UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

Now that London has gone into effective lockdown this afternoon I suspect we can expect to be under restrictions again until the end of February. Given that you're normally so negative about the prospects for business in Brexit Britain, frankly I'm amazed that you're so sanguine. This isn't final push, it's going to be the final pushover for many lives, livelihoods and businesses.

Hardly sanguine at all, just realistic. If we'd have locked down earlier both times the numbers of infected would have been keep at a lower point. If the number in hospital is going up by, lets say, 1.5 each week then when you can see that pattern emerging you know you have roughly the same number of infected increases. If you lock down when the figure in hospital is 1,000 then you will have 1,500 the next week, 2,100 the week after and then it will start to drop where you can get it back down to manageable levels. The decrease takes longer than the increase.

If you lockdown when the hospitalisations are at 10,000 then in those 2 weeks you are at 21,000 and it will take a hell of a lot longer to bring that down to manageable levels and as the decrease is slower than the increase then you spend exponentionably longer periods in lockdown damaging the economy further.

Now, it would have helped if we had an effective test and trace system, but we don't because they're morons so we have to do something. As cases rise we have to do something, this kills people therefore going on the above earlier lockdowns are the logical approach. Also if you time them in line with school holidays then you lessen the impact on kids learning.

The problem you cause with your rhetoric is you cause the dithering and the pill, which still has to be swallowed, is bigger and more painful. 

Add that to other measures such as online tuition for universities, mandating working from home where possible and masks at all points then you can make an impossible situation just about more palatable.

Instead of that what have we done, locked down when the figure was at 10k in hospital and moved back to tiers when the figure was 13k, it's now 14k and moving in one direction. Until we get a vaccine there isn't anything else we can do.

Now, what to do about businesses - as mentioned many times, proper support packages based on profits is a good start, business rate relief to the end user, furlough where needed, and protection for landlords and tenants. However, and this is a key point, you refer regularly about the risks that investors in new companies take should be reflected in their rewards, I have no problem with this, but if that is the case then you can't moan when that risk materialises. And your 40% revenue down is meaningless as your costs will have also reduced - In theory you get your profits which have been subsidised, surely.

Just because this country is run by morons doesn't change the fact that we have to lock down until we have a better solution. The cavalry are coming apparently, Hancock was blobbing on TV about it.