12-15-2020, 10:17 AM
Week ended 4th Dec (which takes up up to the end of lockdown) figures are out and show another 1608 excess deaths against the 5YA, and 1,487 more than 2019 with the majority of those being over 65 (1,211) plus 254 from the 45-65 group.
Looking at the stats from both the 1st and 2nd wave there is a pattern with hospitalisations. With the tier system in place the number increases at 1.4 times each week, with the lockdown it increases 1.2 times a week at first until peak and then reduces at 0.8 times a week. Using this the govt can plot and manage the outbreaks. Unfortunately by leaving it late and not going for long enough for this 2nd lockdown (we locked down with about 11k in hospital and reopened at about 13k) we have done the worst of both worlds - we've not reduced the number or contained it so that it is manageable and managed to fuck businesses at the same time.
I've heard the Captain hindsight line being used and it does piss me off, I started putting the hospital figures on this thread on the 23rd Sept because I could see a problem and I'm just looking at data, Sage originally called for a lockdown on the 21st Sept when the figures in hospital were 1300. Using the 1.2 and 0.8 calculations from above we could have had 6 weeks lockdown to the start of November and then opened up into tier 2 until the start of January - taking the 1.4 times growth figure that would have put us a 10.5k by Jan 2nd. We have another lockdown until mid Feb and we then have the number below 8k and we have the vaccine being rolled out.
So basically the govt has both fucked jobs and fucked lives with their dithering, and in the meantime they've got away with it to a degree because we're all arguing amongst ourselves about which is worse, death or jobs, or vaccine vs antivax, or is covid real or is it just a control mechanism, or mask or no mask. Really pissed off.
Looking at the stats from both the 1st and 2nd wave there is a pattern with hospitalisations. With the tier system in place the number increases at 1.4 times each week, with the lockdown it increases 1.2 times a week at first until peak and then reduces at 0.8 times a week. Using this the govt can plot and manage the outbreaks. Unfortunately by leaving it late and not going for long enough for this 2nd lockdown (we locked down with about 11k in hospital and reopened at about 13k) we have done the worst of both worlds - we've not reduced the number or contained it so that it is manageable and managed to fuck businesses at the same time.
I've heard the Captain hindsight line being used and it does piss me off, I started putting the hospital figures on this thread on the 23rd Sept because I could see a problem and I'm just looking at data, Sage originally called for a lockdown on the 21st Sept when the figures in hospital were 1300. Using the 1.2 and 0.8 calculations from above we could have had 6 weeks lockdown to the start of November and then opened up into tier 2 until the start of January - taking the 1.4 times growth figure that would have put us a 10.5k by Jan 2nd. We have another lockdown until mid Feb and we then have the number below 8k and we have the vaccine being rolled out.
So basically the govt has both fucked jobs and fucked lives with their dithering, and in the meantime they've got away with it to a degree because we're all arguing amongst ourselves about which is worse, death or jobs, or vaccine vs antivax, or is covid real or is it just a control mechanism, or mask or no mask. Really pissed off.