UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

I think you're probably misreading my data - i'm talking about excess deaths not cases and only using cases for comparing the excess deaths to the equivalent point for hospitalisations. We have to use previous trends to understand where we may be going again.

One major difference this time will be that old folk won't be sent off to infect the other old folk and so I would expect the excess deaths to be less, but if let run wild it will kill more people, of that there isn't any doubt. There are approx 12m people in the country over 65 that are vulnerable to this virus, we need to have a viable solution that doesn't risk their health.

[Ted Maul]

Not strictly true billy, the figures that are showing is for all deaths including influenza and other respiratory illnesses and is still higher this year. You get into problems when you start trying to compare what has been written on a death cert. I'm trying to keep this simple with the 'there are more / less people dying this year' approach - that way we can see the impact of anything different this year (clearly covid).

Like I say next week will be a really big indicator of a second wave or more a second ripple, let's not make any bones about it, there are more deaths this year than ever and by a considerable enough amount to take out population growth. We stand at 55k more deaths in E&W than the 5YA and nearly 62k against 2019. For balance, since the end of May that figure has been lower (only 2k excess deaths in 20 weeks) but it is rising again.

Well you're assuming that covid cases and admissions are being logged appropriately.

2 examples from me just this week. Footballing friend went in with an ankle issue - turns out it was fractured. After a scan he was asked to have a test (please say no) he tested positive. One more case for you.

Old lady we know goes in for a routine check up, has to stay a bit longer as thought she had heart murmur. Was tested. Positive. No symptoms. Another case for you.

I mean come on. Stop fucking testing healthy people with no symptoms for a flu. If people can't see that's madness and something we've never done for flu then I'm afraid humanity is going to hit rock bottom very soon.

And before anyone says it, it is tragic 45K have died though we already know from the Sunday Times reporting this week many of those won't be covid (because of the reporting) and many never went to hospital because they were scared by the govt into not going and thus died when they could have been saved.

I mean have you heard that New Zealand are likely to set up quarantine camps for people. People can be forcibly removed to camps if there is a risk they may infect others in their households. They will be detained without charge, or conviction of any crime, until they agree to a test & it’s negative. Jesus christ it's downright scary and fascist.

In fairness to New Zealand, they also had a stadium full of people to watch a rugby match the other week and have had barely any deaths.

Swings and roundabouts.

[billybassett]

I think you're probably misreading my data - i'm talking about excess deaths not cases and only using cases for comparing the excess deaths to the equivalent point for hospitalisations. We have to use previous trends to understand where we may be going again.

One major difference this time will be that old folk won't be sent off to infect the other old folk and so I would expect the excess deaths to be less, but if let run wild it will kill more people, of that there isn't any doubt. There are approx 12m people in the country over 65 that are vulnerable to this virus, we need to have a viable solution that doesn't risk their health.

Again you're assuming they all died OF covid. Are we now not seeing a rise in deaths because people didn't get treatment over the summer?

They didn't. They had it on their death certificate, 28 days blah blah.

[baggy1]

This gets circular as an argument and I would say that there will be a potential for both of those to be included in excess deaths - again why I try to stick to the excess deaths figure because without Covid those excess deaths wouldn't have occurred (directly or indirectly). And we've discussed this before and I still haven't seen any argument against locking down in March, it was needed otherwise the 1st wave would have kept increasing - the deaths only started falling 3 weeks after lockdown.

It's too early to say if the 2nd wave is because of covid deaths but it does appear to be happening, whatever the reason - denying covid won't make one ounce of difference to that fact. We just have to wait and see how much of an impact it will have.

And I have never quoted the figures of covid deaths in anything I have posted btw.

[billybassett]

This is interesting:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gover...2020-09-25

No correlation, in t his dataset, between a country's lockdown stringency and its mortality impact.

I've only sense checked it but I know Argentina and Israel were hard lockers and Belarus and Sweden as we know less so.

---

This gets circular as an argument and I would say that there will be a potential for both of those to be included in excess deaths - again why I try to stick to the excess deaths figure because without Covid those excess deaths wouldn't have occurred (directly or indirectly). And we've discussed this before and I still haven't seen any argument against locking down in March, it was needed otherwise the 1st wave would have kept increasing - the deaths only started falling 3 weeks after lockdown.

It's too early to say if the 2nd wave is because of covid deaths but it does appear to be happening, whatever the reason - denying covid won't make one ounce of difference to that fact. We just have to wait and see how much of an impact it will have.

And I have never quoted the figures of covid deaths in anything I have posted btw.

I'm not denying Covid. That would be like denying flu. It's happening because it's flu season.

[baggy1]

That chart is a point in time chart billy, it will change in a couple of weeks if I'm reading it right. Belarus figures may be inaccurate as they deny it's existence and they beat up their protesters with 'government' troops and sweden was a car crash compared with its neighbours.

And Whats happening because it's flu season?

[billybassett]

That chart is a point in time chart billy, it will change in a couple of weeks if I'm reading it right. Belarus figures may be inaccurate as they deny it's existence and they beat up their protesters with 'government' troops and sweden was a car crash compared with its neighbours.

The point is at any pt in time there's no correlation and the movement is very interesting at a country level.
Clearly shows that all we did by locking down in the first place was kick the can down the line. Wales and Scotland's lockdowns now will see it return in a ripple just for Christmas - saft fookers the celts

[baggy1]

The lockdown was to give time for the NHS to get over the worst part whilst our erstwhile leaders devised a plan to help reduce the infections by identifying where they are and managing the situation in micro-lockdowns. They obviously thought fuck that for a game of soldiers it's easier just to lock down the North.

[foreveralbion]

if you genuinely think that either local or national lockdowns are the answer how on earth can they work if schools and unis are still open?

[billybassett]

I think they did the right thing in March as they weren't quite sure what the virus was. Reports from Italy and China suggested 3% mortality rate.

Ioannidis paper across 61 global studies now shows 0.12-0.2%. i. the fucking e. flu

There's absolutely no excuse for it now. In fact they are killing people by doing it.