(07-07-2021, 03:29 PM)baggy1 Wrote:(06-30-2021, 04:09 PM)baggy1 Wrote: 16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 5th November)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec - 13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw) (Lockdown 6th January)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)
17th Feb - 16,458 (0.79 x pw)
24th Feb - 13,007 (0.79 x pw)
3rd Mar - 9,594 (0.74 x pw)
10th Mar - 6,945 (0.73 x pw)
17th Mar - 5,397 (0.77 x pw)
24th Mar - 4,005 (0.74 x pw)
31st Mar - 3,084 (0.77 x pw)
7th April - 2,486 (0.81 x pw)
14th April - 1,972 (0.79 x pw)
21st April - 1,609 (0.82 x pw)
28th April - 1,278 (0.79 x pw)
5th May - 1,032 (0.81 x pw)
12th May - 907 (0.88 x pw)
19th May - 757 (0.83 x pw)
26th May - 745 (0.98 x pw)
2nd June - 801 (1.08 x pw)
9th June - 876 (1.09 x pw)
16th June - 1,057 (1.21 x pw)
23rd June - 1,255 (1.19 x pw)
30th June - 1,500 (1.2 x pw)
7th July - 2,144 (1.43 x pw)
14th July - 3,110 (1.45 x pw)
A concerning week for numbers in hospital. The increase week on week is 43% for the numbers in hospital in England. That number is very comparable to when we started on the 2nd wave last September but it must be remembered that this is one week's data and we, like then, are dealing with relatively low numbers. Unfortunately the previous examples of these sort of numbers only go one way until we lockdown. The timing of the removing all restrictions press conference is surprising given the data that is out there. One thing that appears to be happening is that the vaccine is working in reducing the impact on the individual but it doesn't appear to be doing much for reducing spread.
The positive news is that over 86% of the adult population has had at least 1 jab (65% have had both) but given the stats above it looks like we really need to get that % as high as possible. 14% of the adult population is over 7M, there is a lot of potential hospitalisations in that number. We appear to have solved the deaths issue but we really need to address the hospital capacity issue because if they get overrun again we get into an another world of cancelled procedures, staff off sick etc.
From this number in hospital a 30% weekly increase gets us to 10k at the end of August and 20k mid way through September, those timings put us right up against the flu season.
Another bad week for hospitalisations, 45% increase on last week which makes it 7 weeks of growth now, 2 at 10%, 3 at 20% and 2 at over 40%. Current trends take us to 10k in hospital by the 2nd week in August and 30k by the end of that month. Now having said that there could be some ease up when the kids aren't at school and obviously we are getting more people vaccinated. I now know of two families with teenage / early 20s kids who have both had to quarantine because the kids have got it - it doesn't put them in hospital but it isn't pleasant for them.
87.4% of adults have had their 1st dose and that is going up by 0.1% a day so 26 days to get to the 90% mark, and 66.7% have had both doses with that going up at 0.2% or 0.3% a day which puts them about 2 and a half months off that 90%.
Opening up without restrictions at this point is a gamble. Fingers crossed they know more than the trends suggest.