UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

I was looking at the figures for the UK as a whole and for some reason weeks 23 in 2019 (the last available) had a small spike in deaths - 2k more than week 22 and 700 more than week 24. I've looked into it but can't see any reason for it (apart from a Trump visit!) which may have an impact on the comparable figures. This may have been why the excess death figures compared to normal are similar.

I'm hoping that as the numbers get closer together we can start to reduce that excess death number but we are not quite there yet.

There is a interesting article on the beeb today showing excess death figures from around the world https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-53073046 , it points out it is too early to give overall figures because of different timelines but we are still one of the worst globally, considering our wealth and health availability. It really has been an alrighty fuck up.

[baggy1]

Matt Hancock made a statement last night that the deaths last week were no more than the average for that week in previous years, he went onto asterix it a bit later by saying that statistically speaking the difference wasn't material. This will be interesting to see in the next couple of weeks figures if that is true because that will a major step forward in the progress against covid.

One figure that I have been watching is the admissions to hospitals which, like deaths, is on a slow decreasing trend line. The admissions for the last 7 days (data available up to the 15th June) has averaged at 470 against the previous 7 days average of 560, 690 and 800. Using those figures we are about a month away from being virtually clear of new hospital admissions. Things are definitely looking better.

One thing that does irk me is why isn't there more compulsory wearing of masks in public, or more to the point why wouldn't people wear a mask. It might not be that effective (debatable obviously) but what is the harm in doing it when it 'could' reduce risk of infection.

[Baggie_Nick]

Matt Hancock made a statement last night that the deaths last week were no more than the average for that week in previous years, he went onto asterix it a bit later by saying that statistically speaking the difference wasn't material. This will be interesting to see in the next couple of weeks figures if that is true because that will a major step forward in the progress against covid.

One figure that I have been watching is the admissions to hospitals which, like deaths, is on a slow decreasing trend line. The admissions for the last 7 days (data available up to the 15th June) has averaged at 470 against the previous 7 days average of 560, 690 and 800. Using those figures we are about a month away from being virtually clear of new hospital admissions. Things are definitely looking better.

One thing that does irk me is why isn't there more compulsory wearing of masks in public, or more to the point why wouldn't people wear a mask. It might not be that effective (debatable obviously) but what is the harm in doing it when it 'could' reduce risk of infection.

Agree regarding masks.

An observation made whilst walking along the road looking into passing buses is that a fair amount aren't wearing masks? I thought this was law - correct me if I'm wrong by all means. One can only assume that they may be wearing the masks when they board and then remove them when they are seated which kind of defeats the object of the whole thing. The ignorance of some is astounding.

[baggy1]

Week 24 (week ended 12th June) figures have just been released and the excess death count is still growing but again at a very reduced rate (an increase of 531). I hesitate to use the word 'good' but it is good news that we are down to less than 100 excess deaths a day now and that figure is falling week on week (569, 1564, 2004 and 4301 for the previous weeks).

There was an important figure in last nights press conference - the doc said that the prevalence on the community was now 1 in every 1700 people compared to one in every 400 a few weeks ago. It's still out there but you are much less likely to come across it basically.

Hospital admissions are also down to less than 400 (latest data is for 19th June) a day. All positive but it's not gone yet so a real need for awareness and continued hand washing.

[Brentbaggie]

The figure that concerns me is the infection rate not the deaths rate (I don't mean that deaths don't matter btw!). The notified infection rate is still currently hovering around 1000 per day and has plateaued. It would be wonderful if the doc on last night's press conference was correct and that the incidence of infection is falling as a result but then I would have thought this would be reflected in the daily infection rate by now.

In Italy & Spain once the infection rate started to fall it did so and continued to fall quite rapidly. I'm still of the opinion that we came out of lockdown a week to 10 days early and that it would have made more sense to do so when our infection rate was similar to those countries at the time they lifted the total lockdown measure.

[baggy1]

I think we'll have localised flare ups going forward which is why the track and trace app would have been so useful. We're running a bit blind and will have to rely on hospital admissions as an indicator which might be too late as the virus will have been infecting people up to 2 weeks before. The management of that project has been shockingly bad when there was an off the shelf version available from the start. However at least the tories have looked after the pockets of their mates, so at least someone has benefitted.

[Baggie_Nick]

Increase today.

Should we be worried?

[Ossian]

Increase today.

Should we be worried?

Well, it's obviously proving a bit more obdurate than some of the more optimistic daily updates from the government would have had us believe. Mind, they were probably made with fingers crossed for more than one reason.

What I'm wondering is whether the stubbornness of the virus, combined with the behaviour of some of the people flooding to the coast and other places, will result in Wales and Scotland being in no hurry to open the borders with England. Speaking as someone who is desperate to return to both places, I wouldn't blame them one bit.

[Brentbaggie]

The death rate is not a good guide. The infection rate is the one we should be really worried about - unless you're dead of course - and that is now stubbornly around the 1000 mark. Hospital admissions have fallen which is welcome but the numbers becoming infected should have fallen much further by now - as they did in Spain and Italy. Still reckon we came out of lockdown a week - 10 days too early. Now it's a free-for-all as far as many people are concerned - except they're not concerned.

[Ossian]

My view is that we - and by 'we' I mean the government - created our own dilemma by going into lockdown later than other countries; a decision taken seemingly on the basis of nothing more substantial than bluster and a misplaced idea that we could somehow blag it. The delayed start inevitably led to a delayed exit and the inescapable conclusion that we had now fallen behind those same countries.

The government then couldn't handle the pressure that went with the consequences of their original indecision and have decided to implement an easing sequence based on the same flawed approach that led to their inertia in the first place.

By any measure Johnson and the cabinet don't come out of this well.