UK Covid death toll

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16th Sept - 929
23rd Sept - 1,439 (1.55 x previous week)
30th Sept - 2,036 (1.41 x pw)
7th Oct - 3,066 (1.51 x pw)
14th Oct - 4,313 (1.41 x pw)
21st Oct - 6,271 (1.45 x pw)
28th Oct - 9,070 (1.45 x pw)
4th Nov - 11,037 (1.22 x pw)
11th Nov - 12,730 (1.15 x pw)
18th Nov - 14,490 (1.14 x pw)
25th Nov - 14,240 (0.98 x pw)
2nd Dec - 13,212 (0.93 x pw)
9th Dec -  13,467 (1.02 x pw)
16th Dec - 15,465 (1.15 x pw)
23rd Dec - 17,834 (1.15 x pw)
30th Dec - 22,713 (1.27 x pw)
6th Jan - 27,727 (1.22 x pw)
13th Jan - 32,689 (1.18 x pw)
20th Jan - 33,886 (1.04 x pw)
27th Jan - 30,846 (0.91 x pw)
3rd Feb - 26,374 (0.86 x pw)
10th Feb - 20,926 (0.79 x pw)

And after the 1st full week of numbers dropping it is quite something that the % reduction is about 15% which was very similar to the % decreases from the 1st wave. It does show the correlation and gives us an ability to predict outcomes with some confidence. Based on that % we will be at around 7k in hospital by the end of March. There are currently around 26k in hospital.

It also looks like we are nearly at 5M doses of the vaccine a day which is a fantastic figure. 10.5M people with the 1st jab is equivalent to all over 70s and just less than a third of the 65-70 group. Early signs are that it is effective which is great news especially around its ability too reduce transmission.

Hospitalisations this week have come down at a slightly faster rate than it did in the 1st wave by 20% which is mainly good news and if we continue at that rate we will get below the 10k in hospital by the 10th March which is about when they are looking to ease restrictions. Other good news is that as of today the number is below 20k but not quite down to the April peak of 18.6k yet.

And with 13.5M people having received the 1st jab things are moving along nicely on the vaccinations.