UK Covid death toll

[The liquidator]

It's like the brexit debate 4 years on.

[Ossian]

I'm lucky enough to have a wife who works in pharma and has access to everything and more...

That's certainly a lot to be going on with.

[JOK]

I'm lucky enough to have a wife who works in pharma and has access to everything and more...

That's certainly a lot to be going on with.

If you have everything  Just how can you have more?

[billybassett]

I'm lucky enough to have a wife who works in pharma and has access to everything and more...

That's certainly a lot to be going on with.

If you have everything  Just how can you have more?

Ask Rishi

[baggy1]

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It's not a manipulation. It basically shows - as it supposed to - that even measured to the worst weeks over the last X years it's in the ballpark.

i.e it's not lethal and hence why I'm still awaiting the answer to this Q

Do you think the actions we've taken since June are net beneficial, in terms of the full package of health, wellbeing, education, business etc for the 98%+ of people, or not?

If you do then show me the equation.
If you don't then why are we doing it?

Of course it's a manipulation, it's also factually incorrect - it takes the highest figure from that week over a 5 year period, and then adds a bit to that figure "adjusting for population growth" and only then is 'in the ball bark. The actual figure was 10,152 in 2016 (I'm guessing he's using 2016 as that allows the larger population growth estimate) and inflating it by 700 for population growth - that's approximately a 7% population growth in 4 years as an estimate. We have a census every 10 years and the last one was in 2011, the growth in population in the 10 years from 2001 was 7.2%, so based on that do you think having a 7% growth in 4 years as an estimate is to be balanced or to get to the answer he wanted. The reasonable approach is to take the 5 year average for that week and measure against that, unless you want to start with the answer you want.

As for your question, 1stly since June there have been very little restrictions until recently. We're in a lockdown because hospitalisations and deaths were rising and when that starts we know the outcome. Even Sweden, the great freedom model, have realised that letting life go on as normal and everyone looking after themselves causes more people to die. Your argument is becoming more and more an isolated view because as time goes on we can see the actual results of minimal lockdown (In Sweden, a much higher death rate than comparable countries) are worse than not locking down. the problem is that you are being so stubborn with your view that you will not change it.

In balance, you have some points that appear reasonable, testing will give out excess false positive from what you say - I would rather err on the side of caution tbh and if a small proportion of those tested have to isolate unnecessarily for a couple of weeks then so be it. We are in this position mainly because of govt dithering both at the start and again now, if we had locked down earlier both times we could have had shorter lockdowns. If we had started work on an effective test and trace situation earlier instead of lining pockets we would have had a better system now.

And no, I don't have an equation, simply facts on rising hospitalisations and excess deaths which coincide with each other tell me there is a problem. Getting on with life as normal will simply mean more deaths (which are currently running at about 14% more than an average year)

[baggy1]

And onto week 45s (week ended 6th November) figures and unfortunately they don't look good. Compared with the 5 year average there are just short of 1.5k more deaths than normal at this time of year and compared with 2020 there are 1.1k more. 11,812 deaths compared with (2019) 10,697 and 5YA (10,331). That means that over the last 4 weeks we have had over 4k more deaths than the 5 year average. These figures all for England and Wales only. The year to date excess death is now at 58.5k against the 5YA and 65k compared with 2020.

There are some positive pieces of news coming out this week around vaccines and mega testing facilities for the future so there is light at the end of the tunnel.

And on a personal note, this is all very depressing for all around me at the moment, but there isn't a simple way out of this. For those that feel the cure is worse than the disease, it simply isn't. We are entering into a phase where covid can transmit easier, we're indoors more, large groups are getting together, schools and colleges are meaning it can spread and it simply is. There isn't a simple solution.

And I apologise if the weekly stats are boring some people but as I have been doing them for so long I think that some on here find them useful. I'm not looking for platitudes there folks, I know some find them useful and I would be looking at the info myself anyway.

Apart from the vaccine news this week, I think the biggest point that needs to be considered is the situation in Sweden and their new approach. They took a view that they would see how things went with less restrictions and nobody knew if it was right or wrong, we all had opinions which were just wind. They've realised now that the approach they took has caused more damage than not taking the lockdown approach. There is no global conspiracy here, there is a virus that is in virtually every country on the planet causing deaths and it will multiply exponentially unless we take strict measures to contain it until we can live with it. At the moment we can't live with it.

[billybassett]

And onto week 45s (week ended 6th November) figures and unfortunately they don't look good. Compared with the 5 year average there are just short of 1.5k more deaths than normal at this time of year and compared with 2020 there are 1.1k more. 11,812 deaths compared with (2019) 10,697 and 5YA (10,331). That means that over the last 4 weeks we have had over 4k more deaths than the 5 year average. These figures all for England and Wales only. The year to date excess death is now at 58.5k against the 5YA and 65k compared with 2020.

There are some positive pieces of news coming out this week around vaccines and mega testing facilities for the future so there is light at the end of the tunnel.

And on a personal note, this is all very depressing for all around me at the moment, but there isn't a simple way out of this. For those that feel the cure is worse than the disease, it simply isn't. We are entering into a phase where covid can transmit easier, we're indoors more, large groups are getting together, schools and colleges are meaning it can spread and it simply is. There isn't a simple solution.

And I apologise if the weekly stats are boring some people but as I have been doing them for so long I think that some on here find them useful. I'm not looking for platitudes there folks, I know some find them useful and I would be looking at the info myself anyway.

