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This weeks figures are showing a reduction in the excess deaths of about 500 (effectively statistically speaking 500 people that died early in 2020) for the week 28 (10th July). So despite, protests, celebrations and general easing of lockdown we are not seeing the immediate spike that was worried about. Excess death figure for E&W is now about 62k compared with 2019 and about 54.5k against the 5YA. Under 45s just over 100 so statistically not applicable, under 65s are just under 5.5k and still the main impact being on those over 65 with 56.5k.
Hospital admissions are hard to judge because the data only goes up to the 9th July, and patients in hospital is slowly decreasing with data up until the 16th July. same story with ventilated patients.
All 'positive' news (as positive as reporting deaths can be) but definitely moving in the right direction.
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(07-21-2020, 01:38 PM)baggy1 Wrote: This weeks figures are showing a reduction in the excess deaths of about 500 (effectively statistically speaking 500 people that died early in 2020) for the week 28 (10th July). So despite, protests, celebrations and general easing of lockdown we are not seeing the immediate spike that was worried about. Excess death figure for E&W is now about 62k compared with 2019 and about 54.5k against the 5YA. Under 45s just over 100 so statistically not applicable, under 65s are just under 5.5k and still the main impact being on those over 65 with 56.5k.
Hospital admissions are hard to judge because the data only goes up to the 9th July, and patients in hospital is slowly decreasing with data up until the 16th July. same story with ventilated patients.
All 'positive' news (as positive as reporting deaths can be) but definitely moving in the right direction.
Cheers for positive news!
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Week ending 17th July figures are now on the ONS site and we've had another week of below average deaths. Compared with 2019 and the 5 years average there are about 250 less deaths for the week in England and Wales. We're still running at around 61.7k excess deaths for the year but for the 5th week running we have less deaths than the 5YA - the total against the 5YA figure is around 1250 less deaths for those 5 weeks.
Other figures worth noting - the admissions into hospitals are still slowly dropping - down to 163 as of the 15th July, as is the number of patients in hospital (1445 on 23rd July), and people on ventilators (104 on the 24th July).
Again all relatively good news and despite the worries with relaxed lockdown and people moving about more freely we don't appear to be having any increases in any figures. Long may it continue.
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07-31-2020, 02:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2020, 02:16 PM by Brentbaggie.)
I’m afraid my concerns re infection rate has been borne out. Rising to 4200 this week for 7 day average from 2800 last week. Not good.
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Using the infection rate can be misleading as the two figures you have quoted were created using different approaches. As the identification of cases becomes more sophisticated the testing focusses on specific locations which in turn identifies more cases. Previously the cases may have been there but it captured.
Hospital admissions is the best data to identify any increase and currently it is pretty flat (up to 29th July)
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07-31-2020, 08:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2020, 08:24 PM by Brentbaggie.)
So you think the increased use of lockdown and spikes contradict hospital admissions and the amount of infections are flat rather than rising? Explain?
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07-31-2020, 08:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2020, 09:02 PM by baggy1.)
The amount of infections in a community will lead to a certain level of hospital admissions using pure statistics based on there being an equal likelihood of spread. E.g. if you have 1000 people infected and of that 1000 there are 100 that would need hospital treatment, and of that 100 in hospital 10 would die then you can realistically expect that if there are 2000 infections then each of the other numbers would double also.
Seeing as we have never had a good measure of infections then the only figure we can say with certainty is the hospital admission figures. As they are not going up it can be reasonable to assume that the infections aren’t going up either, which leads us to understand that the infections were always there, just not measured.
Does that make sense?
It has to be added that there is a lot to learn about this disease and I am basing my theory simply on statistical likelihood,
It’s probably worth pointing out that they are dealing with local lockdowns now as well which indicates that they have seen an increase in hospital admissions or 111 / 999 calls in a particular area, and followed that up with increased testing in that area.
This fucker keeps moving around and we a playing, as Johnson said, whack-a-mole.
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I think given hospital admissions are as a result of serious infections that lag well behind actual infection those numbers are representative of the situation 10-14 days ago. Infection rates issued by the ONS are Based on the latest daily samples and are therefore much more up to date. I admire your optimism but feel it is somewhat misplaced.
