UK Covid death toll

[baggy1]

This is more likely to be related to what Billy is saying. Excess deaths earlier in the year but nothing out of the ordinary since. 

Obviously this may rise as we enter the winter months but to what extent? And for what reason?


This seems to indicate that from week 11 through to week 44 of this year there have been excess non-covid deaths at home. Would these people have died if they had gone to hospital?

That's what I covered earlier BB - and agree, and also with Billy on the fact that this year since June we have been running pretty average. There is a slight up tick at the moment (2.5k excess over the last 3 weeks) which is why we need enhanced caution now. Does that warrant a months lockdown - I'm not certain, and if we had taken the 2 week circuit break when sage said then it would possibly have reduced that number but again that's speculation.

As for it isn't real - I am certain. It is.

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Possibly SM - if that's the case it isn't excess deaths and that's what I think Billy is getting confused over. To get a real understanding it has to be like for like.

Indeed - I was close

"[font="Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Therefore, our standard method defines the winter period as December to March and compares the number of deaths that occurred in this winter period with the average number of deaths occurring in the preceding August to November and the following April to July. The calculation used is: EWD = winter deaths - average non winter deaths"[/font]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationa...o2017final

Absolutely no use for comparing deaths in this year with any other year or a 5 year average then

  I'm going to compare the figures for these nice warm months against these nasty cold months - BREAKING NEWS - MORE PEOPLE DIE IN THE WINTER, we're going straight to our correspondent who we've put out in the rain and wind for a report.