03-10-2021, 01:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2021, 01:26 PM by backsidebaggie.)
That pattern of the under 50s hospitalised runs pretty much throughout the whole thing for 12 months I believe though. Its very small as a percentage.
And I still think if significant numbers of younger folks choose not to have the vaccine, that still won't equate to half the population, nowhere near (as take up is very high in over 60s). I still reckon vaccination will be around 70-75% overall (that's my gut feeling - maybe half of the youngest age group have it? It'll get less as we go down each age group IMO). I really can't see, given the small percentage of under 50s which end up in hospital, that it should put a strain on the system if a reasonable proportion of healthy youngsters don't have the vaccine, as they are such low risk at becoming seriously ill, unless I'm missing something. Under 50s make up 1% of deaths I think (and most of those are vulnerable, who will be vaccinated). Please correct me if I'm wrong!
The international travel thing is an issue, but I can't see any way around it other than a good testing procedure. There'll be no holiday companies left if we have another year off, that's the thing. Countries relying on tourism are desperate.
If you're right about the strain on the NHS - you may well be, I'm just using gut feeling and fag packet calculations (and not even good ones!), this reiterates to me that we are fucked though. Because significant percentages of the younger generations are going to decline the vaccine IMO. Although I still think the total vaccinated, across all ages, will be much more than 50%.
And I still think if significant numbers of younger folks choose not to have the vaccine, that still won't equate to half the population, nowhere near (as take up is very high in over 60s). I still reckon vaccination will be around 70-75% overall (that's my gut feeling - maybe half of the youngest age group have it? It'll get less as we go down each age group IMO). I really can't see, given the small percentage of under 50s which end up in hospital, that it should put a strain on the system if a reasonable proportion of healthy youngsters don't have the vaccine, as they are such low risk at becoming seriously ill, unless I'm missing something. Under 50s make up 1% of deaths I think (and most of those are vulnerable, who will be vaccinated). Please correct me if I'm wrong!
The international travel thing is an issue, but I can't see any way around it other than a good testing procedure. There'll be no holiday companies left if we have another year off, that's the thing. Countries relying on tourism are desperate.
If you're right about the strain on the NHS - you may well be, I'm just using gut feeling and fag packet calculations (and not even good ones!), this reiterates to me that we are fucked though. Because significant percentages of the younger generations are going to decline the vaccine IMO. Although I still think the total vaccinated, across all ages, will be much more than 50%.