02-16-2021, 10:45 AM
(02-15-2021, 12:43 PM)Protheroe Wrote: I was on a call with BB Healthcare Investment Trust this morning. They're very bearish on things 'opening up' on any scale within the next 4-5 months due to the continuing ability of the virus to be transmitted by those already vaccinated. They projected boosters for varitants in the Autumn and another Winter of masks in shops.
Great.
I would have imagined that is what everyone expected with the knowledge at this point, there will be an annual booster programme and short term mask wearing is something that isn't really a surprise. I would imagine that local lockdowns when cases appear would also be a possiblity, but if it allows us wider freedoms then it really is a small imposition.
Having just seen the Week 5 data for deaths in E&W which is again nearly 45% higher than the average for this time of year, added to the 1st 5 weeks of the year adding nearly 26k deaths to the average and nearly 20k more than the worst individual weeks combined for the last decade, then it really is about time people realised this is probably something that we need to take seriously.
17,192 people died in E&W in the week to the 5th Feb which is well above the average as shown above. The total for the 46 weeks that we have seen covid impacting on death figures in E&W is now 106k more than the 5 year average. Comparitively with the death rate based on population we are running at the same level as rates from the 90s and there are a number of adjustments still to make with that figure that only look like making it worse than that. And it must be remembered that the figures we have are with measures to restrict spread and therefore death in place.
There are definitely some good signs out there though, the numbers in hospital in England dropped below the peak of the 1st wave this weekend and they appear to be dropping at a slightly faster rate than the 1st wave. Also over 15M people have received their 1st dose of the vaccine which means that the equivalent of everybody over 60 will have received that by the end of this week.