Apart from the vaccine news this week, I think the biggest point that needs to be considered is the situation in Sweden and their new approach. They took a view that they would see how things went with less restrictions and nobody knew if it was right or wrong, we all had opinions which were just wind. They've realised now that the approach they took has caused more damage than not taking the lockdown approach. There is no global conspiracy here, there is a virus that is in virtually every country on the planet causing deaths and it will multiply exponentially unless we take strict measures to contain it until we can live with it. At the moment we can't live with it.

In your opinion.

Without going over old ground you've no idea whether excess deaths are actually covid related or not. In fact the data tells you at the moment that most aren't covid related. You're still to respond directly to the Q about total net costs/benefits of our approach since June. But I can see from this statement that you believe what we have done is overall cost beneficial. And you've still not explained what's happened to every other respiratory illness since June.

As for your statement about Sweden: "They've realised now that the approach they took has caused more damage than not taking the lockdown approach". What a complete whitewash of what's happened there by you in that statement. Got to laugh at that one - calling me one-eyed and then putting that down in black and white. They've been having mass gatherings, concerts, no lockdown, economy ticking along, less deaths per cumulative total per 1 million population, retail and hospitality open all hours. They have now decided to take some measures - no doubt under pressure from their populous and wider orgs. Might or might not be the right thing to do but to come out with that porky well well...

Funny how you quickly latch on to Sweden but you make no reference to a country who has locked down much harder than we have. Let's take Argentina. Still under massive restrictions. Full masks, draconian lockdown that has basically been in place since March, no travel into the country, no public transport. Look how well they've done.

Makes a mockery of the sense that covid can be controlled by locking down and wearing masks. If it worked we'd see a difference across countries who took harder measures as opposed to those that didn't. PANDA have some interesting data on this that shows no correlation whatsoever.

[baggy1]

Nobody has ever said it can be controlled, it is about containing it until we get a vaccine. Less measures = less containment

And looking at your points in more detail - you seem to have some bizarre theory that excess deaths can be attributed to one cause or another. This, allied with you use of graphs that you don't understand or in most cases are simply wrong, really highlights how little you understand what is happening. You seem to think that there is no correlation between excess deaths in week 44 (1,481) and reported covid deaths in that same week by date of death (2,117) - those two figures are basically saying we have over 2,000 people who have died within 28 days of having a virus that is killing people and amazingly we have about 1,500 more people that have died this year than the average and there is a virus going around that wasn't here before. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.

Billy I've really tried to engage you to discuss points but your theory that this is some form of worldwide governmental control with a plan is simply bonkers. Governments are doing the best that can to contain a virus, some are doing it better than others because they are actually good at their jobs, some are failing because they are shit at it.

And as for your stance on wearing masks - grow up, what harm is it doing by wearing a mask. Sweden has had the worst outcome of all Nordic nations because they didn't put tougher measures in place, they are now addressing that by implementing them. And as for Argentina - they had few cases at the start with a strict lockdown but those cases rose when the restrictions eased.

And no I don't have a mathematical formula to show that this way is best, but what i do know is that this virus is spreading as shown through hospitalisations and it is killing more people than normal as shown through excess deaths.

[foreveralbion]

Think it's fairly clear on the ons site that the majority of excess deaths are down to covid.

Strange quirk on the first wave that deaths that were non covid were well above average as well. 

Billy not sure were your info is coming from but the vast majority of covid deaths are with covid as the underlying cause.

Lockdowns quite evidently will control the virus but this is offset against an unknown knock on effect in the future. 

Still think the lockdown could have been done differently but totally understand why governments have gone this route

[billybassett]

Nobody has ever said it can be controlled, it is about containing it until we get a vaccine. Less measures = less containment

And looking at your points in more detail - you seem to have some bizarre theory that excess deaths can be attributed to one cause or another. This, allied with you use of graphs that you don't understand or in most cases are simply wrong, really highlights how little you understand what is happening. You seem to think that there is no correlation between excess deaths in week 44 (1,481) and reported covid deaths in that same week by date of death (2,117) - those two figures are basically saying we have over 2,000 people who have died within 28 days of having a virus that is killing people and amazingly we have about 1,500 more people that have died this year than the average and there is a virus going around that wasn't here before. WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK.

Billy I've really tried to engage you to discuss points but your theory that this is some form of worldwide governmental control with a plan is simply bonkers. Governments are doing the best that can to contain a virus, some are doing it better than others because they are actually good at their jobs, some are failing because they are shit at it.

And as for your stance on wearing masks - grow up, what harm is it doing by wearing a mask. Sweden has had the worst outcome of all Nordic nations because they didn't put tougher measures in place, they are now addressing that by implementing them. And as for Argentina - they had few cases at the start with a strict lockdown but those cases rose when the restrictions eased.

And no I don't have a mathematical formula to show that this way is best, but what i do know is that this virus is spreading as shown through hospitalisations and it is killing more people than normal as shown through excess deaths.

Again WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK - do you know they all died of covid or had it mentioned on the death certificate within 28days of a positive test? And where have all the flu deaths gone. Oh yes we've cured it. But the PCR test we can't talk about because it's not important. What a load of bollocks.

I'm not wearing a mask makes no difference to anyone else (and if I had actual symptoms I wouldn't go out) and as far as I'm concerned it affects my health more so don't tell me to grow up sunshine. Never was a useful method for stopping transmission - unless you're going against years of WHO research and their guidance as per Oct 2019. But you've become conned and locked it and Chinese. Oh well

Your stance on Sweden is bizarre. Your follow up on Argentina so far wide of the mark. I'll give you another Peru.

I've never denied the awful amount of deaths we've had. All I've asked for is you to engage on the topic of whether since June current measures have been net beneficial to society in general. You've always dodged it. The fact that the average age of Covid deaths is higher than the average age of total deaths should tell you how to answer that question.