livelihoods and businesses.

[Bromley Baggie 2]

News that hasn't really been mentioned it that over 1000 new cases in the south east are down to a new variant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

Does this mean that this new vaccine that's been trotted out is no longer any use?
Covid-19 is a corona virus, as is the common cold. That's never been beaten because it's constantly mutating. Does this mean that Covid-19 will be with us in perpetuity as it keeps mutating like the common cold?
So many questions. We need someone who knows what they're talking about, rather than politicians, to tell us what's really happening.

[baggy1]

Now that London has gone into effective lockdown this afternoon I suspect we can expect to be under restrictions again until the end of February. Given that you're normally so negative about the prospects for business in Brexit Britain, frankly I'm amazed that you're so sanguine. This isn't final push, it's going to be the final pushover for many lives, livelihoods and businesses.

Hardly sanguine at all, just realistic. If we'd have locked down earlier both times the numbers of infected would have been keep at a lower point. If the number in hospital is going up by, lets say, 1.5 each week then when you can see that pattern emerging you know you have roughly the same number of infected increases. If you lock down when the figure in hospital is 1,000 then you will have 1,500 the next week, 2,100 the week after and then it will start to drop where you can get it back down to manageable levels. The decrease takes longer than the increase.

If you lockdown when the hospitalisations are at 10,000 then in those 2 weeks you are at 21,000 and it will take a hell of a lot longer to bring that down to manageable levels and as the decrease is slower than the increase then you spend exponentionably longer periods in lockdown damaging the economy further.

Now, it would have helped if we had an effective test and trace system, but we don't because they're morons so we have to do something. As cases rise we have to do something, this kills people therefore going on the above earlier lockdowns are the logical approach. Also if you time them in line with school holidays then you lessen the impact on kids learning.

The problem you cause with your rhetoric is you cause the dithering and the pill, which still has to be swallowed, is bigger and more painful. 

Add that to other measures such as online tuition for universities, mandating working from home where possible and masks at all points then you can make an impossible situation just about more palatable.

Instead of that what have we done, locked down when the figure was at 10k in hospital and moved back to tiers when the figure was 13k, it's now 14k and moving in one direction. Until we get a vaccine there isn't anything else we can do.

Now, what to do about businesses - as mentioned many times, proper support packages based on profits is a good start, business rate relief to the end user, furlough where needed, and protection for landlords and tenants. However, and this is a key point, you refer regularly about the risks that investors in new companies take should be reflected in their rewards, I have no problem with this, but if that is the case then you can't moan when that risk materialises. And your 40% revenue down is meaningless as your costs will have also reduced - In theory you get your profits which have been subsidised, surely.

Just because this country is run by morons doesn't change the fact that we have to lock down until we have a better solution. The cavalry are coming apparently, Hancock was blobbing on TV about it.

[Protheroe]

And your 40% revenue down is meaningless as your costs will have also reduced - In theory you get your profits which have been subsidised, surely.

My business revenue is down 40%, my costs are down by 10%. My business receives no support whatsoever from the government.

[baggy1]

And your 40% revenue down is meaningless as your costs will have also reduced - In theory you get your profits which have been subsidised, surely.

My business revenue is down 40%, my costs are down by 10%. My business receives no support whatsoever from the government.

None at all?

[Tom Joad]

News that hasn't really been mentioned it that over 1000 new cases in the south east are down to a new variant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55308211

Does this mean that this new vaccine that's been trotted out is no longer any use?
Covid-19 is a corona virus, as is the common cold. That's never been beaten because it's constantly mutating. Does this mean that Covid-19 will be with us in perpetuity as it keeps mutating like the common cold?
So many questions. We need someone who knows what they're talking about, rather than politicians, to tell us what's really happening.

Why does a huge part of me think that they are shouting this NEW variant from the rooftops to assure Londoners  that tier 3 is necessary? The virus will always mutate and has almost certainly been doing so all along.

[Derek Hardballs]

Does anyone else find the faux hand wringing of right wingers suddenly caring about the poorest and most vulnerable hugely hypocritical? They cut public health by 40%, cut support for the disabled, placed millions on Universal Credit plunging many into further debt, allowed the gap between rich and poor to grow, cut youth services, slashed budgets to local government who in turn cut budgets in libraries, front line services, support for local charities etc but now we are to believe they care!

I don’t recall any concern during the austerity years, in fact some seemed to enjoy slashing budgets as some sort of righteous campaign against the undeserving poor. I say bah him bug to their ‘concern’.

Before Covid